Fan Duel Toronto Raptors

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Raptors Mailbag: A lot of Norman Powell talk

The final mailbag of the regular season.

With back-to-back days off, we’re back for the usual #RRMailbag. This will be the final mailbag of the regular season. If you want to catch up on all the previous mailbags, you can find them here.

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Alright, let’s get this money.

A lot of Norman Powell talk

A couple of weeks ago, I would have said no. Not because Powell hasn’t impressed, but because when it looked like DeMarre Carroll could be back in time to shake the rust off for the playoffs, there simply wasn’t room – playoff rotations shrink to eight or nine players, and I figured Powell had done enough to carve out a share of the “10th Man/Matchup Specialist” role against certain opponents.

Now? If Carroll gets back for the final couple games of the season, and if he gets back at all, it seems unlikely he’d be able to build up to a full workload for the postseason. I’m not sure if Dwane Casey would opt to start him (I would, because his defensive value would be best leveraged against opposing starters), but whether Carroll or Powell starts, I think Powell’s now looking at a small share of the wing minutes. Small, though. Cory Joseph probably stands to play his usual 15 minutes alongside Kyle Lowry, DeMar DeRozan will play 40 minutes, Terrence Ross will play 25, and Carroll may play 20 (theoretically, some as a small four).

Powell’s full load is tied to how much Carroll can play and who the specific opponent is, but I now expect he’ll see time. Which is really unbelievable.

I forget the commenter, but I think someone said Russell Westbrook. Let’s go with that.

(Realistically, I still really like Jesse Mermuys’ “Tony Allen with a jump-shot” for Powell, though I think Powell’s also a better straight-line driver and distributor. But Allen was an all-world defender, so it’s still heady praise.)

I don’t think Powell’s been ruled out for Vegas. As a sophomore, the team would be justified in asking him to, and he may want to play ball. And it wouldn’t hurt, but he was All-Tournament last summer and then killed it in the D-League, too. If he goes, it will be to work on a few specific things and stay fresh. (Remember, even DeRozan, with whom Powell will be working this offseason, occasionally gets into some Drew League games.)

As for Lucas Nogueira, the latest is that he won’t be playing for Brazil in the Olympics (he’s changed his tone on this a couple times), but I really can’t purport to know. I know he’s getting marriedthis offseason, too, so he may just have too much going on. Or be on the trading block! Who knows?

(Sorry, I wish I had firmer answers. Sourceless Joe Jackson over here.)

I think this is something you could get away with for small bench minutes if you ever needed to, but I don’t think you ever pencil Powell in as a point guard on the depth chart. He played a fair amount of it with the 905 and acquitted himself well, and you’re right that he’s done well with the ball, but his biggest NBA skill on offense may wind up being attacking off the catch from the wing/corner. This isn’t a negative, though – his versatility at both ends is huge, and if he continues to add strength and range, his ability to spot in across three positions (he can definitely guard ones) makes his path to future playing time a lot easier to figure.

The Raptors signed Powell to a three-year deal this summer. He’s making $650,000 this season, about $125K more than the rookie minimum, and will then make the minimum ($874,636, fully guaranteed) next season, with a non-guaranteed third year at the league minimum ($1,014,746) for 2017-18 (it becomes guaranteed on June 29, 2017, though, so it’s essentially a team option). After that, he’d be a restricted free agent (summer of 2018), and the Raptors would own his full Bird rights.

The Raptors were smart to give him a three-year deal this summer, something that second-round picks don’t always get. Teams can sign second-rounders to the minimum for up to two years, but tacking on a third year (in order to acquire the player’s Bird rights) requires dipping into cap space instead of using a minimum salary exception. The Raptors did just that, as suggested, and they look really smart for it now. They have a rotation player making the minimum the next two seasons.

It doesn’t hurt, but I’m not sure you start shaping the roster around him (more on this the next two questions). The biggest thing I think it does is open up options on draft night – six months ago, it looked unlikely the Raptors would use one, let alone two, of their draft picks, because one third of the roster was already dedicated to development projects. If Anthony Bennett’s gone, Powell is no longer considered a development project, and Nogueira is (ostensibly) a useful third-year player, then it’s really just Delon Wright and Bruno Caboclo still under the “development” label. Essentially, Powell’s rapid rise to the rotation has, to me, made using one of the picks on a non-Euro-stash more realistic.

Part of the draw of Ross’ extension was that he could be an attractive trade chip if he had a good season. That remains the case, as he’s turned in a solid year and his contract looks to be market value entering a huge cap explosion. Like above, I don’t think Powell’s play necessarily forces the team’s hand with Ross. I think he was already a trade chip in the right deal, and I get the feeling that Masai Ujiri, despite valuing chemistry and continuity, doesn’t see any non-star as untouchable. Ross still adds shooting and spacing that Powell doesn’t, something the team is a little starved for, so it’d have to be the right deal.

OK, Powell’s been good and really encouraging, but he doesn’t factor in this much. He’s shown he can start in a pinch, but you’re talking about letting a max-contract All-Star walk for a rookie with 534 minutes to his name.

The real answer to the last three questions is this: The offseason doesn’t work around one player or one move, really. Powell, Ross, DeRozan…they’re all intertwined, but the Raptors are going to look at every move from a holistic team perspective. If letting DeRozan walk gives them the flexibility to add a different piece, and they trust Powell to help balance the roster, or if they can swing Ross for help elsewhere and trust Powell to shift into his role, or they think Powell’s ready enough to justify using a draft pick…none of these are one-off “A or B” decisions. Powell’s development and emergence have been awesome, and he could be a big factor in how the team shapes up next season, because he’s a versatile NBA rotation player who costs nothing, not because he’s necessarily taking someone else’s job.

