Editor’s Note: This is a guest post from Atique Virani.
If you haven’t yet, go read Spencer Redmond’s piece breaking down Bismack Biyombo’s positive impact on the Raptors this season, and floating the idea of starting Biyombo over Jonas Valanciunas in the stretch run. It’s an idea that’s found some traction in forums and comment sections across Raptorland, and it’s not hard to see why. Biyombo is an excellent defender, obviously better at that end of the floor than Valanciunas, and in the playoffs, games slow down and become grind-it-out affairs. Doesn’t it make sense to play someone capable of lifting the team’s defense up almost single-handedly?
The problem with that idea is that it largely ignores Biyombo’s deficiencies, which are perhaps even more glaring than those of Valanciunas. As much improvement as he’s made this season, Biyombo is still a woefully limited offensive player. He can’t consistently hit anything outside of dunking range, and his ability to catch the ball on the move is, on his best days, average. There’s a reason so many of the dunks Biyombo has made this season come when defenses leave him completely alone. Biyombo doesn’t scare anyone on the offensive end, and the attention that he doesn’t draw is refocused into the driving lanes of the perimeter players on the court with him.
This criticism of Biyombo may seem harsh, but it’s not intended to be. Big Biz is one of the best backup centers in the NBA, and an incredible value. If possible, signing him past this summer would be a huge accomplishment. The point here is simply to note that for all his flaws (and they do exist), Valanciunas is both the better player overall, and the better starting option for the Raptors.
A lot has been made this season of the idea that in the new era of the NBA, with just about every team playing a mobile big and bombing threes, big men like Valanciunas are remnants from a bygone era of plodding post play. I’ve never thought much of this idea, largely because I’ve always been enamored with Valanciunas’ ability to impact a game offensively. Few big men are as dangerous on the pick and roll as Valanciunas, and fewer still have the hands and soft touch to finish at the rim like he does. Toronto’s guards don’t pass to the roll man often in the pick and roll, and one of the reasons for that is the driving lanes that open up when defenders are forced to devote part of their energy towards denying Valanciunas the ball near the rim. This gravity is also evident in the three pointers that are opened up by JV’s rim runs, which give shooters like Terrence Ross the space necessary to let fly.
The biggest question with Valanciunas, however, has always been his defense. As fans, we’ve accepted that he will never make an All-Defense team, and may not ever be good. Instead, we’ve toned back our requests, and asked that he merely be passable, enough that he doesn’t actively hurt the team. And guess what? When he hasn’t been saddled with Luis Scola as a frontcourt mate, he’s been average, maybe even above average on defense.
In the 353 minutes Jonas has played with Patrick Patterson, who’s unexpectedly become an excellent defender for the Raptors this season, Toronto has a net rating of +19.8 points per 100 possessions (PPC), with a defensive rating of 103.9, which would be good for 15th in the league. That’s the best net rating for any two-man combination on the team that’s played over 100 minutes together. Compare that to the monstrosity of the Luis Scola-Jonas Valanciunas combination, which has played 794 minutes and put up a net rating of -5.1 PPC, with a defensive rating of 108.0, only slightly better than the league worst defensive rating of the Lakers this season. It’s fair to wonder whether the fact that Valanciunas has played twice as many minutes with Scola as he has with Patterson is to blame for his poor on/off numbers (and it’s worth noting that Scola’s play has improved alongside Biyombo, too).
All of that said, the idea of playing Jonas against second units is an intriguing one. Cory Joseph could use the driving lanes Valanciunas provides, and getting more touches could be beneficial for Valanciunas’ development. That’s why I’m a fan of Blake Murphy’s idea, of benching Valanciunas earlier in the first and third quarters, only to bring him out again with Joseph against bench lineups. It would be a good compromise, a way to let Valanciunas beast against worse defenders, while also not putting too much undue stress on Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan to carry the offense with Biyombo on the court. And as he’s done all season, head coach Dwane Casey would have the option to close with either Biyombo or Valanciunas, as the situation dictates.
That’s the beauty of having to centers with such diametrically opposite play styles and strengths.
