The Toronto Raptors will look to rebound on Monday when they host the Indiana Pacers for Game 2 of their opening round playoff series. The game goes at 7 p.m. (not their usual 7:30 start time) on TSN 1/3/4/5, Sportsnet Radio, and NBA TV in the U.S.
They need to rebound. They really don’t have much choice after dropping a disappointing Game 1 loss at the Air Canada Centre on Saturday, a defeat that seems to have rocked the confidence of a chunk of the fanbase, if not the team itself.
“Stick with us,” Patrick Patterson pleaded Sunday, and there’s little doubt the fans will. The ACC has long had a reputation as a tough place to play, and so long as the expectant energy from Game 1 can stay on the right side of the line between nervous and anxious, the Raptors will have their substantial home court behind them. That didn’t matter Saturday, but every edge matters in a short playoff series, especially when backs are against the wall, and the Raptors have coughed up this edge from a series perspective – they now have to win in Indiana at least once.
Before we go ahead with the Game 2 preview, let’s take a look back at that Rafael Araujo of a Game 1.
What happened in Game 1
Pacers 100, Raptors 90 | Box Score | Quick Reaction | Podcast
Key to the game: Paul George went off in the second half (George shooting breakdown), playing like the best player on the floor as DeMar DeRozan (DeRozan shooting breakdown) and Kyle Lowry (Lowry shooting breakdown) struggled.
Recap: The Raptors are better than the Pacers, but they have to play like it, and now they’re battling the demons of years past, too.
Turning point: Jonas Valanciunas picked up a weak third foul in the second quarter, sending him to the bench. He picks up a sixth quickly, too, limiting him to 21 minutes in which he dominated the glass in record fashion.
Reason for pessimism: The Raptors had little answer for George. DeRozan forced him into difficult shots, but George hit them, and the Raptors couldn’t shake him out of his comfort zone. Tasking DeRozan with the George assignment is a nice challenge for one of their stars, but it’s an inefficient use Toronto might be able to win the series if George is the best player, but the gap has to be smaller. And some in the Pacers camp don’t seem to agree with my assertion that the Pacers played what was maybe an 80th-percentile game for them
Reason for optimism: DeRozan and Lowry shot a combined 8-of-32, Lowry went 1-of-4 on uncontested threes, Valanciunas was 0-of-7 when shooting after an offensive rebound, and a 77.7-percent free-throw shooting team shot 68.4 percent at the line. That all seems unsustainable. Like, Chinese-carbon-emissions unsustainable.
Revising prediction: Raptors in five now becomes Raptors in seven, not because the Pacers suddenly got that much better, but because Raptors in five or six would now require two wins on the road, which is asking a lot.
For more on Game 1, check out my appearance on CTV News from Sunday. I answered way too long to her questions and spent the day anxious about doing an OK but long-winded job. Like the Raptors, I can only hope to bounce back and be better if given the chance again.
What’s happened since
Head coach Dwane Casey remains confident that it was just one bad game (Casey post-game quotes) but is promising rotation changes (Casey practice quotes). Other than shutting down social media, DeRozan and Lowry don’t sound like they’re changing much (post-game quotes from them), and they don’t seem the least bit rattled by being on the wrong end of the initial salvo.
This is good. It might be posturing, but the Raptors emphasized mental toughness and experience this offseason, and now’s the time for all of that to manifest. The Raptors can’t afford to wilt, stumble, or let an ounce of doubt creep in. Whether or not the series winds up playing out this way, the Raptors went 56-26, were one of the league’s five or six best teams, and beat good teams all year long, and they should be thinking as such.
Frank Vogel, meanwhile, seemed like the coolest cucumber in wherever it is people store cucumbers (hot take: cucumbers are trash) after the game. He didn’t use the word “comfortable,” but you could easily paraphrase his post-game comments as such. He made it seem as if the Pacers plan to come out and play the exact same way in Game 2, and how could you blame them? The underdog just punched Goliath’s Homeboy in the mouth on his own turf, and given Casey’s reputation for being slow to adjust, the Pacers have no reason to do things differently until it stops working.
What the Raptors need to change
I’ll have something more in-depth on a few pieces of “low-hanging fruit” with respect to Casey’s rotations in a little bit. His choices were erratic and unfamiliar and while part of that may have been him searching for answers, some of it was also the unfortunate reality of working a 10th guy back into what’s been a solid nine-man rotation all year long. But again, more on those in a bit. For now, here are some higher level (#HighLevel) notes.
