With the series tied at one game each the Toronto Raptors hit the road for the next 2 games in Indianapolis. By virtue of winning Game 2, the Raptors have removed the proverbial monkey that sat squarely on their backs for the previous 7 playoff games
While the Fieldhouse is a tough arena with a knowledgeable fan base, Toronto finished the regular season with the most road victories in history (24-17), and just 2 fewer wins than the Pacers had at home (26-15). Further, a certain Raptors All-Star shooting guard may welcome a hostile site where he can finally relax and play without the weighty burden he’s so clearly been carrying through the first two home games.
DeRozan Response:
In fairness to DeMar DeRozan the Pacers defensive game plan has been designed with him at the top of their priority list. Paul George is a lengthy defender who arguably falls in the same category as Kawhi Leonard and Jimmy Butler as the Association’s top 2-way players. So far DeRozan has contributed to his poor performance by forcing his offense and allowed the lack of whistles to clearly effect his choices. That said, if there is one quality DeRozan has consistently demonstrated in his tenure in the 6ix it’s his work ethic. To wit, following the victory Monday he was spotted clad in work out gear headed to the practice court to put up shots. He’s also been spending hours with assistant coach, Rex Kalamian sifting through game film to find a strategy to counteract the Pacers defense (as per Mike Ganter, Toronto Sun).
DeRozan may already have figured a few things out given the two shots he scored in quick succession to start the third quarter in Game 2. Both came with a more decisive action and were taken without over handling the ball. Taking a page from Kyle Lowry’s improvements in Game 2, he should also look to be more of a facilitator. I’ve noticed DeMar hasn’t been moving like he typically does without the ball. Logically if he passes the ball quicker and runs to an open space it should result in the ball coming back to him or if he draws multiple defenders with him it will afford a wide open look for a teammate.
Duane Casey mentioned in the post game presser DeRozan has tended to start slowly and this bears weight as Game 3 in each of last two playoff series boasted his best stat line:
Valanciunas Dominance:
This may all be a moot point if the Pacers make adjustments to deal with the Raptors behemoth Jonas Valanciunas who has owned the Pacers front court. Heading into the series the starting center was pegged as a clear advantage for the Raptors. Yet, JV’s absolute dominance has arguably exceeded those expectations.
I won’t reinvent the wheel as Blake did a stellar job of suggesting how the Pacers could adjust to address Valanciunas. If the Pacers send more bodies at J.V. it opens driving lanes for Lowry and DeRozan. Or if they choose to play small the Raptors have demonstrated their small ball line-up is not only on par, but comes with numerous substitution options.
Pacers Adjustments:
Charles Barkley and Shaq who picked the Raptors initially have shifted their endorsement to Indiana given Lowry and DeRozan’s lack of production and Paul George’s sentiments of letting one get away. Clearly they have only been reading box scores and not watching the actual games. If they had, they would know JV is just one of the major problems facing Frank Vogel as he adjusts for Game 3.
If Valanciunas was the positional advantage heading into the series, clearly the overall advantage was the Raptors depth and versatility. Frank Vogel is an excellent coach, but he can only do so much with the personnel at his disposal.
Here’s just a few things Vogel has to be concerned with:
Raptors Bench:
Comparing the teams’ bench production again showcases Toronto’s depth and versatility. Aside from one additional assist and block the Raptors own every other statistical category. Further, these statistical advantages illustrate the defensive depth of Toronto’s reserve unit. Cory Joseph (17ppg) leads all playoff reserves in scoring while Patrick Patterson and Bismack Biyombo have delivered on the boards, added scoring and provided rim protection.
Rebounds:
Though the Pacers were a decent rebounding team in the regular season grabbing 44.2 rebounds per game they have dropped to 35.5 per game in the series (-8.7 per game). In contrast the Raptors who grabbed 43.4 rpg have increased their output to 48.0 rpg (+4.6). The offensive glass is paying huge dividends for Toronto as they’ve out rebounded the Pacers 32-15.
Second Chance Points:
Toronto is +21 in second chance scoring in the series.
Points in the Paint:
The Raptors have outscored Indy in the paint 88-56 giving them a positive +32 in this area of the court.
Raptors Front Court Trio:
The work of Valanciunas is a big reason why the Raptors lead the above 3 categories, but his front court cohorts Patterson and Biyombo offer Vogel additional headaches as NBA.com highlights:
ICYMI: Zarar provided a great series showcasing Game 2 highlights of Patterson, Powell and Joseph
JV Adjustments Awaken Sleeping Dogs:
Frank Vogel has to be concerned any adjustment he makes to deal with slowing Valanciunas doesn’t result in losses elsewhere. Once either or both of Lowry and DeRozan break through they’ll be much more difficult to stop moving forward.
Raptors Adjustments:
The obvious is getting DeRozan going. He’ll need to make better, quicker decisions with the ball, and perhaps Casey might consider playing DeRozan additional minutes when George rests. Stuckey would likely draw the defensive assignment which should allow DeRozan easier scoring opportunities.
Other areas the Raptors will look to either improve or build on Game 2 successes are:
Carroll:
Each game DeMarre Carroll plays he gets closer to game shape and looks less rusty. I’d like to see some offensive plays (even a couple a game) added to allow him to get in the flow. Moreover, Carroll is a willing and able passer, so if he connects on a few shots early it will force Indy into not slacking off him onto Lowry and DeRozan.
