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Playoff Mailbag: DeRozan’s present and future, Powell, Bullet Club, and more

Kind of all over the place in this one.

With back-to-back days off, we’re back for the usual #RRMailbag. This will be the first mailbag of the postseason, and depending on how it goes, we might just ditch it for the rest of the playoffs with how many days off there are. If you want to catch up on all the previous mailbags, you can find them here.

Before we go ahead: We’ve started a Patreon page at patreon.com/RaptorsRepublic. If you appreciate the content we produce, want to support RR, and have the means to do so, any contribution is greatly appreciated and will help us continue to do what we do (and try to do even more).

Alright, let’s get this money.

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Raptors playoff questions

Game-planning is certainly a part of it, and Frank Vogel’s a terrific defensive coach. The reality is that Paul George is a custom-built Demar DeRozan-stopper, and the Pacers have good help all around him. They’ve also been disciplined with their hands in the paint. Indiana is doing a nice job.

At the same time, DeRozan’s had two bad games. He’s missed some shots he normally hits and finished far worse around the rim than he usually does, even against traffic. He’s scored on George in the past, like he’s scored on Kawhi Leonard, Jimmy Butler, and so on. I think people are writing DeRozan off for the series a little too early. If he gets a little more decisive catching and shooting around the elbows off of his pindowns and shifts his focus even just a shade toward facilitating, I think he’ll grow a bit more comfortable, or at least be able to exploit the specifics of how Indiana’s defending.

Sometimes elite defenses lock elite scorers down. I doubt it happens five times in a row.

So, this is the natural question to follow. The guy who puts these in order is a smart dude. DeRozan’s probably going to get going at some point, but even if he doesn’t, the Raptors might be able to take this series. Going in, I didn’t think they need 20 a night from DeRozan, so long as Kyle Lowry had a strong series and some of the secondary players stepped up. Jonas Valanciunas has been big, Patrick Patterson has played really well, Cory Joseph’s been awesome. The Raptors got what they need to win a DeRozan-less game in Game 2, and they have the depth and defensive chops to get by while DeRozan fights through it. It’s just way more difficult.

Not only is this not a question, it doesn’t really make sense. Lowry’s shooting struggles extended into the end of the regular season, and DeRozan’s up opposite George. Also, isn’t the criticism against the Raptors that they’re not creative enough offensively? The Raptors aren’t running “plays they have not ran all year,” they’re running their stuff and adding wrinkles because of the benefit (and threat) of advanced defensive scouting. That’s what you do in the playoffs – if the Raptors ran exactly what they ran in the season with no tweaks or counters, the Pacers would have been even better defensively, and I’d be fielding questions on why Dwane Casey didn’t have anything ready for the playoffs.

This is a tough one, and it was the impetus for a deep-dive I did into Jonas Valanciunas’ offensive development a while back. Basically, Valanciunas’ growth is more about versatility than volume, because the reality of the roster is that they’re going to be a guard-heavy, drive-oriented attack. It’s nothing Valanciunas isn’t doing, and this question is really more about the Raptors than the big man. Zach Lowe recently wrote that “Valanciunas’ level of involvement on offense is a divisive issue within the organization,” and it’s easy to understand why – he’s a high-efficiency scorer who few big men can handle in the post, but the way a traditional big man scores is antithetical to the Raptors’ core offensive identity.

Looking just at Valanciunas, the next step for him is to continue to improve as a passer and decision-maker, particularly when help comes on the dive or a double comes in the post. He’s getting better, but I’d guess the Raptors would worry about the potential for turnovers in crucial situations. So long as he’s drawing defensive attention, though, that opens things up for the ball-handlers, so he’s providing a pretty big value even when it’s no longer his turn to score.

Good timing on this question, as it came just before I posted this article on potential adjustments the Pacers might make. So check that out. In short, the Pacers can accept the rebounding disadvantage and go small, hoping to get Valanciunas into foul trouble with rangier bigs and by fronting the post, getting into his hands on the catch, or send weakside help on the diver, a very un-Vogel thing to do but one that lets the Pacers continue to pressure the ball-handler and is entirely doable when Luis Scola’s on the floor. But they might not change anything and just trust their guys to do a better job, too.

This is the question that follows from the last two. If the Pacers send a third man at pick-and-rolls, the onus falls on Valanciunas to be able to make passes right off the catch. He’s getting better at that, even when taking a dribble, but if the Pacers make that shift, they’re probably going to be hyper-aggressive forcing him to make decisions quickly. I wouldn’t rule out the “easy buckets,” because they don’t have the personnel to keep him off the glass, and their offense thrives pushing it back the other way, not collapsing to their own rim.

The big counter to make if the Pacers use this approach is to play Patrick Patterson more, something they should be doing, anyway. Patterson’s shooting makes helping off the weakside a more difficult proposition, as teams respect Patterson’s shooting far more than that of Scola, who Indiana has shown they’re happy to let beat them from long-range. Patterson should be starting, anyway, but here’s another reason why.

I gave a minor update on this from practice yesterday, but basically, there’s nothing new. He’s still not all the way back, but any swelling is expected and manageable, so in terms of continuing to play, he’s fine. It’s just kind of a tough spot for him and the team – ideally, a player doesn’t work his way back in a playoff series, but they need to keep giving him minutes, even at less than 100 percent effectiveness, so that he’s in a better place later on in the series.