Looking ahead to the draft and beyond

Johnson is on the fringe of the first-round, so he could figure to be available with the Raptors’own pick. The Raptors obviously leaned toward seniors last season, and Johnson’s had a big role on a potential championship team. As a power forward – his likely NBA position – he’s not super long or strong but makes up for it with good hops, quickness, and defensive tenacity. He’s a nice NBA prospect.

As far as his fit with the Raptors, it’s important to note two things: One, I’m always a “best player available” type because rosters are too fluid and rookies make far too little an impact to be drafting on need, especially this late. Two, Johnson would need to impress with his jumper in workouts. He’s never hit a college three, and while he’s hit 46.1 percent of his 2-point jumpers this season, his range definitely needs to improve. The Raptors have shown they believe they can develop shooting, even in older prospects (it was a knock against both Powell and Wright).

This isn’t really answering the question, but I still need to do more research on the later first-round picks before formulating my usual tiers/rankings for the Raptors.

DraftExpress has him as the No. 44 prospect but haven’t mocked him yet and Chad Ford says scouts are all over the place, ranging from the lottery to the second round. So…if those guys don’t really know, I have no clue. Best guess is a late first-round flier type. From what I’ve seen, he’s far away.

The biggest piece of this question is whether Maker would accept a full D-League “domestic draft-and-stash” season. He’d only stand to make a D-League salary ($25,500 maximum) in that case, but the Raptors wouldn’t have to burn the first year of his rookie deal (like they did with Caboclo), and he couldn’t be called up, but it would give him a full season of development within an organization that has quickly shown it can really develop talent at the D-League level.

If he won’t play ball with that Josh Huestis strategy, it’s a much tougher sell for me. Caboclo won’t be ready for major NBA time next year, and essentially punting the final two roster spots when you’re competing just doesn’t sit well for me. And again, Maker is really far away.

I really don’t even want to think about it. If they’re knocked out in the first round, Casey almost definitely loses his job, and no player is pinned down. Even with a deep run, I think Ujiri looks at all options for improving the team in the short- and long-term. A second-round exit would depend a lot on the opponent and how it plays out – it’s tough to judge the reaction to an outcome ahead of time without the benefit of context. I can tell you, however, that if they’re swept in the first round again, I’m going into hiding and never coming out.

Other Raptors questions

I still feel mostly how I felt back on Dec. 29. It’s too early to judge a 2015 draft pick, you can’t draft based on perceived need, and it’s possible, even likely, both turn out to be decent players.

Eh, the more people rooting for the teams, the better. I don’t get too worked up about “bandwagon” fans or perceived broification, so long as everyone’s rooting for the team and being cool to each other. But probably Jays, forced to pick, just because they have a larger physical capacity to gain fans.

This would be the worst possible outcome for both of us, so I can say with 100 percent certainty that it is going to happen.

I think the biggest thing in their way, if there’s anything, would be mental. They’re better than Indiana, Detroit, and Washington, and I still think they’re better than Chicago (and the Bulls are two games out with only five to go). They should beat those teams, even without Carroll, so as long as they get to the first round healthy, it’s jsut a matter of psychology from there.

Give the Raptors credit for getting each some rest over the season’s closing weeks. (Ditto for other players, too). With six games left to play, I’d probably sit them each once and really ease off the gas – the Raptors are more or less locked into the two-seed, but you don’t want guys to go in rusty, either. The Pacers game on Friday seems like a good option, on the second night of a back-to-back, with the Blue Jays’ home opener that night, and with a Pacers win potentially helping keep the Bulls out of the playoffs. (Am I being selfish here because I’ll be at a Fangraphs meet-up at Firkin on King for the Jays’ opener? Absolutely.)

The final three games of the season are also a good opportunity – Knicks, 76ers, Nets – to sit someone for a game and not risk losing.

He told me a few weeks back he’ll “definitely” hit a three next year. In seriousness, no, not the 3-point line, but his range is already pretty well established for an interior center – he’s shooting 47.1 percent outside of 10 feet this season and is taking more than an attempt per-game in the mid-range. He can continue improving, but he’s already pretty solid.

Miscellaneous

The popular pick would be Ronald Roberts, who main-roster fans have been clamoring for essentially since his debut. Unfortunately, he’s sidelined with a knee injury. TNA-adjace Greg Smith and Indy superstar Axel Toupane have already gotten nods, so if anyone’s going to get a quick end-of-season look, it’s the 905’s Tye Dillinger, Scott Suggs.

This is just a way for me to plug that I’m back at Rotographs full-time and occasionally Fangraphs and some other baseball stuff, if you need even more of your boy.

The only reason is that there aren’t other options John Gibbons is comfortable with. He wants Troy Tulowitzki wrapping up the heart, Devon Travis is injured, Josh Donaldson fits so well in the two-hole, and the two options I like best – Russell Martin (catcher’s workload) and Michael Saunders (lefty, injury prone) – would require lineup juggling on some days. That’s my best guess (I don’t think it’s a speed thing, because the numbers uggsest you should run less ahead of power hitters, and Revere/Reyes ran less in Toronto than in Philadelphia/Colorado). I wrote about this a bit more here.

North Carolina 80, Villanova 72.

As a reminder, if you appreciate the content we produce, want to support RR, and have the means to do so, we’ve started a Patreon page at patreon.com/RaptorsRepublic. Any contribution is greatly appreciated and will help us continue to do what we do, and try to do even more.