It’s been a tough couple games for the Toronto Raptors and their devoted fan base. Their 5-game Western road trip began in Sacramento with a loss. DeMarcus Cousins got away with traveling at game end, enabling him to score the go ahead basket. This in a game that also saw the Raptors get to the free throw line a single time in the second half for a Quincy Acy technical foul compared to the Sacramento Kings 24 trips. One to twenty-four, that’s quite the disparity.
Last night in the confines of a hostile Oracle arena the Raptors overcame an 18-point deficit only to have their efforts wiped out via two questionable calls and one no call in the final minutes. The result finds the Warriors sitting atop the Western Conference with an unbeaten 12-0 record and the Raptors sporting a 7-5 record for which 3 games at a minimum have effectively been altered, if not determined by a zebra. Oh yeah, and let’s not forget the other team (Knicks) who got the benefit of a travel/ foot out of bounds no call at game end and now sit one game behind the Raptors.
Raptors at Jazz: 9:00 pm on TSN
Suffice to say I’m salty as I prepare the pregame for tonight’s match against the 5-5 Utah Jazz. The second game of a back to back set for Toronto who arrive in Salt Lake to a waiting Jazz squad who’ve been off since Sunday. Moreover Utah has the advantage of the thin mountain air which is sure to play havoc with the Raptors lungs and tired legs.
Last season the emergence of Rudy Gobert offered Utah the opportunity to trade Enes Kanter and not surprisingly coincided with the Jazz sky rocketing up the Associations ladder, specifically on the defensive end of the court. Utah has continued their defensive brilliance this season though it is married with an inability to score. Their offensive production or lack thereof is telling:
This past week the Jazz traveled East, losing 3 of 4 games to the Cavaliers, Magic and Heat, the latter two likely due to not having Gobert in the line-up after he sustained an ankle injury versus Cleveland. The other notable fact is the win versus Atlanta on Sunday marked Utah’s first against a team with a winning record (though Indiana and Denver now boast records over .500, at the time they played Utah they did not). Granted the Jazz have only played two of their 10 games at home.
Last season the Raptors easily handled Utah winning both games, but they haven’t played the reformulated defensive minded Jazz. The key for the Raptors will be to overcome their fatigue and force the pace and scoring.
Walking Wounded:
Raptors:
- Terrence Ross – tendon in thumb – out indefinitely
Jazz:
- Dante Exum – ACL tear in knee – out for season
Grading the Match-ups:
Point Guard: Kyle Lowry vs. Raul Neto
Neto is filling in for the injured Dante Exum with his job being to run the offense and not turn the ball over in his 17 minutes per game. He won’t bring much scoring to the court but he’ll pressure the ball and try to snag steals until his reserve guards take over. If Lowry can get off early specifically behind the arc where he’s connecting on over 40% of his attempts the Raptors could build an early lead.
Edge: Lowry
Shooting Guard: DeMar DeRozan vs Rodney Hood
Quinn Snyder seems to really like Hood given his move to the starting line-up and the head coach has been utilizing him in a 3-wing line-up to close out games. Though he’s improved defensively he’ll have his hands full guarding DeRozan who’ll make him work. Then again, DeRozan has historically had issues playing against opponents with length, so with Hood measuring 6’8″ he’ll need to use all his versatility and not back away from attacking the paint.
DeRozan has vacillated between initiating ball movement garnering multiple assists with his tendency to return to iso-ball. When he opts for the latter it results in teams collapsing on him, asphyxiating the Raptors offense and makes the Raptors easier to defend.
Facing a defensive squad if DeRozan can continue to be the catalyst for passing the ball it could be the x factor in the game.
Edge: DeRozan- His sheer volume of shots wins out over his shooting averages, though the shot chart highlights the paint is his money shot.
Small Forward: DeMarre Carroll vs Gordon Hayward
For the first time since his return to the line-up from the plantar fasciitis injury Carroll looked 100% in the Warriors game. Six steals, 50% from the arc and 17 points punctuated that fact. How he’ll deal with a back to back is the next test. Additionally he’ll be tasked with guarding Jazz sharp shooter Hayward who boasts similar stats to that of Carroll though his shooting efficiency has been off so far: 39.4% from the field and 27% from three. It’s likely Hayward will improve when the Jazz get their home stand coming soon, but for now Hayward is a negative in both the offensive and defensive box scores and barely registers at +0.1 for his value over replacement player which is a significant drop off from his career high last season of +3.6.
