James Johnson will start in place of the injured DeMarre Carroll on Sunday against the Miami Heat, the team announced.
Carroll is dealing with plantar fasciitis in his right foot and was ruled out for the game earlier in the day. At the time, it was presumed that Terrence Ross would draw the start, as the Kyle Lowry-DeMar DeRozan-Terrence Ross one-through-three trio is a familiar starting unit from last season. This shouldn’t be viewed as a vote of no-confidence for Ross, as it’s likely a case of head coach Dwane Casey wanting to maintain role consistency, a drum he’s been banging throughout the early part of the season.
Still, Johnson getting the nod is a mild surprise. The mercurial combo-forward appeared to be replaced by Carroll in the offseason and Casey often made it sound as if Johnson would be on the fringes of the rotation this year. He spent most of the preseason preparing to be a depth power forward, as despite the natural fit of the bigger, stronger Johnson as a small-ball four, that look was ineffective last season due to Johnson’s admitted unfamiliarity with the playbook at the position. Now, his role conceivably consists of being the third or fourth power forward and small forward on the depth chart, behind several names at each spot.
While it’s drawn the ire of fans – a Casey-Johnson special – Johnson has remained largely glued to the bench. He earned a DNP-CD in each of the team’s last three games and has seen the court for just 13 minutes through six contests. Save for the second game of the season, all of that run has come in garbage time, and Johnson has responded with a paltry single rebound, one assist, and one turnover without a point to his name.
But again, this is probably about role consistency for the regular bench players. Promoting Johnson alters his role significantly, but he’s a veteran who has had his role jerked around plenty in the past. Tapping him for the start likely causes less total discomfort than changing the role of one or several young players, and Casey maintains homeostasis with his entire rotation save for the starting three-spot this way. It’s odd, on the surface, to promote a player from towel-waver and 3-point-celebrator to starter, but it’s a justifiable move. (Not to mention one that will appease a chunk of the fan base.)
Johnson will be tasked with helping contain the wing duo of Dwyane Wade and Luol Deng, something he’s generally well-suited for when dialed in. He can become spacey when guarding a man off the ball – a major issue if he’s cross-matched on to Wade – but he’s a stout man defender on the perimeter and on the block.
Things get more complicated on the offensive end, where Johnson’s complete lack of shooting could choke the floor inside the arc. DeRozan isn’t much of a floor-spacer himself, and while a Johnson-Patrick Patterson forward duo allows Casey to invert the offense, that won’t be the case as much with Luis Scola at the four. The Raptors will have to hope that the creativity of Scola, shooting of Lowry, aggression of DeRozan, post presence of Jonas Valanciunas, and finishing of Johnson are enough, together, to make up for a lack of true outside threats. Johnson is yet to play alongside Scola, so it’s difficult to judge how the starters will look together, but it’s safe to assume Casey will have a quick hook early on.
Last season, the Raptors were 4.6 points per-100 possessions better with Johnson on the floor than off of it. Tonight’s starters with Patterson in place of Scola is a lineup that was used for 34 minutes last season, outscoring opponents by 4.5 points per-100 possessions. Johnson’s presence also gives Casey the option of deploying his “closing unit” with Cory Joseph in place of Scola, in this case with Johnson as the small-four instead of Carroll.
Sunday stands as an opportunity for Johnson to play his way back into the rotation some. He started 17 games last year, averaging 11.3 points and 4.6 rebounds while shooting 64 percent.
