The Toronto Raptors will face the Indiana Pacers in the first round of the 2016 NBA Playoffs.
With a victory over the New York Knicks on Tuesday, the Pacers improved to 44-37 on the season. Moments later, the Detroit Pistons lost to the Miami Heat (shout out to the eternally-on-fire, the Seven-Time All-Star, the Armadillo Cowboy, Joe Johnson and his 15 fourth-quarter points), dropping them a game back of the Pacers. While both teams have a game left to play Wednesday, the Pacers are a game up and own the tiebreaker, so they’ll be visiting Toronto on Saturday or Sunday.
We won’t know the Raptors’ playoff schedule until late Wednesday night, but we know at least this much: They’ll play two in Toronto, and then two in Indiana. This is mostly a favorable outcome, or at least not a bad one. If asked, they probably wouldn’t have had a strong preference between Indiana and Detroit, and an informal survey of twitter and writer friends reveals a mix of opinion on who the better matchup if for the Raptors.
Personally, I think they matchup a little better with Indiana, even though Indiana is a better team on the whole. George Hill is a really nice two-way piece, Myles Turner is an awesome long-term prospect, and Paul George is terrific, but George is also hobbled by a troublesome ankle right now (he’s playing, but the diagnosis of the ailment keeps changing, and he looks less than 100 percent). The Raptors have mostly shut George down this season, but that’s probably not sustainable – the goal will be to limit him as best they can straight-up, maybe blitz some off-ball actions, let the Pacers bigs shoot long twos, and shut down everything else.
Carroll on facing Pacers: "Love it. Paul George is one of the best in the league but its not my first rodeo against him. Its gonna be great"
— Josh Lewenberg (@JLew1050) April 13, 2016
From there, the Pacers are a little thin on backcourt defenders and frontcourt offensive threats, though Ian Mahinmi has taken nice strides. The Raptors have the edge at the point with Kyle Lowry, and in the paint, as the Pacers’ bigs can stretch things to the mid-range but not quite the 3-point line and could struggle with the size of Jonas Valanciunas. The wing battle may wind up even depending on how game Monta Ellis is defensively and how up-to-speed DeMarre Carroll looks opposite George. The Pacers hold a bit of a chip with the option to revert to their early-season setup with C.J. Miles starting in place of Lavoy Allen, but they grew uncomfortable playing that way, and Dwane Casey may be more willing to counter with Patrick Patterson in the starting lineup now that it’s a playoff series.
Here’s how the rotations figure to break down, at least based on how the teams have played of late:
PG: Kyle Lowry, Cory Joseph, (Delon Wright) vs. George Hill, Ty Lawson, Joseph Young
SG: Norman Powell, T.J. Ross vs. Monta Ellis, Rodney Stuckey
SF: DeMar DeRozan, DeMarre Carroll, James Johnson, (Bruno Caboclo) vs. Paul George, C.J. Miles, Solomon Hill, Glenn Robinson
PF: Luis Scola, Patrick Patterson, Jason Thompson vs. Lavoy Allen, Myles Turner, (Rakeem Christmas)
C: Jonas Valanciunas, Bismack Biyombo, Lucas Nogueira vs. Ian Mahinmi, Jordan Hill, (Shayne Whittington)
The Raptors went 3-1 against the Pacers during the regular season, though we’ve all learned better than to trust that for much after last season. “Raptors in six” will probably be the popular pick here, but there’s a chance they could put things away in five or require seven (shocking that a playoff series isn’t going to be a cakewalk and is hard to nail down, right?). Toronto is the favorite, and rigthfully so.
We’ll have plenty of preview content beginning Thursday and running through whenever Game 1 tips off.
