There’s DeMar DeRozan and after that there’s…er…Terrence Ross, no wait, Norman Powell?
The gap in talent between the first and second string spots increased significantly when the Raptors parted ways with Lou Williams, leaving things quite threadbare once you get past DeRozan. The good news is that most NBA teams are structured similarly, the Bulls with Jimmy Butler and Tony Snell, the Warriors with Klay Thompson and Brandon Rush, the Wizards with Bradley Beal and Gary Neal, so this is not really a problem per say. The difference between the examples I’ve given and the Raptors is that Terrence Ross is prone to extended spells of bad form, and hasn’t really shown that he can be relied upon for production. This could force Dwane Casey to extend DeRozan’s minutes which is undesirable.
Defensively, DeRozan has worked his way up to be an average defender on the best of days, and Ross, despite having the physical tools to be a good defensive player, remains appallingly bad. The Raptors may have plugged perimeter holes at point guard and small forward, but the off-guard defense remains a problem. The introduction of DeMarre Carroll has had an impact here, as Ross will now be shifted to his more natural off-guard position, something which Dwane Casey pointed out as being important since it allows Ross and DeRozan to face less physically imposing matchups.
One of DeRozan or Ross always ended up guarding the opposition’s best wing starter, and that will no longer be the case, which is a relief for both as neither fared well in such situations. Additionally for Ross, the bench role means less pressure which Dwane Casey’s hoping translates to a more relaxed player playing with a greater degree of confidence. Ross has a tendency to let his confidence spiral down to the depths of the earth when things aren’t going his way, and last year this problem was compounded by him being a starter, as he eventually lost his place in the lineup.
If summer league is any indication (and it’s usually not), Ross does have a battle for minutes on his hands with Norman Powell, something that he never has had before. Up until now, the starter minutes have been, more or less, guaranteed for him as his competition have been the likes of James Johnson. He’s coming off surgery to remove bone spurs, is already relegated to the bench, and has a very hungry player in Powell looking to make a dent in his minutes. Powell, say what you will about summer league, does not lack in confidence at all, and in basketball that plays a huge part. Ross, on the other hand, is terrified of driving.
The main act at the position is of course, DeMar DeRozan, who will be opting out of his deal next season and looking to get a 100%+ raise on his current salary of $10M. What the Raptors deem his worth remains to be seen, and the situation could end up turning out to be another Chris Bosh. Leaving contract talk aside, DeRozan’s weaknesses remain what they have been the last two years.
His marginal improvements in ball-handling and shooting haven’t changed his style of play, and hasn’t changed how defenses play him. He shot 28% from three last season and still has suspect handles, which is basically all a defense needs to know to figure out how to guard him. Despite getting to the line 10.7 times a game, he’s got a .510 TS%, which is 34th among starting guards in the league. He’s a high usage, low-efficiency player that desperately needs a three-point shot to open up his game, otherwise the script is predictable:
- Can’t shoot from the outside, defense crowds him
- He bulls his way to the rim taking up way too many possessions a game, but getting fouled enough times to get his scoring numbers up
- In the clutch, the refs swallow the whistle and the Raptors pay
- Against good defenders who can crowd him and are quick enough to recover, he’s got no response due to lack of handles and shot
This isn’t a pessimistic take on DeRozan, it’s just facts. One glimmer of hope is that he did shoot 34.8% after the All-Star break last season so you’re hoping that carries over.
For him to have a fighting chance to be meaningful in a playoff series, he has to be able to create his shot with less friction. Whether it be a dead-eye mid-range jumper he shoots while rising, a transition pull-up three, or some Kobe-esque moves in the post, DeRozan’s offensive arsenal needs to expand so that defenses have to think about multiple things when guarding him.
On the plus side, he’s in a contract year looking to be paid and the failed playoff appearances should serve as further motivation to succeed and prove a point. At the end of the day, though, it’s up to Dwane Casey on what the type of role DeRozan will serve. If it’s more 1-4 clearouts or dribble-handoffs that serve as a ruse for isolation play, then DeRozan will likely have a similar season like last year – high PPG, low efficiency, predictable in the playoffs/clutch. If he’s upped his game enough, and Dwane Casey has new ideas on how to run his offense in a more egalitarian way, then we might see a different DeRozan that feeds off his teammates, rather than leeching on possessions.
Much like Kyle Lowry, the key here will be pacing DeRozan. He’s averaged over 36 minutes the last four seasons, and that number should be, at the very least, be reduced by 2-3 minutes. Of course, that depends on how well Ross plays, and whether Casey feels comfortable leaving DeRozan on the bench for 9 minutes a half.
Instead of pulling the usage lever to increase yield, the Raptors have to figure out how to make DeRozan more efficient. Acquisitions like DeMarre Carroll will help as it’ll result in a better spaced court, but that’s only a small part of the journey in bumping DeRozan to the next tier in the NBA.
It should be noted that there’s a possibility that Cory Joseph might end up playing the off-guard position as well, and perhaps even Delon Wright, so Dwane Casey does have a lot of configuration options when structuring his sets.
Quick hits to round-off the discussion:
Biggest Strength: Hard to pin a strength which spans across the position, since DeRozan’s is getting to the FT line and Ross’s is outside shooting. If I had to pick one, I’d say athleticism but I’m not really convinced.
Biggest Weakness: Defense. Powell is a rookie and Ross and DeRozan are not players that inspire great confidence on defense. Dribble penetration against them has been easy in the past and will be again this season.
What I like: Ross coming off the bench gives him a greater chance of success, and I have a feeling Norman Powell just might carry over his summer league play.
What I don’t like: DeRozan’s contract year situation – it has the potential to be a dark cloud hovering of the season, especially if the team starts losing.
Unfortunate prediction: DeRozan won’t improve his three-point shooting or ball-handling to the levels needed for him to be an elite scorer.
Bold prediction: The Raptors will regret not offering Terrence Ross an extension.
X-Factor: Will Ross produce enough off the bench as Casey expects, allowing him to reduce DeRozan’s minutes, giving the latter some perspective from the sidelines.
