The Toronto Raptors kick off a seven-game home-stand on Wednesday when the Utah Jazz visit the Air Canada Centre for a 7:30 tip-off on TSN. Coming off of two days off – four for Kyle Lowry – the Raptors will play every second day between here and March 14, providing an opportunity to gather momentum against some quality opponents and, just as important, stay well-rested.
The 28-31 Jazz will provide a good first test as the Raptors look to bounce back from perhaps their worst performance of the season on Sunday in Detroit.
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Outsider’s Edge
To help set the stage, I reached out to the Utah-based Ben Dowsett of BBall Insiders, and he was kind enough to provide some illumination on where the fringe Western Conference playoff team finds itself right now.
Blake Murphy: Let’s start with some Canadiana. I was a big Trey Lyles fan heading into the draft, and while I had trouble describing exactly why, I was pretty confident he could fit in wherever. After a slow, somewhat discouraging start, Lyles has really started to find his way over the last couple of months. How encouraged are you by his play as a freshman, and how much will he figure in to whatever Utah does moving forward?
Ben Dowsett: Lyles is among the chief bright spots in what’s been a bit of an up and down season in Utah. He did indeed start the year timid and clearly uncomfortable with NBA speed, but the rate at which he’s found his bearings and begun contributing in a positive manner has been a very pleasant surprise.
Trey has picked up offensive nuance in a big hurry, and has already become a guy capable of contributing in multiple areas – whether it’s stretching the floor to the 3-point line (he’s shooting 39% on the year and an even 50% from the corners) or putting the ball on the floor and making plays, he’s quickly showing the outlines of the “playmaking 4” that’s becoming more and more popular in the league. He still has work to do defensively, but with a skill set that allowed him to play the 3 at Kentucky, he has the tools to be a mobile but strong defender who can operate with and against both small and big lineups.
There are no guarantees on ceilings, but if Lyles continues to develop at this rate and ever becomes an above average defender, he’ll throw complications into Utah’s frontcourt situation in a hurry. There have already been periods where Rudy Gobert and Derrick Favors look more free and less cramped while playing with Lyles rather than each other, and he unclogs a ton offensively for a group that’s spatially challenged. Canadians will want to keep a keen eye on Lyles moving forward.
Blake Murphy: The growth of Rodney Hood has been perhaps the most important story of Utah’s season. Has he grown to a point where maybe a Gordon Hayward isn’t a given as a franchise piece moving forward, or to a point where maybe Alec Burks is expendable to help land a point guard upgrade?
Ben Dowsett: Hood has taken great strides, but I don’t get the feel that the organization is ready to go to either of those places just yet. They certainly view Hood as an excellent insurance policy should Hayward choose to be elsewhere once he hits the market, though they remain confident that Gordon loves this team and is fully on board with the process in place.
Moreover, the one-two punch the two could offer is much more tantalizing than just one – most teams don’t have two top notch wing defenders, and are forced to cede a bad matchup to one or the other while they share the court. Better yet, Quin Snyder can and does stagger their minutes to ensure one or the other brings a playmaking presence from the wing for nearly the full 48 minutes every game.
Burks is a slightly larger question mark, but the Jazz won’t give him up for a short-term stopgap – and it’s unclear how necessary that might be once Dante Exum returns next season. We’re still in wait-and-see mode for now.
Blake Murphy: After turning in one of the best defensive performances of the second half last season, Utah’s slipped back to being a middle-of-the-pack defensive team. What’s the key to scoring on this group and working around the presence of Rudy Gobert?
Ben Dowsett: Well, first of all, part of that number has a lot to do with a rash of injuries the Jazz still haven’t fully dug out from, including a month apiece missed by both Gobert and Favors, with some crossover in the middle.
However, there’s no question teams have been more prepared for Utah’s brand of defense – more cognizant of their interior defense, and MUCH more willing to lean on the weaker defenders on the court, most typically the point guard position. Exum’s injury was no small deal here, as he was instantly an above-average defender at the position and his length and size allowed Utah to switch much more frequently.
