The Toronto Raptors, they of the fewest home games in the NBA so far this season, are on the road once more Wednesday. If they can get through one more road game relatively unscathed, a mostly friendly six-game homestand awaits.
And if the Raptors are thinking that way, they’re liable to get run off the Fortress Philips floor on Wednesday. The Atlanta Hawks are no joke despite the Raptors having plucked their starting small forward in free agency, and the return of DeMarre Carroll has perhaps detracted from the excitement for what should be a very good game. It’s the 11-7 Raptors against the 12-8 Hawks, a game that figures to have the Raptors pegged as one-possession underdogs.
The game tips off at 8 p.m. on TSN.
Outsider’s Edge
To help set the stage, we reached out to Bo Churney of HawksHoop.
Blake Murphy: The big story, as much as everyone will try to downplay it, is the return of Carroll to Atlanta. The Hawks are mostly fine big-picture, but Kyle Korver’s faced greater attention without Carroll acting as a secondary outside threat, and the team’s defense has been middling. How much do the Hawks miss Junkyard Dog 2.0, and where do they miss him most?
Bo Churney: The biggest thing the Hawks miss from Carroll is his consistency on both ends. He never lit up the box score or played real “lockdown” defense, but he was always good on both ends and he was consistent with what he brought. Without him, the Hawks have been relying on Thabo Sefolosha and Kent Bazemore, and both of those guys have been good. The only problem is that both players have missed time due to rest/injury, and the depth behind them has not been consistent at all. DeMarre/Thabo/Bazemore last year was definitely a better rotation than Thabo/Bazemore/???.
Blake Murphy: The Hawks are bigger than a season ago but are below-average on the glass at both ends of the floor. Offensive rebounding, I could understand, given head coach Mike Budenholzer’s four- and sometimes five-out approach, but the totality of the struggle surprises me. Is it something you’re concerned about moving forward?
Bo Churney: The Hawks were bad at rebounding last year, too, so I wouldn’t be too concerned as of now. However, if they are having the same problems when Splitter returns from injury and as the season matures, then that is the time I would start to get worried. This team was demolished by the Cavaliers last year in the Conference Finals and rebounding was a big part of that domination. Coach Budenholzer has stressed the importance of defensive rebounding in the past few years, but at some point this team is actually going to have to show that on the floor.
Blake Murphy: The Raptors are best going small-ish with Carroll at the four, Cory Joseph in the backcourt, and a single natural big. If the Raptors throw that look out, would you expect Budenholzer to match with some smaller lineups (Paul Millsap at the five, perhaps?), or use that as an opportunity to get big and physical with Toronto?
Bo Churney: For a normal team, the best way to combat that look would probably to be to try and match up by going smaller. For the Hawks, though, they already have two extremely mobile bigs with Millsap and Horford at the four and five. I would expect the Hawks to stick with their natural lineup in this case, which gives them a chance to actually be a big AND quick team in comparison. Millsap has been great this year, and while Carroll is a good defender, I am not sure if he is big enough to go toe-to-toe with Millsap.
The Junkyard Dog (2.0) finds his way home
Drafted 27th overall in 2009 by the Memphis Grizzlies, Carroll found little luck early in his career. Not that he was all that lucky before the draft – he was diagnosed with liver disease a few weeks prior and was shot in the ankle at a nightclub two years prior. He played little as a rookie, even less as a sophomore, and was dealt to the Houston Rockets, who waived him shortly thereafter. The following year, he turned a camp invite into a short stint with the Denver Nuggets – we see you, Masai Ujiri – and then an audition with the Utah Jazz. The Jazz kept him around for one more year, providing him the requisite and regular playing time to find his footing in the league.
And then the Hawks came calling in free agency, making a reasonable bet on Carroll with a two-year, $5-million contract, his first guaranteed money since his rookie contract (so far as I can tell). He immediately broke out and proved the contract a major bargaining, emerging as a two-way contributor, a fixture of the starting lineup, and a major player in the Hawks’ run to the Eastern Conference finals last season.
The Raptors came calling early in free agency, and Carroll inked a four-year, $58-million agreement to change locales once more, this time with a great deal of security.
Carroll’s return is being downplayed for the most part, as the Hawks have been surviving without him and he’s been doing just fine, his numbers mostly unchanged, with the Raptors. Still, human nature suggests Wednesday will mean a little more to Carroll, whether anyone wants to admit it or not. Here’s Carroll on the return, courtesy of TSN’s Josh Lewenberg:
It’s one of those things that’s going to drag out. It’s going to be going on all day. So just get it over with, man, get it behind me. I’m happy where I’m at, I’m happy to be here. This is my team now, the Toronto Raptors.
