The Raptors are set to take on the Utah Jazz at 9 p.m. on TSN.
The script is flipped from a night ago against Golden State. Instead of worrying about how to stop the league’s top scorer and the NBA’s No. 1 offense, Tuesday will see the Raptors try to solve the league’s best defender and No. 6 defense. The defensive ranking may undersell the Jazz at that end of the floor, as they were the class of the league after trading Enes Kanter last season, too, thanks in large part to the emergence of Rudy Gobert, an early Defensive Player of the Year candidate.
How good is Gobert on defense? As ESPN’s Tom Haberstroh described it Tuesday, “A layup defended by Gobert, with his 7′ 9″ wingspan, has the same conversion rate as if it were a shot taken 28 feet away.”
Layups taken near Rudy Gobert have same conversion rate as an avg jumper taken 28 ft away. https://t.co/7lHx9gDMlc pic.twitter.com/qUZyXrFWJc
— Tom Haberstroh (@tomhaberstroh) November 18, 2015
All of those mid-range heaves the Raptors take too often and everyone loathes? Expect more of those Tuesday, as the restricted area is essentially a no-fly zone with Gobert on the floor. Just look at this shot chart when Gobert is the primary defender on a shot, courtesy NBASavant.com:
It’s not bad news just for slashers. Opponents are 4-of-13 from the floor posting Gobert up, so Jonas Valanciunas is in tough, too. And while Gobert has fouled frequently on post-ups, he’s only averaging about three fouls per-36 minutes, so sending him to the bench early is a worthwhile but probably fruitless goal.
As a result of Gobert’s incredible efforts, the Jazz are 13.1 points per-100 possessions better with him on the floor. What’s more, a good chunk of that effect comes on offense, a perceived Gobert weakness, and the Jazz as a team shoot far better with Gobert on the court. So, what’s there to do about him? Hope you get hot from outside. Opponents shoot 39 percent from long-range with Gobert on the court, albeit in fewer attempts, as the Jazz can close out more aggressively knowing he’s behind them. And…
Some good news
Outside of Gobert, the Jazz are by far the league’s most foul-prone team. Their guards will foul and their wings will foul. That plays into the Raptors’ general offensive strategy, as Toronto ranks second in team free-throw rate. If things go well for the Raptors at that end, expect to see a lot of Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan at the charity stripe.
Injuries
There’s not much to report on from the injury front. Terrence Ross and Dante Exum remain sidelined for their respective squads, Bruno Caboclo and Lucas Nogueira are in the D-League, and otherwise both sides are tip-top. Rodney Hood was dealing with foot soreness last week but was able to play 20 minutes Sunday.
The line
The Raptors opened as 4.5-point underdogs, a reasonable margin given how fatigued they may be following Tuesday’s loss and the subsequent travel into another time zone. The market has faith in Toronto, pushing the line to Raptors +3.5 as of this writing. The over-under is at 187, a nod to the defense of the Jazz, the potential lethargy of the Raptors, and what should be a game played at a Chuck Hayes-like pace.
As a reminder, teams on the second night of a road-road back-to-back historically win a little under a third of their games. It stands to reason that teams that just went toe-to-toe with the champs for 48 minutes may do even worse.
Moment of silence for France
Not only will Jazz-Raptors be preceded by the United States and Canadian national anthems, the French national anthem will also be played, followed by a moment of silence to honor the victims of the recent tragedies in Paris. (Dap to Eric Smith for this note.) Gobert is French, one of six international players the Jazz employ.
