I don’t tend to do ‘response’ articles because I feel like if I ever went down that rabbit hole then I’d spend all my time opining on someone else’s opinion – a level of naval-gazing that even I won’t let myself succumb to.
However, Blake Murphy’s piece this week on possible Raptors trade targets did set my mind a-thinkin’. I’ve obliquely implied that I thought that the Raptors should make moves to augment their roster this season, but truth be told I am almost always of the mind that the Raptors should be making moves because until you are hoisting a trophy you are no position to sit still. That said, the urgency of that belief has been hard to pin down this season, as the Raptors have looked good enough as constructed to compete at-or-above their weight class and with so many unknowns heading into the offseason (chief among them being their ability to win a series in the Playoffs) maybe a trade isn’t exactly a priority.
After all, as Blake’s write-up pointed out, the Raptors salary structure offers little in the way of traditionally tradable assets, especially with two of their most desirable possessions, Jonas Valanciunas and Terrence Ross, possessing poison-pill deals. So, even if the Raptors were inclined to make a move, finding one that works is exceedingly difficult.
Yet, I look at the standings, with the Raptors sitting second in the eastern conference, and I look at how the Bulls, Hawks, Pacers and Heat have done nothing to establish themselves as real threats this season, and my imagination starts to kick in. While Raptors-nation is somewhat obsessed with just getting out of the first round (a reasonable goal considering they’ve done it only once in their history), perhaps that line of thinking is too conservative. Since the east is loaded with teams at-or-around Toronto’s level, there is no reason that the Raptors shouldn’t be thinking bigger, maybe much bigger, given the situation the east finds itself in..
Timing has a lot to do with success in the NBA. Houston happened to peak just when Michael Jordan decided to retire for a life of baseball. Boston happened to have the best trove of assets on hand when Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen became available. Orlando unexpectedly made the NBA Finals in 2009 and Dallas unexpectedly won the whole thing in 2011. None of these things happened by accident; teams planned well, built well and were in a position to strike when opportunities presented themselves. Still, they happened to be holding the best hand at the right moment, and the moment itself was almost as important as the hand for those teams.
This season, the Raptors have performed basically to expectation, but the rest of the east has either over- or under-performed (save Cleveland) and that has created a bit of chaos that creates opportunities like the ones mentioned above. Teams that were supposed to be better than the Raptors aren’t, and teams that were supposed to be worse are actually a lot closer. That the Raptors (for today, anyway) sit at the top of that pile record-wise is something the organization may have to pay a bit more attention to.
I’m not trying to say that the Raptors are in a position to win an NBA title, nor am I suggesting they totally mortgage their future for a shot a winning two rounds in the Playoffs. At least, I don’t think I’m saying those things. We’re at that weird point in the season where people are starting to look who the ‘contenders’ and ‘pretenders’ are in the NBA right now, and you’re starting to hear more and more that people outside of Toronto suggest that the Raptors are perhaps the next-best thing in the east this season. Does that matter in an eastern conference with LeBron James? Probably not, but we were saying the same thing back in 2009.
So with the NBA trade deadline just weeks away, what should the Raptors be looking at? I don’t know. I don’t have the stomach anymore to throw out fake trades because ‘logic-brain’ kicks in and usually it doesn’t make sense for one side or the other. Then, in real life, Grevis Vasquez gets traded for a first round draft pick and I remember that ‘logic-brain’ works differently from the machinations of the NBA. What I’m more concerned with is what the Raptors’ ambitions should be this year, and are they in a position to perhaps exceed them if they’re willing to cash in some assets today that they might not otherwise if they were even just a little worse than they are right now. I don’t think that this team is going to win a title, but I also don’t think that this configuration is EVER going to win a title, so when I project a ceiling out for these Raptors, I wonder if they aren’t in a position to reach for it this season.
Look at it this way: if the Raptors can swing a trade that definitely improves them, even if it isn’t by a ton, and it seems more or less likely to get them out of the first round, so long as they can avoid Cleveland in round two, does the logic not apply – given the makeup of the east this year – that they would have nearly as good a chance in the second round? By that I mean, with the parity in the east being what it is, wouldn’t a feeling of certitude about a first round win almost have to apply to a second round win if you can avoid Cleveland? By extension, if you can feel good about a trade getting you to the conference finals, which is perhaps the highest that this version of the Raptors could ever hope to go, shouldn’t you do it? Especially when you consider what Orlando did in 2009, by being in the right place at the right time? Put yourself in the best position you can and let the chips fall where they may.
Keep in mind, windows close quick in professional sports. While the fan base was tormented over losing in the conference semi-finals to Philadelphia back in 2001, most felt that they were equipped to make another push, especially after they re-signed Alvin Williams, Jerome Williams and Antonio Davis. As we now know, that was as far as the franchise would ever get in that configuration, as injuries and poor management quickly destroyed what once looked so promising.
Maybe it’s my memories of those days that prompted this line of thinking. Maybe it’s looking at the fragility of teams without a super-duper all-time star on the roster (teams like that 2009 Orlando squad) and feeling like if you see a chance to max-out your potential you should go for it.
If you’re of the mind that this club can win a title with this core then obviously you’ll disagree. You’ll want patience to win the day. If you’re of the mind that the Raptors can make a run for Kevin Durant in the summer, then obviously you’ll disagree, wanting the club to avoid taking on any more long term deals that could (further) impede that signing.
That’s not what I see for the future of this core. I see a core like the one of Joe Johnson-era Hawks or, in a best-case scenario, the Sindey Moncreif Bucks. They could hang around for a while, but those all-time guys won’t let them break through.
This year, though, they have a chance to make some noise. I don’t know for sure if they can get out of the first round, but I also think they have a shot to win two – that’s how weird the east is this year. If you as an organization have a shot to make the conference finals, you should be seeing if there are moves out there to help ensure that it happens. That doesn’t mean totally mortgaging the future, but it might mean being a little more impulsive than I’m usually comfortable advocating a team to be. These aren’t the same Raptors of recent vintage. This isn’t a club that is looking five years out. They have a team with players in their primes today. The Raptors have seldom ever been in that situation. They don’t have to ‘Colangelo’ the situation, but they should be aware of the opportunity that lay before them. It’s tempting to say that they should let this trade deadline pass, see where the Playoffs leave them and where their picks fall in the spring, but you can’t forever be looking forward in the NBA. Sometimes you do have to make moves for the present because it’s presenting you with an opportunity.
There is still over a month to go before the trade deadline, and the Raptors could hit a swoon that invalidates this entire line of thinking. However, if they are still floating near the top of the conference by then, I think there is a real logic behind making a push when they have a chance to rather than hoping that another chance comes along sometime in the future.
