…damn.
Friday night felt like Christmas Eve when I was a kid. The excitement was building for a special day, and a present was waiting to be unwrapped. The start of the NBA Playoffs never fails to get me excited, and this is doubly so when it comes to the Raptors being involved.
Then the actual game happened. If I wasn’t hanging out with a friend and his two small children, I don’t think I would have been able to sit down. My heart felt like it was pounding, and my brain was on overdrive with anticipation of what was to come.
It took under three hours to feel like I was in a fog. What a disappointment. 38 percent from the floor, 21.1 percent from three, and just 68.4 percent from free throw line…for perspective, the Raptors shot just 1 percent higher from the field in game one than they did from three on the entirety of the regular season.
It was rainy and cold here in Manitoba and it seemed fully appropriate. My fog left me incredibly thankful that I wasn’t responsible for yesterday’s quick react, and was instead allowed to take as many hours as I needed to reflect before putting any words to figurative paper.
And here is what I talked myself into: the Raptors played as poorly as possible, Paul George was absolutely dominant, and game one was roughly the worst case scenario…and the Raptors still had it within 3 points with four minutes remaining.
Despite how poorly the Raptors played, they still had a chance to win.
And yes, credit to the Indiana Pacers. Toronto didn’t deserve to win based on how they played, and the Pacers jumped at the opportunity to steal home court advantage. But how much of the Raptors’ struggles were caused by Indiana, and how much of it was self-inflicted?
Did Indiana cause the Raptors to shoot 38 percent from the field? Or did Toronto simply suck?
According to NBA.com/Stats, of shots taken from 10 feet and beyond, 26.6 percent of Toronto’s Game 1 shots were considered open (no defender within 4-6 feet) or wide open (no defender within 6+ feet), which is markedly lower than their season average of 34.4 percent.
The big difference though is the shooting percentages on these shots. On open or wide open shots taken from 10+ feet away from the basket during the regular season, the Raptors shot 39.5 percent. Yesterday saw Toronto shoot just 23.8 percent on the same such shots.
Simply shooting their season average on open/wide open shots, and their season average from the free throw line, the Raptors are looking at an extra 6 points. Add in a few of Jonas’ tip-backs and the Raptors numbers scoring looks drastically different.
Open shots, free throw shooting, and a few rim-outs on tip shots from Valanciunas (4-of-14), and we could presently be looking at a series lead for Toronto.
With that said, the NBA is a highly nuanced game and these stats certainly don’t tell the full picture. It’s far too simplistic to say that hitting open shots and free throws would have made all the difference.
But, you know what? It’s a damn good place to start…