It’s just another game, Carroll insisted – the ultimate in sports cliches for those about to face their old club and, in that sense, he’s right. Players return to their former stomping grounds all the time. It’s rarely a big deal. So, why is this any different?
…
I think Atlanta gave me a great opportunity to be where I’m at now. They gave me the opportunity to expand on my game and show everybody how I play. So it’s a great feeling going back there.
Others were more simplistic:
Great answer from Patrick Patterson about what DeMarre Carroll got out of his time in Atlanta: “His contract. Plain and simple.”
— Ryan Wolstat (@WolstatSun) December 1, 2015
Me: DeMarre Carroll comes back tomorrow. I wonder what your thoughts are about facing former teammate? Jeff Teague:”I don’t really care.” — Chris Vivlamore (@CVivlamoreAJC) December 1, 2015
Injuries
Raptors: Jonas Valanciunas (finger) is out.
Hawks: Tiago Spliiter (hip) is doubtful.
Breakdown
The game represents an interesting clash of styles. Despite being relatively even in most overall quality metrics, the Raptors and Hawks go about things in very different ways.
The Raptors are best small, the Hawks are often big because their bigs can stretch the floor, anyway. The two sides pass about the same number of times (the Hawks slightly more), but the Hawks create 49.3 “potential assists” per game while the Raptors create 37.3, fewer than only the Lakers; both offenses are effective and include an above-average amount of passing, but the purpose of those passes couldn’t be more different. The Raptors drive an additional five times per game, passing at the same rate off of drives as the Hawks but also leading the league in points off of drives (the Hawks aren’t too far behind at seventh). Neither team employs a ton of pull-ups relative to the league average, but the Hawks are ardently against that shot, ranking 30th. Instead, their second only to the Warriors in catch-and-shoot points, while the Raptors are middle-of-the-pack. The Raptors don’t throw it into the post a ton, while the Hawks throw it in more but pass out of the post more than any other team.
You get the point – equally effective offenses, but ones that come by their points in different ways.
PG: Jeff Teague and Kyle Lowry represent an interesting matchup at the point, one Lowry should be able to gain the edge in given how well he’s playing right now. Teague is very good, but Lowry’s at peak KLOE right now, and I’ll take Cory Joseph’s steady two-way play in support over Dennis Schroder’s fun but sometimes careless offense off the bench.
Wings: Just a terrific TV show.
Wings: Carroll will get the unenviable task of chasing Kyle Korver around an endless array of screens and pin-downs and step-ups and any swipe-sides and I may have made that last one up. In any case, covering Korver is an exercise in mental endurance, and he’s a smart enough defender within the team context to not give it all back at the other end. DeMar DeRozan gets an easier check in Thabo Sefolosha, but Sefolosha is a terrific wing defender, one who will gladly coax DeRozan into Kobe-esque fadeways and mid-range jumpers. Off the bench, Kent Bazemore is playing worlds better than his counterpart, Terrence Ross. You might even call Ross “Bazeless” for the evening.
Bigs: The idea of Luis Scola chasing Paul Millsap around is somewhat scary, and Al Horford is going to drag Bismack Biyombo away from the rim often enough to put an additional tax on the perimeter defenders. I’m not sure the Raptors have a frontcourt duo that can match-up with these two – Patrick Patterson or James Johnson may be able to do a decent job on Millsap and Regional Manager Mike Scott, but it’s probably going to be tough sledding to play to a draw at the four and five. Despite the size disadvantage, I’d advocate (as I often do) going small pretty often Wednesday – the Hawks rebound poorly enough that the Raptors may not get killed on the glass, Carroll can handle at least a few minutes on Millsap, and keeping a center out with the closing four prevents Horford from doing too much damage as an initiator from the block. There are no perfect answers, but this is one way to try to make Atlanta uncomfortable, at least, and they may respond with Schroder in place of Sefolosha, making things easier on DeRozan.
The Line
The Raptors are three-point underdogs with a 198 over-under. Both teams play at a pace slightly below league average, each is a solid defense with a strong offense, and both should be well-rested, save for the absence of a key center. That sounds even to me, and the home team generally gets a 2.5-to-3.5-point edge. Tough to argue with the line, but I’ll be optimistic.
Raptors 101, Hawks 97
