The playoffs are finally here. The 56-26 Toronto Raptors drew the second seed in the Eastern Conference, and as a result they’ll host the seventh-seeded, 45-37 Indiana Pacers. The series tips off Saturday at 12:30 and pits the Raptors’ excellent offense and decent defense against Indiana’s middling offense and elite defense.
To help set the stage for the series, we reached out to a pair of excellent Pacers writers in Ian Levy (of Hardwood Paroxysm and many other places) and Jared Wade (of 8 Points, 9 Seconds), and they were kind enough to provide deep, thoughtful answers to an annoyingly long list of questions I sent their way. Give those guys a follow and be sure to check out 8P9S for the Pacers’ side of things throughout the series.
Blake Murphy: The Pacers made a mid-season switch from a smaller starting group with C.J. Miles to a more traditional starting five, first with Myles Turner and later with Lavoy Allen. Was that change a success? It’s been a terrific defensive unit, maybe the team’s best (outside of small-sample groups). Given the trouble that the Raptors’ current starting frontcourt has with stretchier opponents, could you see Frank Vogel reverting to the original plan with a smaller lineup for this series, or has the new fivesome been too good defensively?
(It’s interesting to note that the four meetings between the two teams in the regular season included seven different starting lineups.)
Ian Levy: The switch to Turner made a big impact initially but he hit the wall a little bit and he still plays with some of that counter-productive freneticism that is common to rookies. The lineup change that followed that was using Solomon Hill as a small-ball power forward, but he’s shooting 27.3 percent on three-pointers so I’d hesitate to call those lineups stretchy. I would expect that Vogel doesn’t feel tied to any one particular strategy in this series. The mixing and matching, mostly by necessity, has given him a good sample to evaluate on. He’ll keep making adjustments until he finds one that works, or the Pacers get eliminated, whatever comes first.
Jared Wade: One of Frank Vogel’s flaws is that he sometimes isn’t quick to adjust. This was most famously on display when he refused to play Roy Hibbert less against the spread Hawks until the number-1-seeded Pacers nearly got knocked out in the first round by an 8-seed.
I think now, with the wide array of similarly talented players he has on the bench, he will mix things up a bit more. Given Toronto’s front court depth, I think Vogel will be reticent to initiate the small ball. Lately, he has gone to it only to match the opposition, yanking Myles Turner, for example, late in games when he was struggling to chase guys around the perimeter in favor of Solomon Hill.
But there will be times of desperation in this series for Indiana, I imagine. So I bet Frank does throw out those lineups with CJ Miles or Solomon Hill at the four. I wouldn’t expect to see a ton of it when the Pacers have the lead or the game is within a few points though.
Blake Murphy: From an outsider’s perspective, everything with the Pacers seems to start and end with Paul George. He’s terrific, an all-world defender and a very dangerous scorer and wing distributor. Tasked with a heavy workload, his efficiency dipped a little in the middle of the season, but he was still remarkably effective for a guy coming off nearly an entire season lost to injury. But he hasn’t played well against the Raptors, and he’s dealing with a bit of an ankle issue entering the postseason. How confident are you in George being the best player in the series, and is him doing so an absolute necessity?
Jared Wade: I love me some Kyle Lowry, but, yeah, PG is the best dude wearing shoes in this matchup. You’re right in that he really fell off, efficiency-wise, after his lethal start to the season. He was arguably the second-best player (and first-best non-alien) in the NBA in November and walked to the Player of the Month award. But then he hit a wall hard and was really never right again until the All-Star break. He played through it, but he noted to the press that he was struggling to keep his legs around Christmas time. He couldn’t make shots and was showing signs of fatigue, like fading a lot and settling for long-2s rather than attacking the rim. His shooting percentage fell into the high-30s for a two-month stretch (although he took so many 3s that eFG%, while not good, wasn’t horrendous).
He seems to be back right now. He’s still struggling with consistency, but that was his deal before the broken leg, and he’s had some electric performances — and some unreal quarters — since the All-Star break. The ankle is lingering for sure, but he skipped the team’s final game of the season, so I don’t think it will be a huge factor in the series. Everyone is banged up after 82 games.
If he plays like he did in November, the Pacers can win the series. Keep in mind that he was at like 28, 9, and 7 then, so I wouldn’t consider that likely. But if there is any chance Indiana wins, it will be because PG looks like a top-5 player and the rest of the team hits their 3s while he draws the defense.
Ian Levy: I’m of the mind that the Pacers are at their best when George is able to take a step back. He is the team’s best offensive player, by a country mile, but when his usage increases it usually means he’s taking more off-the-dribble long two-pointers. That introduces a high degree of variance and we’ve seen similar drops in efficiencies his last few healthy seasons. The Pacers need him to be their best player, but he’s at his best when George Hill, Monta Ellis, and Ty Lawson are effective, attacking off the dribble and keeping the defense moving.