Put DeMarre Carroll on George: This seems obvious given what Carroll was brought in (and paid handsomely) to do, but he didn’t get the bulk of the Game 1 assignment. He’s still limited to 20 minutes – he’s hoping for a bump to 30 for Monday – and that complicates matters. But if Carroll’s on the floor, it better be because George is, too. Carroll played five minutes with George off the floor, and that’s a poor use of assets (as is the Raptors’ five-man bench unit, which will die, anyway, with Casey’s shortened rotaiton).
Free DeRozan up: This follows from the point above, but getting DeRozan off of George should help DeRozan a lot offensively, lessening his overall workload. The Raptors also need to take advantage of George’s rest periods – George sat for 10:27, and DeRozan was on the floor for a minute of that, taking zero field-goal attempts. Solomon Hill and C.J. Miles are solid defenders who will make life tough for DeRozan, but it’s inexcusable to tether DeRozan to George like that – that’s a move Vogel should be making, his hand forced by Casey, not something Casey willingly concedes. This isn’t about DeRozan playing poorly – his effort on George was solid and he missed some shots he normally makes – it’s about putting him in the best position to succeed. Playing him with Patterson more would help, too.
My dude Michael Pina had a great breakdown of DeRozan’s game and how to get him going for RealGM.
Trim the fat: Casey said he’ll shorten the rotation to nine, and if he’s running a meritocracy, Terrence Ross is out. I’ve caped for Luis Scola to be moved to the bench all year, but Scola was decent Saturday and the Pacers’ starting group is a much better matchup for him than their second unit, so if he’s going to play, it makes some sense to keep him with the starters. Ross, meanwhile, had the worst game of any role-playing Raptor, continuing his three-year trend of disappearing in the playoffs. I’m not sure if that’s fair to Ross, who has played better since Dec. 7 than he ever did the last two years, but he’s also the most reasonable to come out – Norman Powell outplayed him, was a more keyed-in defender, and the spacing Ross provides that’s been so important all year might matter a little less if Carroll and Patrick Patterson are both still coming off the bench (if Carroll starts, things get a little trickier with Ross-Powell).
Stop turning the damn ball over: Easier said than done, and it’s related to the poor nights for Lowry and DeRozan, but protecting the ball can’t be stressed enough. The Pacers live off of that.
What the Raptors need to keep doing
Feed Valanciunas: He got a few weak whistles and struggled around the rim, but he was an enormous game-changer despite that. Ian Mahinmi and Myles Turner are good defenders who both had quality games, but Valanciunas is the best big man in this series, and the Raptors should continue to look to him as such. Catching on the dive, improvised post-ups, mid-range face-ups to pull Mahinmi out of the paint some, whatever they have to do.
Game 2 updates
There are no injuries to report on for either side. That’s awesome! Injuries suck. It’s really just Carroll’s minutes load to keep an eye on. That means the rotations should be similar, too.
Raptors projected rotation
PG: Lowry, Joseph
SG: Powell, (Ross)
SF: DeRozan, Carroll
PF: Scola, Patterson
C: Valanciunas, Biyombo
Something tells me Casey is going to try shortening the rotation before changing the starters, but I hope I’m wrong. A swap of Powell-Carroll would be justified from a strategic standpoint, and a swap at the four has long made sense. If he wanted to go with the team’s best lineup, Carroll and Patterson would both start, but then the second unit would be a little thing on spacing when there aren’t two point guards on the floor, so I’m not sure Casey will go that far.
Pacers projected rotation
PG: G. Hill, Lawson
SG: Ellis, Stuckey
SF: George
PF: Allen, S. Hill
C: Mahinmi, Turner
Vogel has one small tough decision to make as it pertains to Ty Lawson, who was ineffective Saturday. He’d probably prefer to keep his rotation at nine, too – Jordan Hill wouldn’t have played without Mahinmi’s foul trouble – and Ellis and Stuckey can both handle short-minute work at the one. It costs the Pacers some juice in transition, though, a key part of their gameplan for Toronto.
The line
As of this writing (10:30 Sunday at a Tim’s because my new place doesn’t have internet yet), the Raptors are seven-point favorites. They were 6-6.5-point favorites in Game 1, so this is pretty interesting. Essentially, oddsmakers are holding steady on their initial beliefs about this series, with a line that suggests the Raptors are the better team, even on neutral court. So, if anyone needed a “wisdom of crowds” or “expert” confidence boost, there you go.
I’ll be at shootaround later, so check back for news and notes.
