Fan Duel Toronto Raptors

Game Day: Washington Wizards @ Toronto Raptors, Dec. 30

Since Cory Joseph's buzzer beater in Washington the Wizards and Toronto Raptors have produced an identical 8-7 record, but the reality is these teams couldn't be farther apart. Game Day previews tonight's match.

In their first meeting this season the Toronto Raptors came away from Washington with a win despite playing poorly for the majority of the game.

While the fan base had expected to see a fired up Toronto team given the brutal and swift exit the Wizards served up last post season, it was disappointing when the rested Raptors came out flat.  And yet, the victory over the Wizards provided for some, one of the most surprising and rewarding wins of the season. It wasn’t because the Raptors used their defense to stay in the game or that they battled for an ugly win, rather what resonated was the uncharacteristic way they won.

The victory came courtesy of a last second play by Dwane Casey (something he definitely isn’t  known for) and off the hands of a player no one expected to take the shot. It was almost surreal watching the final seconds tick away expecting to see one thing and then being treated to something completely different. In fact, it felt like a coming of age in many ways for this Raptor squad as DeRozan didn’t force an iso shot that would’ve likely been blocked, Casey providing what every network jumped on as a miraculous time-out play call and the team trusting someone other than their All-Star back court to take the final shot.

In fact when Cory Joseph nailed the game winning shot off an expertly executed pass along the baseline from DeMar DeRozan I couldn’t help having a flashback to hear Chuck Swisky bellow enthusiastically “Onions, baby onions!”

It’s unimaginable Casey has been holding out for 3 full seasons on amazing play calls of this nature, so I’ll assume it’s a combination of his personal growth and him utilizing his assistants to help design “options”. Regardless, it was a very satisfying win for the masses as it showcased a defensive effort and something outside the norm offensively that teams will now have to game plan for.

Since that game both the Raptors and Wizards have produced an identical 8 – 7 record. What makes their records all the more surprising is the reality of how distant the two teams remain in terms of their consistency and capabilities. For example, dissecting the three major category rankings by season to date and isolating December, showcases some interesting patterns:

Wiz vs Raps Consistency chart:

I’ll admit I was familiar with this stat since I prepare a weekly power ranking column and what has consistently kept the Raptors in my upper echelon is precisely that: their consistency. Regardless of who is out injured, whether they are on the road or at home, on a back to back or whether the competition is above or below .500 the Raptors man for man are an extremely consistent team. If anything, the fact they’ve played without 2 starters for the majority of December bodes well for improvements in all areas moving into the remainder of the season.

Conversely the Wizards have jumped around, but predominantly rank in the bottom tier of teams and regardless of when they go on short winning streaks are unable to find a balance on both ends of the floor. The Wizards lack of consistency speaks to the issues in their system, plus the real warning sign should be the fact Washington is getting worse defensively as the season progresses.

The notable similarities beyond their December record is Toronto just came off of a stretch where they were missing two starters and now the Wizards are going through a similar situation. Arguably Washington has been hit harder based on who they are missing, but this also points to the gaps in the Wizards system.

The Raptors have chosen to keep fully a third of their roster youth based (Caboclo, Nogueira, Powell, Wright, Bennett) and build it via their D-League as opposed to adding more experienced roster help to win now. In essence the Raptors have done more with less and yet ironically their record reflects the results of the team with additional veteran leadership on it.

Raptor fans should embrace this advantage that finds Toronto performing in the upper echelon of the Conference while also developing talent. It’s an unusual combination which the majority of their competitors simply don’t have.

As the teams prepare for this evening’s match at the Air Canada Center with tip-off at 7:30 Eastern let’s take a look at how the teams compare:

Walking Wounded:

 

To say the Wizards are limping into Toronto would be an understatement, especially considering the Raptors have a full complement of personnel for just the second game this season.

All  injuries as per CBS Sports Daily Injury Update and rotoworld

Wizards:

Raptors:

  • Barring any last minute reports the Raptors find themselves in rare territory – –  with no injuries

 

Positional Match-up:

 

Point Guard: John Wall vs. Kyle Lowry, with reserves  Ramon Sessions vs. Cory Joseph

Any time these two All-Star worthy point guards meet up it’s guaranteed to be a great night of entertainment with solid effort and usually strong stats to match their performances. It’s likely due to a respect for each other they never mail in their efforts on nights they face each other. Perhaps it’s simply recognition of the best two-way quarterbacks in their Conference. Either way this is the premiere point guard battle in the East with apologies to Derick Rose (inundated with injury) and Kyrie Irving (yet to showcase a defensive prowess or ability to remain healthy).