Blake Murphy: The jury’s still out on the risk-free addition of Ty Lawson late in the season, but it looks as if backcourt defense could be an issue for Indiana outside of George Hill. Moving George on to DeMar DeRozan when DeRozan’s the shooting guard is an obvious option to alleviate that, though any move like that creates opportunities elsewhere. Do the Pacers have the guard depth to defend as well as they’re accustomed to?
Ian Levy: Probably not, but really this is about trade-offs. Ellis and Lawson are not the kind of disciplined, smothering defenders the Pacers have had in the backcourt in the past few seasons. They’re not shutting anyone down but they do create turnovers and help turn defense into offense. Indiana gets fewer stops when either or both are on the floor, but the stops they do get are more likely to turn into good transition looks at the other end.
Jared Wade: I think they do. Monta Ellis has been a hard-working, committed defender this year, and the trio of him, PG, and Hill create a lot of turnovers. They are just long and all over the place, particularly when Paul George really digs in and focuses. I don’t think that will be that big of an issue, as Solomon Hill, while a limited player overall, is a good one-on-one defender as well. He will see some time on DeRozan.
Blake Murphy: Myles Turner was one of my favorite prospects entering the draft and he hasn’t disappointed. He’s had the rookie ups and downs of course, and that may make him a risk in the playoff pressure cooker. How big a role is he going to play?
Jared Wade: He’s a big X factor. He missed six weeks with a broken thumb, so it took him awhile to get into a rhythm when he first got on the court. But after about 10 games looking like a rookie, it all clicked. He was scoring in the 20s and showing some veteran savvy for protecting the rim. His jumper was especially lethal.
He cooled off eventually, however, and has struggled with his confidence since. He’s probably overly hard on himself and it shows at times as he rushes things and, especially, gets flustered on defense when he has to chase quicker players.
But he is a dynamic scorer and has shown good chemistry with Ian Mahinmi. If he can have a few good shooting games and draw the defense out of the paint, it will open up a lot of space for guys like Monta and PG to attack more easily. And the Pacers really need that if they have any hope at an upset.
Ian Levy: As a Pacers fan, I’m hoping a big one. His shooting ability opens driving lanes, with or without Ian Mahinmi playing beside him. His rim defense will also, theoretically, be a big deterrent for DeRozan and Lowry attacking the rim. Or he could rookie his way out of the rotation with fouls and missed jumpers. Rookies are variance.
Blake Murphy: No Eastern Conference playoff team takes as many mid-range shots as the Pacers, even though the Pacers only shoot 38.2 percent on those shots. What gives?
(Courtesy: Austin Clemens)
Ian Levy: Paul George. Monta Ellis. Those guys are so confident in their mid-range games they are more than happy to take what the defense gives them. Some nights those shots go in and they look unbeatable. Over the span of a playoff series, it would probably be better if they could knock it off.
Jared Wade: Frank Vogel isn’t a very good offensive coach. And Paul George grew up watching Kobe. Throw in Monta Ellis and Myles Turner, and there ya go.
Blake Murphy: Are there any major pet plays Raptors fans should keep an eye out for from the Pacers? I know they run a lot of stuff for George that’s similar to what the Raptors run for DeRozan, but I’m sure there are plenty of wrinkles we’ll find out about.
Jared Wade: The Vogel Weave is a fan favorite that disappeared when Lance Stephenson did, but has made a few cameos at end of quarters this year. The Hammer action in the corner has become more prominent over the second half of the year, and Vogel loves him some Elevator Doors out of timeouts.
Ian Levy: You’re right on, there will be lots of similarities to how the Raptors use DeRozan. The Pacers like to run pin-down screens for George, let him catch the ball on the move, especially around the elbows. Like DeRozan, all of that is most effective when George uses those opportunities to attack and keep pressure on the defense.
Blake Murphy: Looking at the entire series, whether it’s Xs & Os or numbers or lineup options or whaetver, what do you see as the Pacers’ biggest strength in this series? Their biggest weakness?
(Courtesy: Nylon Calculus)
Ian Levy: George’s defense seems like a wild card. Scheme, Mahinmi, and George Hill should be able to at least moderate what Lowry does. If George devoted himself to taking DeRozan out of the series, things might get closer to an even playing field. However, that requires George letting off throttle on offense and trusting Ellis, Hill and Lawson to pick up more of the load. If George just tries to outscore DeRozan, the Pacers are probably in trouble.
Jared Wade: At their best, the Pacers have a lot of talent. It’s boring talent, so nobody really talks about it, but from George Hill to C.J. Miles to Rodney Stuckey, they have lots of players who can score 10 in a quarter or finish with 25 points. It’s a veteran team that, while inexplicably shaky late in games this year, has a ton of experience.
They are frontrunners and can look really, really good at times when they get rolling. It will be hard to make that happen much against a team as solid as Toronto, and they are prone to collapses and long scoring droughts, but if they can steal a game in Canada and start hitting shots, that confidence could last for a week or two and really scare Raptors fans.
They really should be a 4-5 seed, so the talent is there, and the defense can keep them close even during the offensive lulls.
Blake Murphy: Call it.
Jared Wade: Heads.
(Fine … dinosaur people.)
Ian Levy: Raptors in six.
/single tear
