I bragged on a recent Raptors Weekly podcast about being the only one left to have still kept all of my Terrence Ross stock. I was joking, not about still believing in Ross being a decent player, but about owning actual stock in him. That would be silly, right? Orrrrrrrrr, it could be awesome? Yes, let’s do that! Here’s the game: You buy or sell stock in each of the players on the Raptors based on a starting set price for each player. Then we’ll check back in quarterly, when the market will reflect a fluctuated new price for each player, and decide whether or not to buy or sell again. I’ll post the pricing, how it got there and what my picks are. Making money is the name of the game. You and your friend(s?) can play along at home.
The rules are as follows:
Efficiency matters:
Why? In the words of our fearless new national leader, “Because it’s 2015.” Efficient play can make up for your lack of playing time. Per 100 possessions is counted on more heavily than per game stats. Shooting 40% from 3 but not getting a wealth of opportunities to shoot is better for your stock price than scoring more points from 3 overall, but doing so while shooting 28%. That doesn’t mean traditional counting stats don’t matter for the game; of course they do. But they aren’t valued in a vacuum. A player’s shooting numbers are compared to league averages. If they shoot above, their price rises, below and they drop. The degree to which this effects your price is also tied to shot volume.
Minutes played matter:
You need to play to make a contribution. Not playing or being a big minutes guy that gets pulled in important or end of game situations speaks volumes about how the coaching staff evaluates that players performance and ability to contribute or hurt the team, often on a more nuanced level than most of us watching at home are educated or informed about behind the scenes details to perceive. They may also know about injury situations, team chemistry or conditioning issues that we as fans don’t know about, no matter how loud we scream James Johnson’s name. A big part of minutes mattering is, Injuries matter. Despite what magic the wizards of Phoenix’s world famous training staff appear to wield or what the thin-skinned World Champs might think, luck and chance play a major role here. Chance can dictate fate in sports, in the real stock market and in the rest of life. That’s just the way it goes. If a player tears an ACL or Achilles or a big man breaks his foot, that hurts his stock price bigger than if he just rolls an ankle or breaks a finger. Your stock is going to plummet, sorry. Have fun telling little Johnny how you blew his college fund thinking you were the Wolf of Wall Street. Injuries play a major role in determining a player’s real life value, that’s why so many NBA players in free agency this last summer scooped up whatever long term money was available instead of investing in themselves, playing a one or two year deal and then cashing in when the cap jumps up each of the next two seasons. They know much an injury, bad play or bad luck could harpoon that future price.
Starting is irrelevant:
Too many NBA players are too concerned about the ego of starting or coming off the bench and it sets team back with chemistry, balancing lineups and matching up with specific opponents. 2 points scored at the start of the second quarter count for the same 2 points that they do at the start of the first. Being a starter or a bench guy doesn’t influence your price. Would you have rather had James Harden when he came off the bench for the 2012 OKC Thunder or any team in the league’s 3rd or 4th starter? Andre Igoudala just won Finals MVP. Let’s be grown ups.
Awards matter:
Winning an Eastern Conference player of the week or player of the month has a big boost to a player’s value for that quarter. The same goes for all-star appearances or end of season awards.
At the end of the first quarter, a player’s value will go up or down based largely on where their numbers are now in relation to where they were last season. If they’ve improved, With each passing quarter, more weight will be given to comparing numbers in the most recent quarter with those of the completed quarters thus far in addition to last season. Play better; your stock value goes up. Go on a prolonged cold shooting steak, get benched, tear a rotator cuff or stop rebounding and your value plummets. Simple.
