Happy 30th birthday, Kyle Lowry. A few words from somebody who just hit that milestone more than nine months ago: Do not give that round number much power. It is just that — a number, one that happens to fall in between 29 and 31. Even though our culture seems to bow at the altar of digits that are easily divisible, you do not need to let this birthday get inside your head. Should everything that seems solid in your life disintegrate over the next calendar year (believe me, this can happen) it will have been a coincidence, and nothing more.
Life is pretty good for Mr. Lowry right now. He has been selected to start in the all-star game by the fans two years running, pretty impressive for a player whose bonafides as a starter were being questioned a few years ago. He is the best player on one of the five or six best teams in the NBA. He will surely find his way on to a few MVP ballots in May, which is neat. And he is making US$12-million annually, which, while less than he deserves based on his production and the league’s revenues, is a nice sum of money to take home, taxes be damned.
It is that last point that is on the minds of many in this age of public player salaries and the armchair general manager it produces. While the contractual fate of DeMar DeRozan is a more pressing concern, the result, if not his ultimate destination, is a given. With a huge bump coming for the salary cap and nearly all of the league’s teams with space to spare, DeRozan will have his choice of maximum value contracts to choose from. The Raptors, able to offer an extra year and larger annual raises, have the hammer, of course. If the Raptors do retain DeRozan, at least they know they will have him from age 27 through 31 — his theoretical prime. They will be paying a premium, but they should be getting the best years of DeRozan’s career.
Not so with Lowry, who, it should be pointed out, has already defied the normal production curve of a player by having his best season (to date) at age 29. The four-year, US$48-million deal Lowry signed in July 2014 had a player option after the third season. At this rate, Lowry would be silly to not use it, as it would maximize his earning potential for what will likely be his last chance at a long, rich deal. A five-year contract given by the Raptors to Lowry in July 2017 would carry him from age 31 through 35 (he would turn 36 at the end of the fifth year). It is a far cry from the situation they face with DeRozan.
That assumes they would give Lowry that contract. The tea leaves are much harder to read in his case.
Lowry’s timing, when prioritizing making as much money as possible, has never been the best. He was picked late in the first round, and his shaky first few years meant he had to navigate the always murky waters of restricted free agency for his first negotiated contract. Even his big cash-in with the Raptors two summers ago — and again, it is enough money to guarantee he and his family a very comfortable life, blah, blah, blah — came before the details of the league’s new television were known, and, crucially, carried him past age 31. Remember when guaranteeing Lowry US$12-million after one starry season seemed like the Raptors were overpaying, or at least acquiescing to Lowry’s negotiating position? Quaint times. As we know now, the Lowry deal was a steal for the Raptors, even if it would be preferable if he did not have that player option.
Still, it feels like we are heading to what will be a very emotional, complex negotiation with Lowry — not unlike what we are seeing unfold between the Toronto Blue Jays and Jose Bautista. (You will notice that both Lowry and Bautista have taken pains to emphasize how much work they have put into their bodies as their ages have crept up; that work has already paid dividends for Skinny Kyle.) While DeRozan represents the throughline between the Bad Old Days and the Raptors’ recent run, and Jonas Valanciunas has been something of an avatar of hope for the majority of his four years here, Lowry has clearly been the pulsating heart of the Raptors over the last three seasons. Every strip of a big man under the offensive glass, every charge taken, every floor burn feels as if it has fuelled Toronto’s unlikely post-Colangelo run. His transition from average starter to superstar — and that is what he is, as strange as it still sounds to write, say or hear — have been reasons one, two and three for the team’s ascent.
Yet, the prospect of paying him as such breaks the cardinal rule of pro sports contracts: pay for future production, not past production. Gary Payton’s production fell off dramatically after age 33. John Stockton was a freak who still produced double-digit win share seasons in his late 30s, but his peak was still clearly between ages 25 and 32. Chauncey Billups, one of Lowry’s idols, was excellent until 33, until inevitable slippage occurred. As excellent as his play was into his mid-30s, Steve Nash also peaked in his early 30s and fell off a bit after 33.
Nash is an interesting case, even though his game and Lowry’s are not particularly alike as far as point guards are concerned. It was 12 summers ago that the Dallas Mavericks balked at matching the six-year, US$65-million deal the Phoenix Suns offered a 30-year-old Nash. The circumstances were different — Nash had back problems, and the Mavericks had the younger Dirk Nowitzki, their most important player, to build around — but there remained an uncertainty about an all-star point guard being able to keep up his standard of play into his 30s. Nash made that decision look foolish, winning two MVP awards and leading a team that helped change the NBA forever. No big deal.
Regardless, that is the sort of decision the Raptors will be facing. Chances are that this season and next are as good as Lowry will be. As with the Blue Jays and Bautista, they will be reaping the benefits of employing one of the best players in the league at a discounted rate, one negotiated at a time when that rate made more sense than it does now. Assuming another excellent season next year, Lowry will be able to point to his recent production (and the rising cap) as a reason for a massive raise. And the Raptors, like the Blue Jays with Bautista, will be right to worry that paying Lowry deep into his 30s, despite his commitment to staying in great condition and his meaning to the team and city, would come back to bite them before the contract expired.
As with Bautista, the best course of action is to simply savour the present. Lowry is having a special, special season, and he leads the best team in franchise history. The Raptors might not have the championship potential that the Blue Jays have, but they can still do something new for this city this spring. There are still a lot of games to play, and a lot of chapters that will have Lowry driving the plot.
As for Lowry: I am pretty sure your 30s are going to work out just fine for you. Enjoy your day.
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