Raptors-Pacers Series Preview: Outside perspectives

A little earlier, we went deep into the Toronto Raptors first-round matchup with the Indiana Pacers with the help of a pair of terrific Pacers writers. Tomorrow, our Raptors Republic Roundtable will drop, providing the Raptors-writer side of the coin.

It can also be instructive to get perspectives from outside of the team-specific bubble. Those without a rooting (or writing) interest in the series have the benefit of more space, a balance of knowledge across both teams, and less potential bias. Getting their opinions can help further color the picture ahead of Game 1.

So we reached out to a handful of writers from around the league for their take on Raptors-Pacers, asking them two simple questions.

What is the biggest strength/opportunity/key to the series for each team?

Andrew Lynch: For the Raptors, it’s that they’re just the better team. Those who haven’t watched Toronto much this season don’t know how good the Raptors really are. They’re deep, they can beat you from anywhere on the court, and Kyle Lowry gives them the edge you need in the playoffs. Oh, and Bismack Biyombo might be the most underrated player in the NBA, because once we form an opinion about a guy, we’re not very good at changing our minds when we get new information. Does he struggle with handling the ball sometimes? Sure. But he’s an outstanding defender, and he’s only getting better.

For the Pacers, it comes down to two major keys. They’ll need Paul George to be the best player in the series — and it can’t be close. He needs to absolutely dominate. And Indiana will need a big performance from rookie Myles Turner. His versatility and ability to stretch the floor could give the Pacers an advantage on the frontline, but only if he’s up for the intensity of the playoffs. Fortunately, with less than 1,400 minutes played this season, Turner should have plenty left in the tank for the postseason.

Michael Pina: There are two reasons why I’m not picking Toronto to sweep: 1) Despite struggling in all four of his meetings against the Raptors this season, Paul George will turn into the T-1000, average at least 45 minutes per game and play like a two-way superstar, 2) Kyle Lowry’s splits over his last eight games are gross (32.0/32.8/64.0); even though all signs point to his elbow being 100 percent healthy, he’s not shooting the ball like he was earlier in the year. If Lowry plays as well as he should, the Raptors have nothing to worry about. If Lowry struggles, the Raps should worry, but they’d still probably win.

Dan Feldman: Raptors: talent. Toronto is the better team and has been throughout the season. The Pacers are strong defensively, but they’re not elite at keeping players off the line — a Raptors strength. I’m not convinced Indiana has the ability to stick with Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan.

Pacers: versatility. Indiana can play multiple styles, and maybe Frank Vogel finds one that gives Toronto trouble before it’s too late. After the last couple years, how secure do Raptors fans feel about a playoff series that comes down to Dwane Casey making adjustments?

Fred Katz: Pacers: People don’t realize how effective Ian Mahimni has been this year, especially contesting shots around he rim. He’s been the anchor of a top-five defense, and he’s actually fouling less than he ever has before. DeMar DeRozan is going to get his points and get to the line simply because he’s DeMar DeRozan, but if Mahinmi & Co. can limit DeRozan’s efficiency in the paint as a help defender and force one of the league’s best penetrators to become more reliant on his jump shot, the Raptors offense becomes immediately more limited, even if it does all start with Lowry.

Raptors: Kyle Lowry collapsed during the second half of last year, and that bled into the Raptors’ first-round series against Washington, which ended in a four-game sweep. Lowry has bounced back more than nicely. He’s inarguably played himself onto an All-NBA team, but that needs to persist into the postseason. As great as DeRozan can be, this is Lowry’s team. The Raptors go as he does.

Justin Rowan: Big key for Indiana will be how heavily they lean on their small ball lineups. Raptors have a lot of big man depth and Indiana can force a lot of them to stay on the bench and test the bigs that struggle defensively like Valanciunas and Scola with small ball looks. For Toronto the key is going to be containing Indy’s guard play and rotation management from Dwane Casey. Casey has a lot of depth at his disposal, but it’s up to him to not rely on the “hockey shifts” the same way he has in the regular season and make the proper adjustments at the right time. He’s been outcoached the last two years in the playoffs, but this time he has the much better team and no excuses, he needs to be better.

Amin Vafa: If I were to base this analysis solely on the last 30 minutes of Jurassic World, I would say that dinosaurs are much more powerful than automobiles, primarily because they travel in packs, even if automobiles are faster. So in that sense, I think the Raps will do a lot of trapping and zone defense, but the Pacers will capitalize on Toronto’s slow pace to make things difficult.

Andrew Unterberger: Raptors have Drake, Pacers are obviously dead inside.

Who takes the series, and in how many games?

Andrew Unterberger: Raptors in 4.

Amin Vafa: I think the Raps take the series in 6 games. I think the Pacers will be a tough out, but ultimately the Raps will prevail. And I have to think so, because two very dear friends of mine are Raps fans, and they’re getting married this summer. And as an early gift to them, I am predicting a Raptors victory. But because I am stingy, I am allotting the Pacers two wins.

Justin Rowan: Raptors take the series in six games. I wanted to say five, but with integrating a new piece in Carroll and trying to get over the mental hump I’ll say six.

Fred Katz: Raptors in 6.

Dan Feldman: Raptors in 6.

Michael Pina: Raptors in 6.

Andrew Lynch: Raptors in 5.

Other outside opinions

FiveThirtyEight gives the Raptors an 82-percent chance to win the series. ESPN’s Kevin Pelton ranks Indiana-Toronto as the least likely East series to result in an upset, pegging the Raptors with a 79-percent chance to win the series.

Bovada has the Raptors as +500 to win the East (second only to Cleveland) and +3300 to win it all (sixth). Westgate Superbook has the Raptors fifth in title odds at +2500. Series prices have not been released.

Covers is projecting a Raptors -5.5 opening line for Game 1.

Adi Joseph of Sporting News has Raptors in 5. All six CBS analysts picked the Raptors, in varying number of games.

We’ll add more odds and expert picks to this space over the course of Thursday and Friday as people release them.