It’s Boxing Day! What does that mean? Well, it means a lot of things to a lot of different people, I’d imagine. For the very literal, it means a day to package things. For the pugilistic, it’s a day of fisticuffs, like a more gentlemanly airing of grievances. For insane people who can handle crowds, it’s a major shopping day.
If you’re reading this, I’d imagine for you, it’s similar to what it is for me: A day spent feeling enormous and over-indulgent but so much so that your “back at it” workout made you smell of stuffing and beer sweats, one that sees you avoid the masses at all costs and instead shut in reading the books you received for Christmas until basketball mercifully saves you from your head-nodding in-and-out naps in the chair by the window with all that warm, comforting, natural light.
Luckily for us, the Toronto Raptors are back in action and we don’t even have to wait until the customary 7 p.m. start. The Raptors instead tip off against the Milwaukee Bucks at 5 p.m.* (*Assuming there isn’t some sort of World Junior Hockey Championship emergency that requires all five TSN stations to be airing the same panel discussion.** [**I actually like the WJHC a great deal and it’s a family tradition to watch the opener but if they preempt this Raptors game for a teenage hockey meat market, so help me.*** {***No, I’m not even a little resentful I never made it to that level, I wasn’t particularly close.****
Anyway, this one could be weird and is a little tough to figure out. The Raptors have a bunch of players with statuses up in the air, so let’s start there. This is all covered in detail here, but:
DeMarre Carroll – report is he’ll be upgraded to probable Saturday.
Jonas Valanciunas – was believed to be ahead of Carroll, so probably ditto.
Patrick Patterson – had the flu Tuesday, no update suggests he’s alright four days later.
James Johnson – sprained his ankle Tuesday but believes he’s Wolverine.
Bruno Caboclo – not yet re-assigned to the D-League.
Norman Powell – not yet re-assigned to the D-League.
Kyle Lowry – missed practice Friday due to a travel issue, was sent to his room with no dessert.
So as things stand, the Raptors roster for Saturday could look like this:
PG: Lowry, Cory Joseph, Delon Wright
SG: DeMar DeRozan, T.J. Ross, Powell
SF: Carroll, Johnson, Caboclo
PF: Luis Scola, Patterson, Anthony Bennett
C: Valanaciunas, Bismack Biyombo, Lucas Nogueira
Or could look as thin as this (the assumption is they wouldn’t assign someone with Caboclo if others were unavailable):
PG: Lowry, Wright
SG: Ross, Powell
SF: DeRozan
PF: Scola, Patterson, Bennett
C: Biyombo, Nogueira
The Bucks, meanwhile, will definitely be without Greivis Vasquez and will probably be without Jerryd Bayless and should probably be without Chris Copeland (heyo!). That would render their rotation something like this, though positions matter very little to head coach Jason Kidd:
PG: Michael Carter-Williams, Tyler Ennis
SG: Khris Middleton, O.J. Mayo, Rashad Vaughn
SF: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Damien Inglis
PF: Jabari Parker, Johnny O’Bryant, Copeland
C: Greg Monroe, John Henson, Miles Plumlee
All this uncertainty certainly makes a game preview difficult, doesn’t it?
As a point of reference, the Raptors are three-point favorites getting 59 percent of the action (the over-under is 194.5). Maybe that’s fair considering the Raptors are 18-12, the Bucks 12-18, and the Raptors hold wins of 106-87 and 90-83 over the Bucks this year. At the same time, this Bucks team has shown they can hang with anyone, pushing the Raptors to the brink on Dec. 11 and beating the then-undefeated Golden State Warriors the very next night. They also hold a win over the Cleveland Cavaliers. This is absolutely not a team the Raptors can afford to sleep on, something they may be liable to do coming off of three days off, a whole lot of food, and perhaps some bigness in the britches considering they’re in a relatively good spot with reinforcements on the way.
Lowry, for one, isn’t willing to let the team get fat and happy. Especially not fat. No carbs for anyone ever – if the team’s best player can’t have them, nobody can. Anyway, what I mean is, Lowry’s not happy with where the team is, and that attitude should serve the Raptors well entering the season’s second leg with some chemistry kinks to be worked out.
“I think it should be better,” Lowry said of the team’s record, even given the injury and (grossly overstated) schedule caveats. “We’re not satisfied with our record. I think we should be a lot better.”
Lowry took particular issue with the team’s defense, which ranks 12th in the NBA in points allowed per-100 possessions. It’s worth noting that they’re a point per-100 possessions away from ranking eighth instead, as the rankings are bunched together, and 12th still represents a major improvement from last season. Given the limitations and what could have reasonably been expected to be a slow start with a lot of new faces and a tweaked defensive system, a slightly above-average defense is probably fine at this point in the year. But not to the point guard.
“We are supposed to be a defensive minded team. We’ve been giving up too many points but I think that’s what our calling card will be,” he said Tuesday. “Once JV gets back and DC gets back, I think we’ll have more of a sense of an identity.”
The Bucks represent a good opportunity to get going on that end, as they rank 15th in the NBA in offense. Parker’s a solid piece, Antetokounmpo is tough to guard, and Monroe is one of the better interior passers going, but as a unit they’re borderline woeful scoring the ball. They’re a bottom-10 team in terms of free-throw rate and turnover rate, and they’re 20th in offensive rebounding rate. They survive some with a middle-of-the-pack ranking in effective field-goal percentage, in part because they shoot at the rim more than almost any other team. That’s not a matter of overall Morey-esque strategy, as they don’t shoot corner threes well or often, but that aspect may be a personnel matter they figure out as they continue to build.
In any case, Saturday’s a good opportunity for the Raptors to lock down and get their defense back on track, like they’ve done against Milwaukee twice already. At the other end, things could be a grind opposite all that length, but the Bucks curiously allow a high volume of shots at the rim, so it won’t be impossible for guys like DeRozan and Lowry. The Raptors scored 40 points off of drives with four assists and three turnovers across their two earlier games, not far off their season averages. Milwaukee also sends opponents to the line more than any other team (something the Raptors excel at) and surrender more offensive rebounds than any other team (partially explaining the high volume of at-rim attempts, butt he Raptors have struggled here since Valanciunas went down due to a strategic shift focused on improving transition defense).
Anyway, sorry this one’s a bit rambly…boxing day morning and a ton of enormous question marks against a team they’ve already played twice. Shrug. You can all figure it out – you’re a smart, attractive bunch.