Perimeter Scoring:
In season, the Raptors ranked fifth in three-point scoring, shooting 37%. To this point in the series they are shooting 24.3%. Much of this could be attributed to Lowry, though Powell missed on most of his attempts (1 of 4) and Ross leaving the game just as he was heating up also hurt. Though Indy’s defense was partially responsible it was more a factor of rushed shots since many were wide open looks.
Perimeter Defense:
Though the Raptors ranked 29th in this area at season end, they had a solid April posting the tenth best perimeter defense. Game 1 of the series the Raptors allowed Indy to shoot 52.4% (11 of 21) with George and Ellis accounting for 7 of the Pacers 11 three point makes. In Game 2 with more emphasis on running the shooters off the line the Pacers shot 20% (4 of 20). They’ll need to replicate that effort in Indy.
Turnovers:
Indiana love to get out in transition, so keeping the turnovers to a minimum is key. Game 1 the 19 turnovers led to 25 points (or 25% of the Pacers score) whereas Game 2 the Raptors were more conscious of ball protection
Transition Defense:
The Pacers are winning the fast break point column averaging 15 points per game in the series. Ellis specifically benefits in the open court. The success Lowry, Joseph and Powell had defending Indy to close out Game 2 offers some answers to carry forward. Though the Raptors improved their perimeter defense this has to be an emphasis of their defensive adjustments.
More Powell on George:
The fourth quarter unit of Joseph, Lowry, Powell, Patterson and one of Biyombo or Valanciunas was exceptional. Powell replaced Ross in this bench heavy line-up which has succeeded all season playing with DeRozan and slightly more favorable with Lowry. If you watched Zarar’s highlight video (linked above) you’ll see why Powell has so many excited beyond what occurs this post season. Even the officials seem to respect his game as he seldom draws ticky tack fouls. Case in point, in just under 39 minutes he’s only picked up 3 personal fouls. During the Game 2, fourth quarter, Powell was used predominantly on George who scored only 4 points, while Indiana shot just 38.9% from the field.
What makes Powell special defensively is his ability to guard a much taller player like George given his reach and be equally adept at guarding a player like Ellis who he stayed glued to despite having to run through numerous screens. He is aggressive without reaching and moves his feet to stay in front of his opponent. He’s making it difficult for whoever he guards to score, but he’s also having an effect at limiting their ability to pass. With all due respect to JV (who has been magnificent) if when his shot starts falling he could end up being the x-factor in this series (and possibly throughout the post season).
Walking Wounded:
Raptors:
- Terrence Ross – head, will need to pass the concussion protocol as per Blake’s update he’ll likely be a game time decision (both rotoworld and cbs list him as questionable)
- Notably Duane Casey indicated James Johnson is feeling better, and he’s had success versus George this season. If Ross can’t go don’t be surprised if Johnson gets some spot duty (especially if Casey decides to get DeRozan some run when George rests).
Pacers:
- Ian Mainmi – back, left game two with back soreness but says he’ll play tonight. He’s listed as a game time decision on the sites.
- Monta Ellis – personal? knee? – this one comes out of the blue with CBS saying personal whereas rotoworld also listed his knee as a reason. If this isn’t a simple error on Rotoworld and Ellis’ knee is injured the Raptors just got a huge shot in the arm.
Raptors projected rotation
PG: Lowry, Joseph
SG:DeRozan Powell,
SF: Carroll, (Ross)
PF: Scola, Patterson
C: Valanciunas, Biyombo
Pacers projected rotation
PG: G. Hill, Lawson
SG: (Ellis), Stuckey (it’s Stuckey’s birthday today)
SF: George, Miles
PF: Allen, S. Hill
C: (Mahinmi), Turner
The Line:
The odds makers have the Raptors as 1.5 favorites with an over under of 193.5 points and early action slightly favoring Indiana. Home teams generally get a 3 point head start, so this continues the trend of Toronto being viewed as the stronger team.
In Closing:
Toronto broke records all season by playing consistently and relying on their team chemistry. Through the first 2 games of this series they have yet to score less than 20 points in any one quarter, whereas they’ve held Indy under 20 points in 3 of the 8 quarters. Considering they’ve done this without DeRozan at his best, Lowry yet to explode from the perimeter and feeling the tension of getting that first win out of the way speaks volumes.
Obviously I’m invested as a fan of the team, so removing my personal desires for their success is difficult, but there are two logical facts I keep returning to:
One: Paul George is tasked with being the best player on both sides of the court which will take a toll the longer the series goes. If he has an off night who on the Pacers can step in to offset his role on either end?
Two: With the Raptors depth and versatility at every position they can counter any move Vogel attempts.
Over the course of a 7-game series those two factors won’t change. So far the Pacers have been able to play freely without any pressure. That changes tonight in front of their home crowd. If the Raptors capitalize by taking the first game that pressure amps up with Indy being in a veritable must win scenario prior to the series shifting back to Toronto.
With DeRozan’s Game 3 history plus Lowry and company due for a breakout on the perimeter my gut (and, yes my heart) says Raptors take care of business.
Check back prior to tip for Blake’s pregame news and notes.
