The Toronto Raptors will look to secure their sixth four-game winning streak of the season on Sunday when they host the Orlando Magic for a rare 4:30 p.m. tip-off on Sportsnet One.
From there, the Raptors will head out on the road for three, but not before taking two days of rest. Those days off have led some to notice that giving a key player or two the day off on Sunday, against a middling Magic outfit, would give them four days of rest, rather than the one or two they would have received in the four-games-in-five-nights stretch. That’s an astute observation, but the honest truth at this point is that we have no idea how deep the team’s rest strategy is for the season’s final month, or even how well non-minutes played parts of the workload have been managed all year.
In other words, I have no idea if Kyle Lowry is going to take a night off to give him reprieve from the league’s third-highest minutes total. Nor do I know if DeMar DeRozan and his top-10 ranks in minutes, free throw attempts, and miles traveled on offense may get a breather. If so, excellent, and if not, well, that’s probably fine too.
Plus, the Raptors may have enough to deal with Sunday, because…
Jonas Valanciunas is available but still a question mark
The Lithuanian center has missed three consecutive games with a hand contusion, and while he was active Friday, he didn’t play, nor was he expected to. He might be ready to go, but given how well Bismack Biyombo has filled in, and the trickle-down effect of Valanciunas’ injury allowing Jason Thompson to get some run, there’s little reason to rush him back. Plus, his counterpart in the Magic paint isn’t playing.
He’s once again being called available, but whether or not he’ll actually play is unclear.
Patrick Patterson is out
Patterson left Friday’s blowout victory in the fourth quarter with a sore ankle. X-rays were negative and head coach Dwane Casey said he was held out as a precaution. The Raptors have no reason to risk anyone or anything right now, so why rush him back with two off-days coming up?
He was ruled out about 90 minutes before game time.
But don’t worry, there is a reinforcement on the way
Bruno Caboclo was recalled from Raptors 905 of the D-League on Sunday. Caboclo scored 10 points on 2-of-7 shooting with the 905 on Saturday, helping them to a second consecutive victory. It seemed likely he’d travel with the 905 for their game in Maine on Sunday, but with the status of so many up in the air, the team must have wanted him as depth, just in case. Or, they were so impressed with his 90 seconds of action on Friday that they want to get him another minute of garbage time Sunday.
Raptors rotation
DeMarre Caroll remains out, Caboclo’s back, James Johnson (plantar fasciitis, Achilles) is available but has been drawing DNPs regularly, Patterson is out, and everyone else, just like every single one of us, is day-to-day. This is how things look for now:
PG: Lowry, Delon Wright
SG: Norman Powell, T.J. Ross
SF: DeRozan, (Johnson), Caboclo
PF: Luis Scola, Jason Thompson
C: Biyombo, (Valanciunas), Lucas Nogueira
If Biyombo and Powell both start again (UPDATE: They will) , the Raptors will be rolling with a starting lineup that’s suddenly played 39 minutes together, their 16th-most used lineup already. That five-some has outscored opponents by 16.7 points per-100 possessions (PPC) in that admittedly small sample. That’s notable since the Raptors have struggled to find starting groups that work all year, but it’s a minor miracle there’s been enough spacing for that group to score, and again, the sample is far too small to draw any conclusions from.
While we’re talking lineups, and only because I don’t have anywhere else for this note – you know how we talk a lot about the Lowry-and-reserves unit? They’ve outscored opponents by 22.2 PPC over 272 minutes. Nearly as important, the DeRozan-and-reserves group has outscored opponents by 11.6 PPC in 201 minutes, finally performing well enough for Lowry to get his rest periods without inciting panic.
Oh, and if Patterson and Valanciunas both sit, it’s Bebe time.
UPDATE: The Raptors confirmed at the start of the second quarter that Cory Joseph will sit for rest. That was obvious when Wright entered the game first, but now it’s confirmed.
UPDATE: Nobody is resting. Now, this isn’t exactly how I’d sell it, since it’s effectively an argument FOR resting him, but it’s fine.
Casey on Lowry-"It showed in the Detroit game who we are without him. DeMar's an all-star in his own right but Kyle's the motor of our team"
— Josh Lewenberg (@JLew1050) March 20, 2016
Magic updates
Elfrid Payton (elbow) is available
Nikola Vucevic (groin) is out
Ersan Ilyaosva (leg) is available
Payton and Ilyasova are both technically available but were game-time calls and may be used sparingly off the bench, if at all. That leaves the Magic looking something like this:
PG: Brandon Jennings, (Payton), C.J. Watson, Shabazz Napier
SG: Victor Oladipo, Devyn Marble
SF: Evan Fournier, Mario Hezonja
PF: Aaron Gordon, (Ilyaosva), Andrew Nicholson
C: Dewayne Dedmon, Jason Smith
That starting five helped lead the Magic to a near-upset of the Cavs on Friday, thanks in large part to 45 points from Oladipo. The fivesome as a whole has only played 41 minutes together over five games, but they’ve destroyed teams to the tune of 26.6 PPC. It’s quite the battle of small-sample starting successes that don’t necessarily make a ton of sense on paper but have been crushing it of late.
And man, Gordon is going to be a problem with no Patterson. Woof.
The line
The Raptors are 9.5-point favorites and were as high as Raptors -10 at one point. It’s a tough game to figure with so many names out or banged up, but you have to like the Raptors’ chances. Raptors 104, Magic 97.
Check out Kiyan’s full game preview here.
Oh, yeah, one more thing…
With a win today, the Raptors would be just one game back of Cleveland.
