Coming into this season, most fans expected the Toronto Raptors to be good, and hopefully better than the previous 2 years – years that had fantastic regular seasons, only to be disappointing in the first round of the playoffs both times. While “better” in past years may have meant more regular season wins and a playoff appearance, this season, only one thing seems to count – playoff performance.
Realistically, at the beginning of the year, most fans expected the Raptors to be a 45-50 win team, and that they would land between 3-6 in the East when all was said and done. And yet, with half of the season in the rearview mirror, the Raptors have had a few minor disappointments, but an overall stellar start with 25 victories in their first 40 games, good enough for second place in the eastern conference. Not only is that impressive in itself, but the Raptors have also done all of this without two major starters (JV and DeMarre) for large parts of the season, and with a road-heavy schedule that has already featured some of the toughest teams in the league. The Raptors have already played 9 back-to-back games in the first half of regular season play.
After returning from a week-long journey to London, England to take on the Orlando Magic this past Thursday, the Raptors return to Toronto to kick-off a 7-game homestand and the relatively easier second half of their schedule.
Through the first 40 games of the season, the Raptors have shown toughness, resiliency, and some of the best backcourt play in franchise history – with Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan both playing at clear all-star levels. You could easily make the argument that these two should start in the backcourt at the all-star game in Toronto in a few weeks.
And now, with a cushy 7-game homestand upcoming (with teams with a combined record of 141-136 as of yesterday), the Raptors will be looking to make hay as the eastern conference standings start to tighten up. The Cleveland Cavaliers have begun to take a commanding lead on the conference seperating themselves by 4 games from a tightly packed group featuring the Raptors, Bulls, Hawks and Heat not far behind. While that second place standing seems decent at the moment for the Raptors, it could easily slip to 4th, 5th or 6th with a few consective losses.
So, while the “one game at a time” philosophy obviously applies, it’s tempting not to wonder where this team could be standing in a few weeks when all-star festivities begin. After the 7-game homestand, the Raptors will head out on a 6-game road trip that will feature 5 road games prior to the all-star break.
During the homestand, the Raptors will take on the Nets, Celtics, Heat, Clippers, Wizards, Knicks and Pistons. With the way the backcourt is playing and the team’s rest this past week, it’s hard not to see the Raptors at least going 4-3, if not 5-2, during their homestand.
The road trip will feature stops in Denver, Phoenix, Portland, Detroit and Minnesota prior to the all-star break, followed by a stop in Chicago afterward. While the trip won’t be easy, it certainly won’t be a massively difficult task on a nightly basis for the Raptors on the road trip as all opponents are certainly beatable. Having said that, I think all Raptor fans would gladly take a 4-2, or even 3-3 record on the trip.
If they can take care of business on the 7-game and 6-game home/road stretches upcoming, it’s likely that the best-case scenario record for the Raptors at the all-star break would be 34-18, and that the worst-case would be 30-22. Either way, the Raptors will be heading to the break with a healthy margin above 500, and hopefully, DeMarre Carroll close to returning. Carroll remains sidelined with no definite timetable for returning after undergoing an arthroscopic knee procedure a couple of weeks ago. While the injury was not to repair any torn ligaments or such, it will certainly require a decent chunk of time off, something that the Raptors (assuming they continue to win and capitalize against some of the lesser opponents), won’t mind at all. They paid top dollar for this guy in the offseason to be the tough defending, three-point shooting player they so desperately need in the playoffs. And if getting that means resting him during the regular season (something that doesn’t seem to be impact the win win-loss total greatly), then so be it.
Similar to the regular season team of 2013-2014, the Raptors seem to have it figured out on both sides of the ball, as they continue to sit within the top-10 in the league in both offensive and defensive efficiency thus far this season. Fuelled by the all-star backcourt on offense, the Raptors also have received tremendous defensive contributions from their bench guys like Cory Joseph and Bismack Biyombo who filled in admirably during Jonas Valanciunas’ 17-game injury absence during the first half of the season.
Based on these factors, and the easier schedule upcoming, the future looks fairly bright for Raptor fans who are enjoying a third-straight winning season and likely a playoff appearance once again. And while the seeding for this team didn’t seem too clear at the beginning of the season, one thing that seems abundantly clear now, is the seed we should be aiming for come playoff time.
Barring any injuries or a collapse in the second half, the Cleveland Cavaliers appear to be the clear number one seed in the east. However, nothing is clear past that, and the second seed in the east is wide open. The Raptors should be looking to avoid facing the Cavaliers in the second round (should they be able to advance in the first), and the second seed would allow them to do that. Not to mention, there will likely be a reasonable dropoff from the 6th seed (at this stage, likely to be Indiana, Miami, or Atlanta) and the 7th seed (potentially Orlando, Detroit, Boston, Washington or New York). As the 2nd seed, the Raptors would face the 7th seed, as opposed to 6th or 5th.
While all of this could easily change in just a few days, the way things are trending in the east, aiming for the second seed seems like a safe bet for the playoffs. The Raptors should be aiming for the Conference finals – while a lot needs to happen between now and then, that should be the goal during every practice and every game. The way things appear now, after 48 and 49 win seasons the past two years, the Raptors appear to be on track to earn 50 wins – something never done in franchise history.
While the outlook looks good overall, some concerns for Dwane Casey and his coaching staff remain if the conference finals is the goal. The defensive intensity needs to remain consistent from the starting lineup and at the point of attack, while the bench needs to continuously provide energy on offense. Terrence Ross, while showing some flashes of brilliance, continues to be an enigma on most nights, while Patrick Patterson has yet to get into any sort of continuing rhythm this season. The Raptors still labour on offense at times as they tend to go through lulls (the Indiana, Charlotte and Chicago road games in December come to mind), especially when the starters are on the bench. Establishing a balanced scoring attack, that isn’t entirely based around Lowry and DeRozan, is something the Raptors need to continue improving upon, especially during the playoffs. The Raptors will also need to get Lowry and DeRozan some decent rest on most nights during the second half of the season, as both continue to average close to 37 minutes a night. I’m sure most fans and Dwane Casey would like to see that number closer to 35 or below for the rest of the season.
Thinking about what the Raptors can achieve this season is tempting, but patience is a virtue. The team will be forced to take it one game at a time, and ensure that a consistent effort on offense and defense is put forth for 48 minutes, every night. The Raptors get back into action at the ACC this Monday, as that 7-game homestand kicks off against the lowly Brooklyn Nets. Tip time is 7:30 pm.
ICYMI: Our Mid-season roundtable from last week.
