The Charlotte Hornets are in town tonight. Or, if you’re a curmudgeon, the Bobcats are.
Don’t be that guy.
The Hornets are one of the hottest teams in the Eastern Conference these days, winning 22 of their last 29 games and skyrocketing through the standings. They currently sit in the sixth seed in the Eastern Conference, just half a game back of the third seed. With games against the New York Knicks, Brooklyn Nets, and Orlando Magic closing out their season, there’s a decent chance they’ll finish just below the Raptors in the standings.
The Hornets have been a thorn in the Raptors’ side over the last several seasons, with the Raptors winning just three of the two squads’ last nine games against each other. That’s no surprise, as on paper the two teams match up well at just about every position, with the Hornets even having an advantage in a couple, too.
You’d think Kyle Lowry’s strength and Kemba Walker’s speed would allow each player to have their way with the other on offense, but that hasn’t been the case historically. In fact, Lowry has shot just 36.4 percent from the field and Walker’s shot just 38.7 percent in the duo’s 11 games against each other. Both players wear their hearts not on their sleeves but on their chests, taking every individual matchup seriously and seeing losses as a transgressions against them personally. That’s generally the recipe for exciting basketball.
Whether or not Lowry plays tonight remains to be seen, mind you. My money’s on nope as of when this preview was written, but we’ll see.
The Hornets are without Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, who’s been sidelined with a torn labrum since February. Al Jefferson, who up until recently was playing exceptionally well, is listed as questionable with a sore quad. Nicolas Batum, who tweaked his left knee in the Hornets’ game against the Cleveland Cavaliers on Sunday, is also listed as questionable. Don’t be surprised if both players end up playing in tonight’s game, though. Charlotte’s desperate for homecourt advantage in the playoffs; they have the sixth best home record in the NBA and they know it.
For the Raptors, it’s likely that DeMarre Carroll is out, and if head coach Dwane Casey is committed to resting his stars, DeMar DeRozan and Lowry might be too. The Raptors are firmly in the second seed and have no reason to give their starters big minutes, especially if either team gets out to a substantial lead early in the game. That said, I’d like to see Casey roll out his full line of starters — Lowry, DeRozan, Carroll, Luis Scola, and Jonas Valanciunas — at least once before the playoffs.
So, tonight’s projected starters are:
PG: Kyle Lowry vs Kemba Walker
SG: Norman Powell vs Courtney Lee
SF: DeMar DeRozan vs Nicolas Batum
PF: Luis Scola vs Marvin Williams
C: Jonas Valanciunas vs Cody Zeller
The matchup at point guard is difficult to project, as Lowry and Walker have had tremendous games against each other, but have also had pretty terrible ones, too.
At shooting guard, I’d give the edge to Courtney Lee, but it’s close. Powell’s finally matched up with someone of a similar size to him, but Lee’s veteran savvy and fill-in-the-gaps style of play should win out. Powell does have the strength advantage, mind you, though I’m unsure of when that could be useful considering neither player is all that fond of playing in the post.
Batum’s length — assuming he’s playing — could take DeRozan’s midrange jumper out of the equation, but my guess is that DeRozan’s quickness and ball-handling prove to be too much for Batum’s sore knee to keep up with. If Batum’s not playing, DeRozan will have no problems lighting up Lee, Jeremy Lamb, and Troy Daniels. Small forward’s one position the Hornets are shallow at, especially if the opponent’s swingman has a combination of size and strength like DeRozan does.
Scola’s going to struggle against Williams, and I’d be shocked if Casey doesn’t go to Patrick Patterson early and often as a result. Williams is having his best season by far as a pro, operating as a glue guy in the same way Kidd-Gilchrist did last season. He’s not only anchoring the team’s defense, but he’s shooting a career-high 39.7 percent from behind the arc and leads the team in blocks, too. Patterson’s quickness and length are more valuable than whatever Scola can provide, and I mean that in the nicest way possible.
At center, Valanciunas should come out on top. The Hornets do have size — a lot of it — and thus have the option of playing physically against him, but Hornets head coach Steve Clifford’s not fond of fouling players to prevent possible scores. He’d rather the team play the best defense they can and crash the rim than risk bailing out an opponent. If Valanciunas gets touches in the post against Zeller, though, he shouldn’t have an issue scoring consistently. My fear is that the Raptors will try to hit Valanciunas on rolls to the basket. The Hornets’ help defense inside is phenomenal, so that won’t work often, if at all.
While the Raptors and Hornets are both excellent offensive teams (both have top-10 offenses this season), the ways they go about scoring the basketball are very different. The Raptors play a slow, methodical game that relies heavily on pick-and-roll play and to score and find open players. The Hornets, on the other hand, run a 4-out, motion-heavy offense that looks to swing the ball around the perimeter for open jump shots while punishing closeouts with dribble penetration from Walker and Batum. When Jefferson’s available, they have the luxury of dumping the ball inside and capitalizing on double teams, too.
To stop the Hornets’ offense, you really just have to double down on Kemba, even if that means leaving other players open from time to time. The Hornets are 9-13 when he scores 15 or fewer points, and while he’s a better passer than he’s given credit for, he’s more likely to take a semi-contested shot than he is to reset the offense. In fact, the Hornets rely on Batum to facilitate their offense more than they do Kemba, as weird as that might seem. Since the All-Star Break, Walker’s played off-ball more than I’ve seen in his career. He’s still ball dominant, but he’s going to run around a screen or two first and get the ball with the defense already out of position. If the Raptors can play him tight, they should win tonight.
And if Batum’s out? Ha.
Offensively, getting the ball to the post can beat Charlotte more often than not. Yes, the Hornets have good size inside, but lack interior defense in one-on-one settings: Zeller is quick and smart, but lacks length; Hawes is huge, but slow and prone to fouling when he’s hit with a good move; Jefferson, should he play, is even slower than Hawes; and Frank Kaminsky, while tall and long, isn’t very strong. A nice fake can take him out of a play. Their best post defender is probably Williams, honestly, and chances are he’ll be floating around the perimeter guarding Scola, Patterson, and Jason Thompson. And if the Raptors go to Lowry and DeRozan for post offense? Well, the Hornets have nothing to guard them one on one.
All in all, it’s difficult to project what direction this game will go in. Key pieces could sit for both teams. The Raptors don’t necessarily need a win, but might want to test a few lineups out against the Hornets to prepare for the possibility of playing the Hornets in the playoffs. The Hornets, on the other hand, will without a doubt be playing to improve their seeding. These two teams have different priorities right now, basically.
Tip off is at 7:30 p.m., and you can watch the game on TSN. If you’re still into radio, I respect you for keeping that medium alive and recommend you tune into TSN Radio 1050 AM.