In fact, many are annoyed Kyrie Irving generated the second most votes for a guard ahead of both these talented players and Wall made his thoughts known:

 

 

On the season their numbers are remarkably similar:

Lowry: 20.9 points, 6.2 assists, 4.9 rebounds, 2.2 steals, 38.8% from three with 2.8 threes makes, 2.9 turnovers and 57.1% true shooting percentage

Wall: 19.6 points, 9.7 assists, 4.1 rebounds, 2.1 steals, 35.2% from three with 1.5 makes, 4.4 turnovers and 52.6% true shooting percentage

 

Review of these stats pinpoints just how much Wall has to do given his career high turnovers (though Lowry’s are also a career high), but more surprising was the Value Over Replacement Player and Win Share stats which both belong convincingly to Lowry (2.8 VORP/5.0 WS vs Wall: 1.4 VORP/2.2 WS).

Normally the edge tilts dramatically when you factor in Joseph, but his offense has been somewhat AWOL of late. Even his typical high plus-minus ranking and ability to maintain a defensive presence was missing versus Chicago (only the second time this season he wasn’t a factor on at least one end of the court).

Joseph seems to be pressing, and it’s hard to decipher if it’s tied to the recent “lung crud” he was ailing from or if he’s trying to do too much. As the team figures out how to marry the reserves with the starters it stands to reason there should be an opportunity for the second unit to provide lock down defense or work to increase tempo, pace and ball movement. More than any aspect of the Raptors strategy the reserves will benefit the most from the home heavy schedule in January (9 home -5 road) and the opportunity to practice it provides.

Edge: Even (Joseph should bounce back, but I’m wondering if he’s nursing an injury which levels the playing field)

 

Shooting Guard: Garrett Temple vs DeMar DeRozan with reserves Jarell Eddie  vs. Terrence Ross

The Bulls game marked the first in ten attempts that DeRozan didn’t register 20 points (falling a single point shy), though I’d argue it was one of his better all round games since he added 8 rebounds and 8 assists to those 19 points. He’ll luck out tonight as Beal is still out with his leg issue which means Temple will have his hands full. If Ross can find a way to return to his consistent double digit scoring this position holds a huge advantage.

Edited to add: I wanted more detail on Jarell Eddie (other than he’d played for San Antonio’s D-League Affiliate) so did a little research. Turns out he patterned his game after Danny Green who also spent time in and out of the big club. Eddie figured he’d be a good 3 and D guy given his height (6’7″) and shooting ability. NBA.com ran an article last March detailing the similarities of the Spurs Green and Eddie.  Suffice to say Eddie won the D-League 3-point shooting competition last season and demonstrated he hasn’t lost the knack in his two outings with the Wizards (hitting 4 of 5 versus the Nets and 2 of 7 from deep versus the Clippers (who by that time were expecting his shot).  One other post from The Wiz of Awes highlights just how excited a fan base can get at the prospect of an unknown candidate who, at least on initial previews has the potential ceiling (upper end, mind you) to turn into Kyle Korver or Danny Green.

Let’s hope Eddie doesn’t have a typical introduction to the Raptors by replicating his Nets performance, or worse exceeding it.  Could his presence offer Terrence Ros the rare opportunity to make him pay as his mirror image? Cross your fingers and hope that answer is yes.

Edge: Raptors – DeMar returns to his 20 plus scoring status

 

Small ForwardKelly Ouebre Jr.  vs DeMarre Carroll with reserves Otto Porter vs. James Johnson

Last time out the rookie saw little playing time, so his likely start showcases the A) combination of his improvement and B) lack of bodies on the severely depleted Wizards bench.

Notably, the first meeting  was one of Carroll’s poorer showings as he was likely in the middle of playing through his foot issues. He’s looked better each time out since his return, but may want to get a little greedy (read: demonstratively call for the ball) on the offensive end as he found himself open repeatedly behind the arc against the Bulls. With the rookie on him the Raptors should look to take advantage of that match-up early and often.

