Pattrick Patterson has emerged from the ashes. He has an uncanny ability to come off the bench and help the team dig out of the hole they usually find themselves in with Luis Scola starting at the four. Patterson’s rise from the mediocre corpse he was at the start of the season is a huge relief for the Raptors, who otherwise would’ve had no other solutions to Scola’s inconsistency
The Raptors are flying right now, but that doesn’t mean they can’t still improve. De facto, they probably will need to improve if they want to find any sort of post-season success. There is one area where they suffer game-in game-out, and that’s when Luis Scola is on the floor. Scola, a savvy veteran, overall gentleman, and respectable three-point shooter, has the worst +/- of any of the Raptor starters, and is the only starter to have a negative net rating (albeit at a smudge -.1). His biggest challenge is defending stretch-bigs – he simply can’t do it, and is extremely uncomfortable venturing past 20 feet on defense.
Against the Bulls on Monday, Nikola Mirotic took full advantage.
With Scola on the floor, opponents shoot 40.5% from three. Without him – 35%. Overall, the Raptors have a defensive net rating of 1.7 with Scola on the floor, and without him they shoot up to +9.4. That’s not an insignificant swing by any means. Right now the Argentine power forward is the elephant in the room, and he’s being masked by a couple all-stars and an efficient bench unit that overcomes his deficiencies.
But the Raptors are 2nd in the East, with a small window to snatch the first seed from Cleveland, so does any of this really matter? Dwane Casey doesn’t see Scola as a closer anyway, and seems more concerned about not disrupting the current rotation. Despite Terrence Ross being the 2nd shooting forward on the roster in the overall depth chart after DeMarre Carroll, Dwane Casey still won’t start him with Carroll injured as he prefers Ross off the bench. James Johnson gets the nod instead, and if he can’t go, it’s Norman Powell.
And that’s the idea. Dwane Casey likes Patterson’s energy off the bench, and, even if we cry out for a Patterson / Scola swap daily from now until May, Casey won’t budge on this decision. His intuition and wisdom on this shouldn’t be understated either, the rotation he has going now simply works.
Outside of the continuity in the rotation, there are other concerns Dwane Casey might have with demoting Luis Scola – something that Blake pointed out to me today. Keeping up Scola’s confidence heading into the post-season isn’t being ignored, nor is his role as a respected veteran.
But there is still a concern growing amid this regular season run for the Raptors – arguably their best ever. Here and there teams have exposed them, and these issues could be manifested even greater in the post-season. Stretch-bigs can really punish them early on in games, and even if Dwane Casey can get away with playing ‘catch-up’ after first quarters in the regular season, coming back from a deficit in the playoffs is much more difficult. Every possession becomes critical.
With each passing game, Patterson’s case as a starter grows three-fold. But if Dwane Casey doesn’t want to dabble with the current rotation, the only solution would be to hope Carroll recovers, stays healthy, and starts at the four. This might be the ideal scenario for the Raptors, but it remains to be seen if Dwane Casey would rather see Carroll play there over the three.
Norman Powell is dope
DeMar DeRozan watched last night’s game in Milwaukee from the bench and the Raptors went off for a really fun thumping of the Bucks. Norman Powell grabbed 17 points – playing some sound defense, using his athleticism to get to the rim, and even hitting a couple threes. Threes are one aspect of his game that we’ve all been wanting him to improve on for quite some time, and if he can hit threes at a respectable rate, he is going to be some kind of player – if he isn’t already. If Powell can attract attention from behind the arc consistently, he is going to make a career out of blowing by helpless defenders.
There was a lot of chatter on Twitter about how the Raptors are better without DeMar DeRozan because they, all of a sudden blew-out the Bucks of all teams. ISSSAC (Insanely small sample size alert chill). Simply put, DeRozan helps you win games, even if his defense needs work.
There is some interesting data to come out of this, though. The Raptors have played 830 minutes without DeRozan this season, and they score even more points per 100 possession (by a hair) without him per NBA.com. That’s surprising, and the only thing that might contribute to this is that the ball moves around more with DeMar off the court. On those 100 possession, 54% of the Raptors’ points are assisted when he’s off the court, compared to 49% when he’s on. Defensively, the Raptors do even better, like way better, allowing 7 points less per 100 possessions.
830 minutes is what it is though – too small. It’s just not enough data.
It does help to know the Raptors can afford not to rely on DeRozan too heavily in certain situations though, and that Norman Powell can contribute more than he does. Powell reminds me of DeRozan earlier in his career. The difference is that Powell is a better defender, and is further along than DeMar was in his rookie season. If the Raptors continue to develop Powell, they might have less pressure to give DeRozan the max. This is a crazy claim – and I realize that completely. But if the Raptors have a chance to splash money at another star that would upgrade the team instead of paying DeRozan, Powell’s emergence might make that decision easier.
What’s that draft pick looking like?
And as is tradition on this weekly column, here’s an update on our draft pick, courtesy of Tankathon.
