To solidify my spot on the Raptors Republic rotation as the guy who presents unpopular opinions I am now going to mount a spirited defense of the defensive abilities of often-criticized Raptors center Jonas Valanciunas.
At this point it seems almost inevitable that anything written or said about the Raptors defense will include some kind of backhanded praise of Valanciunas, talking about the fact that he isn’t single-handedly torpedoing the teams defense in much the same way you would talk about 7 year old who has finally completed his potty training. If that’s not included then it will probably feature a caveat about the Raptors much-improved defense not being quite as improved when Valanciunas is on the floor. This is a toned down version of the narrative from last year, which held that the Raptors defense would be much better if that bumbling clod in the middle could just figure out what the heck he was supposed to be doing out there.
Here’s the problem with that narrative: it’s not true and hasn’t been for quite a while. We started hearing about how bad his defense was two years ago, when Valanciunas was a persistent negative on the defensive end for an otherwise solid defensive team. In the early part of last season the narrative picked up steam as Valanciunas posted extremely bad on/off splits on the defensive end – through 01/18/15 the Raptors were 8.4 points per 100 possessions worse on the defensive end when he was on the floor. A difference that significant seems pretty damning but it ran in stark contrast to Valanciunas’ strong rim protection numbers – he ranked in the top 20 in all of the rim protection metrics compiled by Nylon Calculus. It didn’t make sense that a big man who was above average at saving points at the rim would have such a negative impact.
As the team approached the all-star break Valanciunas’ defensive splits experienced a sudden turnaround and slowly but surely his on/off splits started to improve to the point where he was almost breaking even by seasons end. From 01/19/15 to the end of the season the Raptors defense allowed a solid 102.5 points per 100 possessions with him on the floor, a mark that was 4.9 points per 100 possessions better than with him on the bench.
It’s obvious that something changed – that kind of turnaround doesn’t just happen for no reason. The key detail is the timing, and what happened with the Raptors lineups around that time. On 01/19/15 Terrence Ross, the consistently terrible defender with whom Valanciunas had played 75% of his minutes at that point in time, was demoted to the bench. From that point on Valanciunas played only 49% of his minutes with Ross and the teams defensive performance while he was on the floor suddenly improved, strongly suggesting that the issue wasn’t with Jonas overall but rather one aspect of his defensive game: his ability quickly react to the breakdown of the teams perimeter defense. Lest we chalk the change in performance up to mere coincidence, the turnaround happened as soon as Ross and Valanciunas started spending less time together on the floor. In the week immediately following Ross’ demotion to the bench the Raptors defense was 9.4 points per 100 possessions better with Valanciunas on the floor while it remained terrible whenever Ross was in the game. Valanciunas would be a positive for the rest of the season and his defensive splits finally matched up with his solid rim protection numbers. This change went largely unnoticed and the narrative remained the same.
This year we see fewer fingers pointed at Valanciunas and the tone of the criticism he does receive is muted but it’s still difficult to find anyone saying anything wholely positive about his defensive play, with most of the positive commentary focusing on individual defensive efforts as though these good games are out of the ordinary. Most of the praise is reserved for backup Bismack Biyombo, the fan favourite energetic big man with hands of stone. It’s easy to see why Biyombo gets more attention for his defensive play – he’s quicker and plays the game with more energy and that is often equated with being better, particularly on the defensive end because it looks like he’s trying harder and making more of an impact. It doesn’t help that Valanciunas’ missteps on defense can be very noticeable – he gives up the kind of blow-bys that really stick out in the mind of a spectator – but players are to be evaluated based on their aggregate effectiveness, not based on the plays that we happen to remember. In this case appearances are deceiving and there isn’t a significant difference in the Raptors overall defensive performance as a team whether it’s Valanciunas or Biyombo manning the middle. Biyombo’s rim protection numbers are better but the team corrals a higher percentage of defensive rebounds and hold opponents to a lower shooting percentage outside the three point arc with Valanciunas. The end result is a defensive rating of 100.8 with Biyombo on the floor and 101.7 with Valanciunas, a difference that is fairly insignificant and indicates that both of the Raptors big men are doing a solid job, with neither one necessarily being better than the other but each one being suited for different opponents or different situations.
Valanciunas is not an elite interior defender but he’s far from a bad one and for the better part of the last calendar year the team has been solid with him on the floor and performed just as well or better with him than they have without him. Like most players he has limitations – mainly that he’s not really capable of making up for terrible perimeter defense from his teammates – but if he’s placed on the floor with solid perimeter defenders he’ll execute the teams defensive scheme, protect the rim without fouling and keep opponents off the defensive glass. It’s time for people to stop pretending the Raptors defense is succeeding in spite of his play and acknowledge him for being a positive contributor to their success at that end of the floor.
