Fan Duel Toronto Raptors

Early Analysis of DeMarre Carroll Signing

DeMarre Carroll represents a significant free-agent coup for the Raptors, and there's certainly more to come.

This is big. About as big as a splash you could’ve realistically expected the Raptors to make.

It’s early and more moves are on the horizon, but let’s take a moment to break down this signing while we keep an eye on the developing Wes Matthews story.

The Money

A four-year $60/M deal makes him the current highest paid player on the roster, and is about $2-3M per year more than what most analysts had him pegged at. However, this is not a huge overpay because you’re getting a guy who is in the prime of his career, and you have to factor in Canadian taxes to some degree. He turns 29 in July, which means the Raptors will have him till he’s 33 years old. The first three of those years will arguably be his prime, and after that his contract becomes an asset. Comparatively, Tony Allen at 33 is still near the top of his game, and has a similar 3-and-D role on the Grizzlies.

Under the projected cap for the 2016-17 season ($108M), Carroll’s salary will account for 14% of the cap. In comparison, Kyle Lowry today accounts for 18% of the cap, so Carroll’s deal isn’t exactly blowing the Raptors cap apart, and he’s probably in the right future salary pecking order given his talent.

This also sets some precedent for what someone like DeRozan might command, who probably sees himself taking up at least 5% more of the cap than what Carroll takes, ball-parking it at about $20M/season starting in 2016-17, which I’m sure he’d find reasonable.

After renouncing Amir Johnson, assuming they renounce Lou Williams and counting cap-holds for Delon Wright, other roster spots, and assuming they’ll waive Luke Ridnour, the Raptors would have about ~$9M to splurge on free-agents. This makes the LaMarcus Aldridge signing unlikely, unless it’s a sign-and-trade, which is possible and might be a way of Aldridge to say “thank you” to his former employers.  On the other hand, Wes Matthews remains a target.

The Player

Carroll is the perfect 3-and-D guy for any team – he’s long, athletic, has a great compete-level, and plays sound defense, while hitting the open jumper. He is essentially what we wanted Terrence Ross to become. His offensive game has developed considerably in the two years in Atlanta, as he’s able to take defenders off the dribble, often surprising them with his quickness.

He’s a good finisher at the rim, is keen on slashing without the ball, and can defend positions 2-4 in most lineups, and could even play the PF. A blend of versatility, hustle, and talent, Carroll is a player that any team can find a use for, and the Raptors have snatched themselves a player, albeit a role player, who can secure the small forward position in the foreseeable future.

Carroll is a combination forward which Dwane Casey can insert in a variety of lineups, which he loves to do. If small ball is the way forward, a guy like Carroll is the perfect fit. Carroll averaged 12.6 points, 5.3 rebounds in 31 minutes last season, while shooting 39.5% from three and 49% from the floor.  Here’s his shot-chart, which is the right kind of color:

Shotchart_1435775514080

Carroll’s also a good rebounder who likes to crash the glass and doesn’t sit idly by.  For example, 55% of his rebounds were within 6 feet of the rim, so he does like to come down and compete for the boards instead of waiting for them.  He’s moves well without the ball and is a solid cutter to the rim, and it’s one of the reasons why he gets open looks around the basket where he’s shooting a ridiculous 61%.

[Forum Thread: All Things DeMarre Carroll]

The Challenge

It’s critical to note that Carroll only flourished in Atlanta under a very organized offensive system, predicated on ball movement and team play. He shot 36% and 39% from three in the two seasons there, and complemented Atlanta’s other versatile players. His shots weren’t forced but were a product of a system that didn’t rely on isolation basketball and individuals solely creating shots.

In a Toronto offense which last year was low on assists, lower on ball movement, and very isolation heavy, a man of Carroll’s skill-set could find himself lost as he meanders on the three-point line while a defender’s sticking to him as DeRozan over-dribbles on the strong side.  For a guy who had 83% of his made field-goals assisted, he’s coming into an offense that was third-last in assist rate, so you can see what the challenge here is going to be.

The Raptors got a good player, but the responsibility of keeping him productive falls on Dwane Casey, who is entirely unproven in dealing with role players and constructing efficient lineups.

Impact on Roster

Assuming he’s playing the three, this relegates Terrence Ross to the bench effective immediately, which is good for the Raptors and could be the same for Ross. The swingman will now have a firm role coming off the bench rather than being switched in and out of the lineup constantly. He’ll have a more defined set of responsibilities, more offensive freedom playing in the second unit, and it’s up to him to make the most of it, before his contract situation comes into play starting next summer ($3.5M followed by a QO of $4.8M).

James Johnson could also find his minutes even further reduced (if not traded).

Assuming he’s playing the four, he could be a Draymond Green-type player, as he loves hitting the glass, can space the floor and has very quick drives from the top of the key, covering a lot of ground with each step.  If Wes Matthews signs, the Raptors just might be becoming a poor man’s GSW, assuming the coaching staff can keep up (biggest risk right now).

The Raptors wanted to address defense and shooting this summer, and this signing covers both angles.  Combine this with Delon Wright’s signing, and the talk of Wes Matthews, and it appears that the Raptors are aggressively trying to solve these two key problem areas very early in free agency.

Perception

This is a big ‘get’ for the Raptors, and further debunks the myth of Toronto being a wasteland for free-agents. The fact that LaMarcus Aldridge even setup a meeting (granted, only to remind them that they selected Andrea Bargnani over him), and the Carroll signing, sees Toronto being further viewed as a viable destination for free agents. Some GMs are salty, but then again I love tasting tears.