The Toronto Raptors are set for another road game, and this time in Houston, Texas. Following Wednesday’s loss in Boston, the Raps will be looking to bounce back from a meaningless (but still somewhat disappointing) loss to a young Celtics squad in the thick of a heated mid-tier eastern conference race. The Raps however, did clinch the playoffs following the Bulls loss to the Knicks on Wednesday night. And let’s face it – without Lowry and Patterson, along with Carroll who remains out for the remainder of at least this 3-game road trip, and JV still working his way back, that game was likely indicative of nothing.
This time around, Casey is planning on playing his full starting lineup (without DeMarre Carroll of course), with Norman Powell slated to start at the 3. Patrick Patterson, who’s still nursing a sore ankle suffered to the Celtics last Friday, is listed as questionable for the game. Patterson’s already missed games against Orlando and Boston since then, but there’s no real reason to rush Patterson back or use him in excess, though I’m sure Patman would love to stick it to his old team. If he plays, Patterson won’t be the only Raptor playing his former team tonight – Kyle Lowry’s always fired up to play his former teams, so I expect nothing less than his best either. Not to mention, Kyle will have 2 reasons to celebrate if the Raptors win, as he’s also celebrating his 30th birthday today (which he claims is “just a number”). Sure, 30 is likely the peak of the parabolic NBA career, but let’s just all stay positive and remember this is one of the greatest players this franchise has ever seen and we’re enjoying some of the best basketball in the team’s history. Just take it all in. And then there’s Luis Scola – the veteran, who while I’m sure wants to stick it to his old team, wants to win more than anything else. And hey, I’ll take a slightly more motivated Luis Scola, if it means he’ll hit some corner 3’s, not miss his defensive assignments, and play solid with his back to the basket. I expect Scola to get his fair share of touches, especially early in the game as the Raps like to do.
With the way the Raptors have leaned on Lowry this year, it will be interesting to see Casey’s usage (of both Lowry and DeMar) throughout tonight’s game. Is he going to ride his best horses and try to win one in Houston to avoid a season-series sweep and back-to-back losses? Or stay disciplined and patient, especially in light of the back-to-back tomorrow in New Orleans (given Casey wouldn’t want to bench both tomorrow), meaning at least one of Lowry or DeRozan will be looked upon on both nights. And generally, when one sits out, the other has to do a whole lot more (even against lesser opponents) to seal the victory. Oh and it doesn’t exactly get a whole lot easier once the Raps head home on Tuesday, to play Durant, Westbrook and company.
Tonight’s projected starters and injuries:
Toronto Raptors
PG – Kyle Lowry
SG – DeMar DeRozan
SF – Norman Powell
PF – Luis Scola
C – Jonas Valanciunas
Houston Rockets
PG – Patrick Beverley
SG – James Harden
SF – Trevor Ariza
PF – Donatas Motiejunas
C – Dwight Howard
Injuries – Rockets
– Same Dekker (back soreness – out indefinitely)
Injuries – Raptors
– Patrick Patterson (sore left ankle – questionable)
– DeMarre Carroll (right knee surgery – out indefinitely)
In their previous meeting at the ACC just a few weeks ago, Houston dominated the second half thanks to a steady diet of Corey Brewer, Trevor Ariza, and James Harden 3’s that sunk the Raptors and helped Houston run away with a 113-107 victory. Harden went off for 40, Dwight Howard had a typical game he’s been having against the Raps his entire career, and that was more than enough for Houston.
Keys to the Game
– Don’t Fear the Beard: Stopping James Harden is going to require pressure man-to-man defense, even well outside the three-point arc, and is going to require defenders DeRozan, Powell, Johnson, etc. to fight through screens, not gamble with the hands, and be wary of Harden’s craftiness driving into the paint. DeMar knows all too well what it takes to get to the line, and some of that knowledge is going to have to help him lock up Chef Harden.
– Movement and Offensive Cohesiveness: The Celtics put up 24 assists on Wednesday against the Raptors, who only mustered up 13. Offensive movement was lacking, passing was lacking, and shots that normally fall were rimming out. Some of that is due to Lowry sitting out of course, but 13 assists isn’t going to cut it on most nights. To match the firepower of the Rockets, especially on the road, taking care of and passing the rock effectively will be a key.
– Attack with JV: JV is going to be a key cog in this machine to supplement the Lowry/DeRozan two-headed monster, and will likely be the factor in the playoffs that teams will have to deal with inside (he is after all, a much more polished offensive product than Biyombo). So the Raptors really have to establish his presence down low to keep defenses honest.
– Force turnovers: Houston is fourth-last in the league at ball protection, averaging just over 16 turnovers a game. There’s a fine balance between being too aggressive on D (especially against the likes of Harden) and just playing solid, so the Raps will have to find that tonight. One thing’s for sure though, the ball is going to be there for the taking. Getting it and getting run outs will be key.
The Line/Prediction
The line looks virtually even between these two teams, with both the Raps and Rockets teetering with each other as 1-point favourites. If Lowry and DeRozan are looked upon (which is less than ideal to be perfectly honest), I think the Raps will take this one. While rest and preservation is important, losing streaks are never good. Not going into the playoffs. I’ll take the Raps by 3.
