With Jonas Valanciunas and Lucas Nogueira both injured, Toronto Raptors head coach Dwane Casey has had to rely on some fun, center-less lineups of late. It’s meant a heavier load on Bismack Biyombo, too, but it’s also been occasion for Luis Scola to masquerade as a center, as he’s the bulkiest of the team’s non-pivot options and their best bet to create for himself out of the post in a non-mismatch.
Biyombo and Scola can only play so much – the bulk of Scola’s minutes still come at power forward with the starting unit – and so Casey has had to get creative. That, or he reads Raptors Republic, because he’s been trying out the frontcourt pairing of James Johnson and Patrick Patterson.
That frontcourt pairing has had some success, albeit in a small sample. In 51 minutes with Johnson acting as the de facto center and Patterson the power forward, the Raptors have outscored opponents by an estimated 21.5 points per-100 possessions (using data from NBA.com). It’s allowed the Raptors to keep an additional shooter on the floor – they attempt 51 percent more threes on a per-minute basis with these lineups, not surprising for a small group – without losing too much on the defensive end.
At a solid 6-foot-9 and 250 pounds, Johnson can bang with a fair number of bigs. Patterson, meanwhile, is a savvy defender within the confines of the system, and their similarity in size – Patterson is 6-foot-9 and 235 pounds – allows them to switch easily or cross-match in transition. When DeMarre Carroll shares the floor at the three, the Raptors can freely switch across three positions unless the opponent has a traditional hulk at the five (and then they probably wouldn’t be using the lineup, anyway).
The early success of the Johnson-Patterson pairing shouldn’t be all that surprising. It’s small for a frontcourt, but the pairing itself has been successful for well over a season now. Last year, the Raptors outscored opponents by 5.9 points per-100 possessions in 793 minutes with Johnson and Patterson on the floor together, almost exclusively as the small and power forward, respectively, better than the team’s overall mark. This year, all Johnson-Patterson lineups have outscored opponents by 14.7 points per-100 possessions in 159 minutes.
While they may not seem an ideal pair at first blush, the defensive versatility is valuable. Johnson is a quality man-to-man defender, capable of guarding three, maybe four positions, and he’s a valuable piece on defense no matter the lineup. But he can also be spacey off the ball, and Patterson is a smart, if unspectacular defending, timing his rotations well and recognizing the need for help. Playing them together allows Johnson to take the higher-usage forward (or big), while Patterson acts in support. Either can chase a rangier opponent, and Johnson’s ability to rebound from the wing helps make up for some of Patterson’s deficiency on the glass.
But the real complementing comes on the offensive end. The biggest thing that prevents Johnson from getting more run is his inability to stretch the floor. He’s 2-of-6 from outside on the year, 25.9 percent for his career, and 24.3 percent over the last three seasons, and opponents pay him little attention outside. For as much as Johnson fans like to act like that doesn’t matter, it decidedly does – we know how important spacing is to an offense, and with Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan ranking as two of the top-25 isolation players on a point per-possession basis this year, maintaining floor balance to prevent teams from loading up the paint against their drives is paramount.
Even with Patterson struggling with his shot right now, he helps in this regard alongside Johnson. Casey will often invert the offense when the two play together, with Johnson operating inside the arc as a cutter and post-passing threat while Patterson stays outside the arc, where teams pay him far more attention than Johnson. Patterson’s only hitting 32.6 percent of his threes on the year, but he’s a 36.4-percent career 3-point shooter and is at 36.2 percent over the last three seasons.
Spacing isn’t about knocking down shots so much as it is forcing defenses to prevent against them. Because Patterson fires from long-range often and has a track record of effectiveness, teams are still guarding him as if he’s a threat. Since Johnson doesn’t shoot from outside – and can’t – teams help off of him aggressively, even on the strong side.
Here’s a look at their respective shot distirbutions, courtesy of my dude and soon-to-be director of baseball research and development for MLB Advanced Media, Daren Willman of Basketball Savant.
Here’s an example of what inverting the lineup looks like in practice from Wednesday’s game against the Spurs. Here, the Raptors run an iso-post for Johnson, who opts to cut middle and has Patterson, the nominal small forward, open for the kickout.
It’s getting more and more difficult to play players at any position who aren’t shooting threats, which is why Johnson’s minutes are limited. Playing him alongside DeRozan on the wings or alongside Biyombo in the frontcourt is more or less impossible. Pairing him with Patterson in reserve-heavy units or as a frontcourt is a more palatable way to get Johnson on the floor without cannibalizing the offense.
The fact that Johnson and Patterson play together primarily against bench-heavy units makes it difficult to suggest they should be playing a great deal together, mind you. According to estimates from Nylon Calculus, Johnson has played 52.3 percent of his minutes against units considered “bench” groups, while Patterson’s at 62.6 percent. We know that each additional opponent reserve makes things a little easier, so the pairing is playing some protected minutes.
It’s tough to say if the defense or the offensive gains would hold up against stiffer competition in starter-heavy units, but that’s not really the point here. The Raptors have a capable bench duo that appear ready to help stem the tide while the team is thin in the frontcourt. And yes, this should be a primary talking point for the “under-utilized” crowd, in place of yelling about intangibles or a personal vendetta of Casey. Spacing is important, and sheltering Johnson with a stretchy four is important as a result.