It will be interesting to see if Casey utilizes Johnson in this game and if so to what capacity. JJ has vacillated between being a great ball distributor and driving the paint and then seemed a little lost versus the Bulls. He was part of the issue of the ball stopping in the hockey line-up that didn’t see the floor as an entity in the second half.

For his part, Porter grew exponentially in the playoffs, but hasn’t been able to provide the same production this year on a consistent basis. Still it’s likely his confidence will sky rocket facing the Raptors as they’ll always represent the team he had his coming out party against.

Edge: Raptors – Carroll has a break out performance

 

Power Forward: Jared Dudley vs Luis Scola with reserves Kris Humphries vs. Patrick Patterson

Dudley always manages to play the Raptors well and will likely provide a major portion of the Wizards offense especially behind the arc where Washington love to get up the three ball. He’s shooting from the perimeter at a career best 48.1% clip.

There is always one ex Raptor who sits in waiting to face his former squad and while Humphries hasn’t been performing up to standards, arriving in the 6ix might be exactly what the doctor ordered.

Though Scola has a tendency to get off to great starts (which is awesome to kick start the team especially on the road) he doesn’t tend to carry that offensive  production throughout the game.  For his part, Patterson has shown glimpses of defense or a three point shot here and there, but hasn’t been able to put together a consistent stretch of both. It certainly feels like if Patterson ever got his confidence back this team could contend for that seed that appears to be open behind Cleveland.

Edge: Wizards – it’s still not a safe bet to rely on Patterson and for goodness sake run Dudley off that 3 point line!

 

Center: Marcin Gortat vs Jonas Valanciunas with reserves DeJuan Blair vs Bismack Biyombo

Gortat is a monster whether playing in the paint, running alongside Wall in transition, hitting from the field or providing a how to video with Wall on the fundamentals of pick and roll. No matter who guards him they’ll  have their hands full, but we’ll hope Valanciunas is reinserted into the starting line-up to at least keep the big man honest on the offensive end.

The good news is if the Raptors can find a way to limit his production it bodes well overall since Wall’s options are limited once Gortat leaves the court.

Though Valanciunas is still flicking off some rust he made some interesting and appealing quick moves versus the Bulls. JV still has a tendency to waste time considering his options, but he’s also showcasing the ability to do things teams aren’t expecting, like the blow by baseline moves he had on Pau Gasol… twice!

With Nene out injured it offers Biyombo a potential opportunity to do something rather unusual for him …. score!

Slight Edge:  Raptors (but only because Gortat has no help)

Washington at Toronto stat comparison

 

The Line:

 

At the start of preparing this pregame the odds makers had the Raptors favored by 5.5 points with an over-under of 202.5 points in less than an hour that number jumped a full point to 6.5 with the action now firmly swaying in Toronto’s favor.

Though it hasn’t been announced, I’d expect to see Valanciunas follow a similar pattern to Carroll and return to the starting line-up his second game back which should help quell some of the issues for the reserve unit. Certainly the hockey line-up isn’t the answer this season, at least until both Ross and Patterson are capable of hitting shots from beyond the arc consistently. That said, if they ever both start connecting then Toronto’s bench unit with Joseph quarterbacking, J.J. offering intangibles  and Biyombo guarding the paint could become an exciting complement to the starting core. Certainly the Raptors won’t face the same issues versus Washington that they did against the young athletic Bulls, so the bench shouldn’t be the reason whether the Raptors win or lose this game.

Coming into tonight there remains chemistry and roster issues to address in terms of the team rediscovering their rhythm and getting back into the natural flow they began the season with. Like Toronto the Wizards have a heavy January  home schedule (10 home, 5 road), but unlike Toronto the Wizards are in a dire situation to win given the Bucks are their only opponent in their next 10 games with a record under 17-12.

As I highlighted above the Raptors have been a model of consistency this season rarely being out of the mix in late game situations. Three times they’ve lost on the second game of a back to back set and only in two games (Miami first meeting, Indiana, second meeting) have the Raptors not put themselves in a position to win.

While the team still needs to figure out their timing with the addition of the returning healthy bodies, the arrival of the Wizards feels like the perfect elixir to get the Raptors back on track.