As compared to the other vacancies around the league, the Raptors’ mess isn’t exactly an ideal landing spot.
If you haven’t already, do yourself a solid and read Blake’s take on the reports of the Raptors retaining Dwane Casey. Blake hits the nail on the head, bringing a bit of levity to what has become a sore spot for many Raptors fans, especially on this forum. Although it’s not what fans want to hear after a humiliating end to the season, there are valid reasons for Casey’s return.
To play devil’s advocate, I offer an alternate explanation as to why Casey has been retained, aside from what he has accomplished. Simply put, the Raptors situation isn’t exactly attractive, nor competitive, for a potential big-name upgrade.
The coaching market is red hot. The following teams will, almost certainly, have vacancies to fill: New Orleans Pelicans, Denver Nuggets, Orlando Magic and the Chicago Bulls. It’s also quite possible that another team like the Minnesota Timberwolves, Charlotte Hornets or Los Angeles Lakers joins the fray.
Therefore, the competition for the top name candidates will be intense. And from that perspective, the Raptors’ situation doesn’t quite stand out among the rest.
There are four major factors that influence coaches: the players in place, the salary, the role and the situation. The first two are pretty straight forward. More talent and more money makes a situation more attractive. The role refers to the power afforded to the situation, specifically with regards to control over basketball operations (as seen in Los Angeles, Detroit and San Antonio). The situation encompasses a multitude of small factors, including expectations, location and the organizational structure.
To that end, the Raptors don’t exactly have a competitive offer. The Raptors have some talented players, but no superstars. The Raptors should have money, but dealing with MLSE is a wild card and Casey has another $4 million owed to him. The Raptors can’t offer control over basketball operations because Masai Ujiri is here and the role is tricky, because the fanbase expects a winner and the management structure is in flux with Tim Leiweke leaving this summer.
Comparatively, the Bulls, Magic and Pelicans’ situations project as better landing spots. There’s no pressure to win immediately with the Magic and there’s tonnes of young talent in place. If a coach even susses out a playoff berth next season, he will be lauded. The Bulls have championship aspirations, but at least they have a a star-laden core in place and a few high-upside prospects (Tony Snell, Nikola Mirotic, Doug McDermott) on the roster. Finally, the Pelicans have the next megastar in Anthony Davis and a general manager on the hot seat.
The top name on the market is Tom Thibodeau, who might need to win the title to salvage his soured situation with the Bulls. The most obvious move is for him to take over in New Orleans to build yet another shutdown defense around Anthony Davis, who he coached on Team USA. If he angles hard enough, Thibodeau could probably finagle control of basketball operations as well, while reducing Dell Demps to handle day-to-day operations.
The next biggest name is probably Scott Brooks. The Nuggets and Magic are reportedly interested, and Brooks looks like a perfect fit in Orlando. He’s shown to be a tremendous developmental coach and the Magic offer the most promising set of prospects. If he can replicate what he did with the Thunder — raising Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, Serge Ibaka, James Harden, Steven Adams, Reggie Jackson and even Enes Kanter — the Magic ought to be thrilled.
The remaining head coaches are all questionable. The list of former coaches includes Scott Skiles, Mike Malone. Vinny Del Negro, Mike Woodson, Alvin Gentry, Mike D’Antoni, Nate McMillan and perhaps even Mark Jackson or Jeff Van Gundy. A few assistants could also be promoted, as names like Ron Adams (Warriors), Sean Sweeney (Bucks), Ettore Messina and Ime Udoka (Spurs) have become popular among fans. The NBA has also dabbled in the college ranks as well, though the trend has seemed to link developing teams with college coaches (Celtics, Jazz) before the Thunder broke the trend with Billy Donovan.
Within that list, there is no obvious candidate that would be guaranteed to improve the Raptors’ outlook. Personally, I think a coach like Gentry or D’Antoni would help develop and get more out of the roster than Casey would, but it’s far from a sure thing. Given the talent on the team, 45-50 wins seems like a reasonable outcome, and Casey has twice hit in that range. He has some very visible flaws and the team plays a flagrantly offensive brand of basketball, but it’s not all on Casey.
Ujiri has surely made inquiries to assess his options. But based on the market and the Raptors’ predicament, the top tier candidates on the market are probably looking past what Toronto has to offer. And if the alternative is then to grab someone for the sake of shuffling the rank and file, then what’s really the point? There might be some sense in waiting a year and seeing what comes of it.
I could be entirely off-base with this. I have no sources whatsoever and I’m just reading the situation given the information that has been reported. And although I’m certainly of the mind that an upgrade is needed, the options available to the Raptors might not be worth the hassle.
