It’s only Day 3 and I’m a bit “Ramadan’d out”, yet through pangs of hunger and hallucination, I can’t help but think about the upcoming draft.
The Raptors have the 20th pick, it’s not high enough to get anyone excited, yet not low enough for anyone completely not to care. The last time the Raptors had the 20th pick they picked Kareem Rush from Missouri in 2002, who got flipped on draft night for the brutal Chris Jefferies, and Lindsey Hunter who had a cup of coffee with the franchise. Side note, I once saw Kareem and his brother Jamaal Rush play in Kansas City, MO. Jamaal was the better player, but he also liked weed, and weed got the better of him before he got to the NBA.
They also selected Morris Peterson in the 2000 draft with the 21st pick, and we know how that turned out. At 16 in 2005 they selected Joey Graham, who ended up having the body of an NBA player, but alas, the skill-set of a D2 player. There was also the 17th pick in 2001 when the Raptors picked Michael Bradley, who was a bad pick at the time, and remains so till today. There was Roy Hibbert at 17 as well, who the Raptors traded alongside T.J Ford to the Pacers for Jermaine O’Neal, eventually paving the way for “those 13 games” by Andrea Bargnani. Finally, there’s Bruno Caboclo who was picked at 20 last year.
There’s something to be said for having the 20th pick as long as you acknowledge that there’s a higher chance for this to turn out to be nothing than something. So what can the Raptors do with this pick? Well, I see five main options and remember, if the Nuggets and Knicks have poor seasons next year, the Raptors will get a lottery pick out of it, so they could look to flip this one and bank on the one likely coming next year.
1. Find a role player
The best hope is that this pick might fetch you an established role player, and here I’m referencing guys like Mario Chalmers, Danilo Gallinari, or Jason Thompson. Even to get these guys, the 20th pick alone might not suffice and you’d have to throw in another player, unless you’re willing to eat a contract like, say, Trevor Ariza, who’s coming off a poor shooting year in Houston.
Generally, you’re going to has-beens using this approach because other teams would’ve already given these guys a shot and dismissed them, so you have to take your chances that their previous shortcomings were due to lack of fit than talent. The Lance Stephenson to Clippers deal is a good example of this. That’s fine, though, since a lot of times players have to go through a couple teams to find where they’re most suited to play. The Lou Williams acquisition might be a good example as that’s where a player came to a situation where they were the coach’s wet dream, and “over-produced” compared to previous seasons.
This is probably the most plausible scenario of what should happen with this pick, as Ujiri tries to strike the balance of youth and veterans. Certainly, someone like Ariza would be invaluable from a defensive standpoint and give Dwane Casey a legitimate 3-and-D guy.
2. Draft a commodity, knowing they’ll never be great
The Raptors can pick a high-effort, NBA-readyish player who can contribute now. This generally means either drafting three-point shooting or rebounding/hustle. Here you’re looking for someone with college experience (so Kevin Looney’s out) who has a motor, works hard, has zero effort issues, and is willing to bust a gut (so, basically the opposite of Terrence Ross). Someone like Montrezl Harrel (projected 24th), who despite being undersized, could be a contributor at PF. He’s played three years in college hoping to inch his draft stock up to the first round, and appears to have done it. He can make defensive plays and isn’t just a brute-force player like Hansbrough, so he might be worth a look, or at least, his type could be considered. The problem here is that he can’t shoot, and if Casey’s bent on smaller lineups, that’s a necessity.
For those of you wanting to get Kenneth Faried for some reason, try following Bobby Portis (projected 17th) from Arkansas. At 6’10”, he has the size and is renowned for having a great motor. The three-year college experience means that he won’t need as much development time as prospects usually do, and could step in now. He’s also an improved finisher at the rim which is a byproduct of college experience. He can’t shoot either, but would provide that mobile defensive presence that Casey wants Valanciunas to turn into, and relies on Hansbrough and Patterson to bring.
Drafting such players is very different than taking a swing like Bruno Caboclo. You pretty much concede that they’re not going to turn into NBA stars, and set your expectations accordingly. This isn’t about finding a diamond in the rough, it’s about finding something that works.
3. Upgrade your best player
Long shot here: try to package it along with whoever it takes to get someone better than DeRozan and Lowry, even if it means shipping one of the two. This is very hard difficult to accomplish because DeRozan and Lowry’s value isn’t high enough, and the 20th pick isn’t enough of a bait to entice someone to give up a ‘Tier 2’ NBA player. Realistically, you’d have to part with Jonas Valanciunas if you have a hope in getting someone like Ty Lawson (not that we’d want him, just saying that if you want to get a Lawson-caliber player, you’d have to part with a Valanciunas-caliber player).
And that’s the problem – the pick isn’t high enough to fetch you any complementary pieces on its own, and creating a package with fringe guys like Terrence Ross, James Johnson, or Greivis Vasquez isn’t going to move the needle. Patrick Patterson might be the guy you’d have to include in a package if you’re hoping to tease a GM in love with stretch-fours, but the Raptors and Casey value Patterson too much to include him, and rightfully so.
4. Trade up
Trading into the lottery is easier said than done. This requires knowing exactly who you want, knowing what teams around you are going to do, and then striking a mutually beneficial deal between other clubs, hoping that your pick projections are accurate and you’re actually going to get the player you want. There’s too much coordination at play here for this to happen. There’s also the issue of assets that comes along, as the Raptors would have to part with someone actually useful to move up 6 spots, and I’m not talking about Vasquezish type players.
5. Swing for the fences…again
It’s hard seeing the Raptors pulling another Bruno Caboclo, though now with a D-League team to dump their prospects in, it’s not an impossibility. With free-agency looking like it’ll be competitive, it just doesn’t make sense to ‘waste’ a pick in the near-term, as it wouldn’t be the best utilization of resources. Perhaps if we were in tank-mode this would’ve been viable, but with the team looking to “build on the fly”, a draft-and-stash doesn’t compute.
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The Raptors Republic 3-on-3 Tournament is on Sunday!
