Terrence Ross and I go way back. I mean, sure, he has only been a part of my life for the last four years, and he almost certainly has no idea who I am, but he carries some significance for me.
2012 was the first year that I truly followed the draft all season long. I had previously paid attention in the weeks leading up to the draft, and had always had some idea of what the Raptors draft position was going to look like, but had never previously dived fully into the draft experience.
I fell in love with DraftExpress.com, learned to tolerate NBADraft.net for its entertainment value, and became an ESPN Insider in order to follow Chad Ford’s big board and mock drafts. I was committed, and I fell in love with the entire draft process to the point that it might be my favourite part of the NBA season.
And despite what I thought was a rather in depth study of draft prospects, I, like almost everyone, was shocked to see the Raptors select Ross when Andre Drummond miraculously dropped into their lap. I mean, he was literally sitting right there. How do you look past someone who is simply that large of a man and is 10 feet from the stage??
But due to the incoming presence of Jonas Valanciunas, and the lingering character concerns of Drummond, the Raptors selected a 6’6” wing with hopes of him becoming an elite three-and-D option for the club moving forward.
He’s flirted with it at times, as I’m still delightfully haunted by his 51 point performance against the Los Angeles Clippers, but has never been able to fully maximize his abilities in any type of sustainable way. It’s often seemed like some brain synapses just weren’t firing properly for him.
I even once wrote an article called The Frustration of Terrence Ross, in which I expounded on why he annoyed me so much.
Just like William Lou before me though, Terrence Ross always found a way to suck me back in. He always found a way to tease me into loving him again. I just couldn’t fully quit him.
This back-and-forth love of Ross finally got to be too much for me last summer, and so I created the Terrence Ross Belief Chart. Here is where I was at with Ross on October 7, 2015:
Less than one month later he had signed a three year contract extension worth a reported $31.5 million (it was originally reported to be worth $33 million, but has since been corrected by multiple media outlets).
I was shocked. I hadn’t even let my guard down on Ross and here he was set to earn $10.5 million annually. How could this happen? Why would Ujiri do this to me?
…then this season happened and I’ve got to say, I’m on board with Ross and his extension. Not fully mind you, but I’m past hopefully and am moving towards #FreeRoss territory. His year to date has even been enough for me to start thinking of his extension as a possible bargain moving forward.
Still at just 24 years of age, Ross has (in theory) plenty of room to grow into his abilities and is already showing forward progress towards these goals. He has been a fixture off of the bench all season, has been playing more focused defense, and generally seems more aware of what is happening around him.
With the salary cap set to increase from $70 to potentially $93 million (current rough estimate) this coming summer, the majority of teams are set to have considerable cap space to spend. Is it really so farfetched to think of Ross as earning more than $10.5 million annually if he were to have reached the open market after his year to date?
Take a look at the current stats (per 100 possessions and advanced) for a few notable 2016 free agents, Ross included:
| Rk | G | MP | FGA | FG% | 3PA | 3P% | 2PA | 2P% | FTA | FT% | TRB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | PTS | DRtg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 53 | 1600 | 15.0 | .459 | 4.8 | .377 | 10.2 | .497 | 3.4 | .772 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 1.4 | 3.4 | 18.2 | 107 |
| 2 | 64 | 1796 | 17.2 | .441 | 7.2 | .363 | 10.0 | .499 | 3.5 | .843 | 8.9 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 3.2 | 4.1 | 20.8 | 100 |
| 3 | 63 | 1504 | 17.6 | .430 | 9.9 | .387 | 7.8 | .485 | 1.6 | .826 | 5.2 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 3.5 | 20.3 | 107 |
| 4 | 70 | 1918 | 16.0 | .448 | 1.8 | .183 | 14.2 | .482 | 3.9 | .822 | 8.7 | 7.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 3.6 | 2.9 | 17.8 | 104 |
| Rk | MP | PER | TS% | 3PAr | FTr | TRB% | AST% | STL% | BLK% | TOV% | USG% | WS/48 | BPM | VORP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1600 | 12.3 | .552 | .320 | .229 | 8.3 | 8.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 7.9 | 16.0 | .117 | -0.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 1796 | 13.3 | .554 | .421 | .204 | 9.9 | 12.3 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 14.7 | 19.9 | .095 | 0.1 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1504 | 12.5 | .553 | .558 | .089 | 5.8 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 6.8 | 17.3 | .100 | -0.1 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 1918 | 13.4 | .504 | .113 | .242 | 9.5 | 24.2 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 17.0 | 18.6 | .082 | -0.9 | 0.5 |
Each has their strengths, but the stats are at least close enough to compare for contract purposes.
One of these players is talked about as potentially earning a max contract, while it wouldn’t be surprising to see the other two receive contracts near or bigger than that of Ross’ extension.
Who are they?
- Harrison Barnes
- Kent Bazemore
- Terrence Ross
- Evan Turner
Barnes rejected a four year offer worth $64 million this past fall (average of $16 million per year), and there have been enough reports that some team will challenge Golden State with a maximum offer.
Bazemore and Turner are each set for substantial raises on their current contracts, with multiple suitors reportedly lining up for both. It wouldn’t be shocking to see either one get $12+ million annually.
Do any of these players blow Ross out of the water? Assuming Ross maintains his current level of play throughout his contract, would anyone rather have Barnes at $22 million annually compared to Ross at $10.5 million?
Ross isn’t yet what fans hoped he would be upon his draft selection, but he remains a developing three-and-D wing who has shown flashes of star potential, and is now locked in on what is looking to be a likely bargain contract. He would be a strong trade asset, is currently a solid bench contributor, and could one day be a capable starter on the right team.
I never thought I would get to this point again…but I’m back in on TJ Ross.
