Patrick Patterson and January Redemption

Patrick Patterson has been inconsistent so far this season, but there are some positives to draw from.

Patrick Patterson came to the Raptors with little fanfare, with Toronto being his third team in his short career.  After being drafted by the Houston Rockets in the 2010 Draft (First Round, 14th pick), Patterson was traded to Sacramento on in February 2013, only to be traded 10 months later as part of the Rudy Gay trade in December 2013.

What started with the promise of a first round pick, quickly turned into the travels of an NBA journeyman.  Three years, three teams, and twice being included as trade filler…not the promising start one would hope for from a first round pick.

Despite the disappointing start, and the unknown for what direction his career would go, Patterson has seemed to find a role, and a home in Toronto.

He quickly became a key bench contributor as Toronto rebounded as a team after the Rudy Gay trade, and resigned with the Raptors in the summer of 2014.

The assumption by many, including Patterson himself, was that the departure of Amir Johnson this past summer would lead to Patterson’s inclusion as the Raptors starting power forward.  41 games into the season and nothing could be further from the truth at the moment, as Patterson has come off the bench for the entire first half of the season.

In many eyes, he has gone from being a key contributor, to a broken and ineffective player, to the point where many fan trade proposals include his name.  Yes, this is at least in part due to his contract being some of the more tradeable money on the roster, but much of the speculation is from the disappointment many Raptors’ fans have had in Patterson this year.

His stats have basically gone down across the board compared to last season.

Last year saw Patterson with 3.6 assists per 100 possessions, but this number has dropped down to 1.1 this season.  Similarly, he is getting 1.3 less rebounds per 100 possessions this season.

His shooting has been even worse when looking at the season as a whole, which is particularly troubling as his three point shot was instrumental in how he fit the Raptors roster since his arrival.  On a roster that is severely limited in long distance shooting, Patterson was expected to be a key contributor in this capacity from the front court position.

What’s most interesting to me though is that despite his poor shooting, Patterson is shooting at a faster rate than last season.  This season sees him taking 12.9 shot attempts per 100 possessions, an increase from his 12.4 attempts the year before.  Yes, this is a relatively minor difference from last season, but the shots breakdown themselves has changed.  52.9 percent of Patterson’s shots last season came from beyond the three point line, while this season has seen his three point attempts account for 65.6 percent of his shots.

While Patterson has seemingly been more hesitant to shoot this season, the numbers indicate that he is pulling the trigger at a faster rate than last season and taking a higher percentage of three pointers.  All of this despite shooting worse percentages from almost every distance from the basket.

Patrick Patterson, Shooting by Distance

The good news is that as disappointing as Patterson has been on offense, he has been as encouraging on defense.  While opponents last season shot a higher percentage against Patterson from most spots on the floor than their season averages, this season Patterson has kept opponents below their season averages from every distance on the floor.  Overall, Patterson is currently forcing opponents to shoot 3.8 percent worse than their season averages, whereas last season opponents shot 1.6 better than their average when being guarded by Patterson.

He is using his feet well on defense, and forcing his cover into difficult shots.  His defense has earned him the opportunity to play through his offensive challenges this season, and has yielded recent positive results.

Through the first 8 games of January, Patterson has shot 51.8 percent from the floor, and 51.4 percent from long distance, for a true shooting percentage of 68.6 percent.  Granted, this is a small sample size for Patterson (8 games), and he is unlikely to maintain it, but few players are currently shooting the long ball like Patterson has in the month of January.

Since 2016 began, only five players other than Patterson are attempting at least 4 three pointers per game and connecting at a rate of at least 50 percent: Bradley Beal (3 games), Chris Paul (7 games), JJ Redick (7 games), Joe Johnson (10 games), and Victor Oladipo (7 games).

Patterson has had stretches similar to this in the past, and maintaining a three point percentage of at least 50 has never been possible, but the hope is that Patterson can at least sustain 38(ish) percent shooting from three moving forward.

Combining his season’s defense with 40+ percent three point shooting would add an incredible dynamic to the Raptors bench, and may even cause Patterson to finally force his way into the starting lineup afterall.

(*all stats are prior to last night’s game against the Boston Celtics)