Edge: EVEN – let’s hope Hayward doesn’t choose this game to get rolling and that Carroll’s apparent return to health continues even in the back to back
Power Forward: Luis Scola vs. Derrick Favors
Favors was my preseason favorite for Most Improved. Through 10 games he’s leading the Jazz in scoring with 15.8 points per game and grabs 9.1 rebounds. The one category jumping off the stats page is his 2.2 steals an increase of 1.4 per game over last season. Capable on both ends of the court he’ll offer a challenge for the Raptors regardless of who is guarding him.
The wily vet Scola continues to utilize his craftiness in games with his rebounding being a welcome addition. But, facing the likes of Favors he might find himself being subbed out early especially if Patterson can hit a few early 3 point shots. Either way the Raptors power forward will need to keep Favors busy on his defensive end or pay the price when Favors capitalizes on offense.
Edge: Favors
Center: Jonas Valanciunas versus Rudy Gobert
Simply put the Utah Jazz became a different team the minute Gobert became the starting center and shipped the defensive sieve Enes Kanter to Oklahoma City. Gobert’s rim protection, rebounding and captaining of the Jazz defense gave them their identity and they haven’t looked back since. His free throw shooting lacks something to be desired (58%), but all his other stats have increased.
Valanciunas is averaging close to a double-double and has shown growth defensively with the revamped scheme, but he still has issues guarding athletic centers. The Raptors should test Gobert and try to draw him into early foul trouble by getting JV extra touches inside. He didn’t look good facing Ezeli or Bogut, so hopefully he’ll improve his effort versus Gobert.
Edge: Gobert
Reserves:
Raptors: Cory Joseph, Patrick Patterson, Bismack Biyombo, James Johnson, Norman Powell, Anthony Bennett
Jazz: Trey Burke, Alec Burks, Trevor Booker, Jeff Withey, Joe Ingles
With the Raptors having pushed the Golden State Warriors to the edge they’ll likely be suffering from fatigue both physically and mentally. Given that fact we’ll see whether Dwane Casey decides to go deeper into his bench in an effort to offset that weariness.
Through 12 games Cory Joseph is posting numbers worthy of Most Improved Player or Sixth Man consideration. As per HoopsStats Joseph has won 5 of his match-ups and lost 2 (Westbrook, Ellis) when both players have logged 25 minutes.
As poorly as the Raptors bench appears to have played they actually hold a healthy advantage over Utah’s bench from hoopsstats.com:
- 35.9 points versus 23.7 points per game
- 8.1 assists to 4.5
- Efficiency of 40.5 to Jazz 25.3
- Cory Joseph holds a distinct advantage over Trey Burke and if he plays to his ability could do real damage. Of note: for point guards logging over 20 minutes per game Joseph leads all with a gaudy 57.7% field goal percentage
Edge: Raptors
Watch for the three wing line-up that Quinn Snyder has been utilizing increasingly in clutch minute situations. In the win over Atlanta, Snyder used it for more than half of the fourth quarter opting for no point guard. In essence it makes the Jazz super long versus their opponents, so if the game is close it could come down to Utah’s 3 wing players versus Toronto’s 3 guards in a tall ball versus small ball situation.
The one aspect of the schedule that does work in the Raptors favor is historically the first game back from an extended road trip teams typically don’t come out with the same energy (likely due to home teams subconsciously relaxing). Let’s hope that’s the case tonight and the Raptors can jump on the Jazz early.
Ultimately the game will come down to two factors:
- Raptors back court versus the Jazz front court in terms of which takes greater advantage of their assets and which bench can be an x factor.
- Raptors strength on offense versus the Jazz prowess on defense.
The Pick: The odds makers have the Jazz favored by 4.5 points and an extremely low over/under of 189 points (which in fairness should be expected given the defensive ranks of both squads and the fact both are in the top 10 of opponent points per game.
Factors to consider are the hang over of getting shafted yet again by the zebras and how that will effect the Raptors mind set, the altitude of Salt Lake City and Utah being rested since Sunday. On the other hand other than the win over Atlanta (who were without Jeff Teague) the Jazz haven’t beat a plus .500 squad.
Being the eternal optimist I’m thinking the zebra’s may actually need to send a few early calls the Raptors way to offset the damage they’ve done to this point early in the season (though I’d prefer the NBA just let teams play and stopped this WWE nonsense we’ve been exposed to so frequently already).
Raptors by 3
Note: all shot charts courtesy of NBAsavant.com