Initial pricings are based on last season’s statistical baselines, so for the sake of the game’s first quarter price points, assume that the IPO is set without any knowledge of games played after the end of the pre-season. Don’t get your pants all tied in an angry internet knot because Patterson has looked way off or because Joseph is undervalued. The league was largely in on Patterson last year and largely aghast at the contract that Cory Joseph got. Be patient, the market will adjust. Respect the eventual omnipotent righteousness of the market. Trust the process. No? Ok, whatever. Here are the tiers for buying in on the IPO of each player:
Established stocks:
Kyle Lowry $40
DeMar Derozan $35
Rising stocks:
DeMarre Carroll $20
Jonas Valanciunas $18
Patrick Patterson $15
High variance stocks:
Terrence Ross $12
Cory Joseph $10
James Johnson $5
You know what you’re getting:
Luis Scola $10
Bismack Biyombo $5
Penny stocks:
Norman Powell $1
Bruno Caboclo $1
Lucas Nogueira $1
Anthony Bennett $1
Delon Wright $1
To start, you get $1000 to spend. You also have another $500 of starting equity in players that were on last year’s team, and you have to decide whether to keep or sell it coming into the season. So, to start the season, everyone’s ledger looks like this:
$160 Kyle Lowry stock
$140 DeMar DeRozan stock
$90 Jonas Valanciunas stock
$45 Patrick Patterson stock
$40 Terrence Ross stock
$25 James Johnson stock
$1000 cash
Spend it wisely, you can’t buy or sell again until after the 21st game of the season. Don’t bother debating whether or not you would have had that amount of each stock to start off with. You just do. Inheritance, you don’t get a choice. Ok, let’s play!
To start with, I’m hedging my DeMar DeRozan stock and selling off half of it for $70. I think that the league is figuring him out and that the league is going to try and move away from some of the cheaper shooting fouls, the same as they’ve done with the rip-through foul. I’m concerned about the ceiling that DeMar DeRozan without a 3 point shot or a willingness to pass as a pick and roll ball handler has reached. Having said that, I do think that all of the injuries hurt his stats last season, so his first quarter numbers may actually rise a bit.
I’m also selling all $45 of my Patterson stock. Last year’s lineup stats looked ugly whenever he and Valanciunas played together. He was also hesitant to shoot last season at times, and that attitude from a spot-up guy worries me. Patterson is also not mobile enough to cover the true stretch 4s of the league, leaving him in a problematic matchup limbo. My money is out. I’m keeping my Lowry, JJ, JV and TRoss stock, leaving me with $1115 to spend.
$240 – Kyle Lowry. I’m buying skinny Lowry! Count me in with the rest of the people who think that a pro athlete can improve on a great season by actually being in shape.
$300 – DeMarre Carroll. I’m a big Carroll fan, and I think that saying that he is a product of the Hawks system is a good thing. He learned how to put himself in a position to succeed, and he was the best player on that team throughout the Cleveland series. Gimme.
$200 – Cory Joseph. If he was good enough for Coach Pop to trust with considerable minutes when Parker was out or not looking right, then I’m in. Toronto has a clear need at guard too so he’s likely to get a lot more minutes and stats than previous seasons, boosting his price.
$180 – Jonas Valanciunas. I’ve been arguing for a bigger role for him for two years now, and I think he’s going to get it. The skills are there.
$60 – Terrence Ross. That’s right; give me MORE Terrence Ross stock! He doesn’t have to be Michael Jordan, 3 point shooting is reeeeeally important. I’m digging in on Ross Island.
$50 – Luis Scola. I’ll trust a reliable aging veteran to not often impress but still be just a little better than you dismissed him to be.
$50 – Bismack Biyombo. Biyombo isn’t great, but I’m willing to invest a little to see what he can do in a very thin frontcourt.
$25 – James Johnson. I think I’ll probably lose money here because he won’t play and I don’t know why. But if he can crack the lineup, it’s worth the investment.
$10 – Norman Powell. NORMAN POWELL! He’s the only rookie or other penny stock player that I can imagine finding a way to get some minutes and I fell in love in summer league. Impulse buy? Maybe.
So, I’ve got:
$400 Lowry
$300 Carroll
$200 Joseph
$270 Valanciunas
$100 Ross
$70 DeRozan
$50 Johnson
$50 Biyombo
$50 Scola
$10 Powell
Keep track of your numbers, we’ll check back in at the quarter season mark and we’ll see how much money has been made/lost.