With worse options there and a bit more detail in the scouting report, teams are doing a better job of forcing Gobert and Favors to move around and help out overmatched teammates, which in turn causes rotations and can be damning. Teams are crashing the offensive glass more, knowing Utah won’t hurt them in transition. Little details around the margins, plus a bit of slippage (admitted throughout the season by Snyder), have been the causes of the slide outside the injuries.
Blake Murphy: The Jazz are half a game out of a playoff spot. Do you like their chances of passing Houston (or whomever) for that final slot, and do you think, as I do, it’s “worth it” to sacrifice a lottery spot to get pasted in the first round, given where they are on the development curve?
Ben Dowsett: I’ll answer the second part first: Yes, I absolutely think it’s worth sacrificing the lottery slot, even if it’s a first-round destruction at the hands of the Warriors or Spurs. The odds of lucking into a top-3 pick are too low to even factor in seriously, and the expected gap in picks assuming no such luck wouldn’t even be that large – I’ve heard whispers from executives that this draft seriously lacks depth, and the difference between picking 14th and, say, 18th doesn’t seem like a massive distinction. Meanwhile, for a guy like Hayward who can (and will) opt out of his contract after next season, I think showing progress on a team level is an important goal that’s worth a small draft consolation.
As for the likelihood, I’m torn. I tweeted after Monday night’s loss to Boston that this was the first time all year I’d been below 50% on Utah making the playoffs, so I guess I have to stand by it, but it’s so close at this point. Each of Houston, Utah and Dallas has plenty of tough games remaining, and it really will likely come down to the wire at this rate. Losses like an inexplicable stinker at home against Brooklyn om Saturday night are just killers for the Jazz – too many more like that and my answer here will be a firm “no.”
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Updates
Raptors
The Raptors are still without DeMarre Carroll, who has progressed to doing some non-contact work but is still a ways from returning. Bruno Caboclo is with Raptors 905 unless he’s recalled to sit in street clothes Wednesday. And hey, Jason Thompson is a Raptor! That shapes up the rotation something like this:
PG: Lowry, Joseph, Wright
SG: DeRozan, Ross, Powell
SF: Johnson
PF: Scola, Patterson, Thompson
C: Valanciunas, Biyombo, Nogueira
One thing I’m interested to see if head coach Dwane Casey tries: Patrick Patterson spotting in at the three. I would have thought the idea was crazy earlier in the season, but with Carroll out, the team possibly wanting Thompson to get his feet wet, and how well Patterson has guarded larger threes when called upon, I think it’s something they might try for small minutes moving forward. Gordon Hayward would be a tough check in that regard, but Utah’s big frontcourt is also the type you’d want to use Thompson against. Something to keep an eye on, anyway.
Jazz
Ben wasn’t kidding about the injuries. Dante Exum is out, there’s been no indication Alec Burks might return, and Trevor Booker is questionable due to a personal matter, too. Tibor Pleiss is also in the D-League, so the Jazz rotation will look something like this, assuming no surprise returns:
PG: Mack, Neto, Burke
SG: Hood, (Burks), Ingles
SF: Hayward, Johnson
PF: Favors, Lyles, (Booker)
C: Gobert, Withey
That’s a lot of tough injury luck, but the Jazz have hung tough. They had the league’s No. 9 defense in February, an improvement, but dunk to 26th in offense, though the Shelvin Mack acquisition should help some in that regard (as will burying Trey Burke).
The Line
The Raptors were 5.5-point favorites 24 hours before tip-off, with 81 percent of the early action going their way. It seems likely the line could push further in Toronto’s favor unless the Jazz get a body back, and one outlet even opened at Raptors -6. The over-under of 193.5 is pretty sharp.
Lowry’s back, the Raptors could get a boost from a new addition, and it seems unlikely that this team will turn in a second consecutive abomination (they’ve lost back-to-back games by double-digits just once all year).
Raptors 100, Jazz 92