I talked a little bit about this today with the news that Terrence Ross is available for Game 3. I think Casey sticks with the awkward 10-man rotation Thursday, because even though Powell’s outplayed Ross so far, Ross’ shooting is so important to what some of the Raptors’ best five-man units do. Personally, I’d be starting Powell and Patterson, with Carroll and Ross off the bench, and Scola on the fringes of the rotation. The Raptors are so good going smaller.

Random Raptors stuff

This is a tough one, but I think you have to go with this year’s based on depth. Morris Peterson and Dell Curry give you some nice shooting, and Jerome Williams and Keon Clark are about as good as a backup frontcourt duo as you could hope for, but this bench really didn’t have anyone to run the offense (Chris Childs wound up starting). The big question here is whether Williams would have focused on a 3-point shot in today’s NBA – he shot 40.9 percent from outside of 16 feet that season but only had one career three. If he’s a stretch-four and you swap Peterson and Childs back the way they were, it’s close. At the same time, Childs is persona non grata in these parts.

I had braces before, too. This is something I might need to add to my collection of “Blake asks athletes random shit that has nothing to do with their sport.”

Last I talked to him, he doesn’t have a car. But he did that Ford spot recently, so maybe he’ll stay on-brand with them when he eventually pulls the trigger? (I know that’s not the Q, but see below.)

The situation isn’t at all the same as the Lou Williams one. Williams was a free piece, basically, he didn’t fit with what the Raptors wanted their identity to be, and he priced himself out of their range (though they didn’t make an offer, anyway).

In DeRozan’s case, he fits with what the Raptors do because they’ve built their offensive identity around him, in large part. I definitely get this line of questioning, though – this would be three first-round exits in a row and a fair amount of evidence that this core tops out at this level as a ceiling. At the same time, the Raptors have seven years of intimate data on DeRozan, and I’d be surprised Masai Ujiri lets his decision be colored by something as narrow as “out in the first round again.” I doubt anything that’s happening right now is all that surprising to Ujiri, and he’s not going to lock himself in to a decision or a line of thinking based on a small handful of games, however high the leverage.

There’s going to be a lot that goes into the complicated DeRozan decision, no matter where the Raptors wind up in the playoffs.

The last mailbag I did was almost entirely these kind of Powell questions, so I’ll direct you there for answers. In short, Powell is an awesome find and a huge value on his deal, but he’s a quality rotation player and not the kind of guy you start reshaping the franchise around after a six-week stretch. There’s no bigger Powell fan than me. He’s exactly the kind of player you need to uncover for cheap if you want to keep a more expensive core together long-term, and his ridiculously team-friendly deal gives the Raptors a ton of options and flexibility this summer.

/Extremely Jay Pharoah as Stephen A. Smith voice

This hurts me to say this, because I love Toronto. I have hung out there many times. I loved Rob Ford like a brother. I named the CN Tower. Me and Drake have Sushi out in Malibu at Nobu at least once a week. But DeMar DeRozan is leaving that city. DeMar DeRozan is an L.A. kid, he idolized Kobe, the three of us have sleepovers together regularly. DeMar DeRozan is going to follow Kobe as the star of the Lakers. I guarantee it. DeMar DeRozan sent me a Snapchat just now that said “Stephen A. Smith, I tell you this because you’re a close personal friend, I’m going to the Lakers.” I guarantee it.

/Extremely unenthused Blake Murphy voice

DeRozan might leave. We have no idea. I’ve long thought the odds of him staying were 50-50 or better, but his hometown team and the empty shoes of his idol would probably rank as the No. 2 most likely landing spot. And he’s going to have multiple suitors willing to offer him the max. So, we’ll see, but I’d still weight the coin-flip on the side of him returning, and Smith’s comments do not shift my opinion in the slightest.

Miscellaneous

This is the best mailbag question. Here’s my theory, based on nothing: In the main event of Payback, Karl Anderson and Luke Gallows come out to help A.J. Styles against Roman Reigns. Styles does what he’s been doing, the perfect facial expressions of “what the heck is going on, I didn’t sign off on this.” Obviously, everyone thinks Styles is just playing coy and has been behind it all along. Anderson and Gallows then attack Reigns, getting Styles DQ’d, and lay Reigns out. The whole time, Styles is playing up the plausible deniability. Gallows and Anderson then go for the Too Sweet with Styles, only for Finn Balor to come out of the crowd and attack. Balor, Anderson, and Gallows then beat down Styles and Reigns, ending the pay-per view throwing up the horns in the center of the ring.

I could be way off here. Maybe Styles is the leader, occam’s razor and all. But this is the best way I can think of to keep Styles hot as a babyface, protect Reigns, add layers to the Bullet Club storyline, and debut Balor in the character he needs to be in, the real rock’n’rolla.

I’ve always kind of liked LeBron James for the John Cena comparison, just because they’re both so corny and have legions of haters. The Warriors might be more peak Goldberg at this point, in that it’s impossible to book a scenario in which they lose without an injury angle.

Oh man, too many. Bill Simmons has a whole section of a massive book about NBA What Ifs. I like the DeMarcus Cousins one for the present-day NBA, that’s a good answer. If I’m thinking of a Raptors one, the Ben Uzoh Triple-Double Game and the resultant lottery fallout (with the trickle-down of what happens to Lowry if the Raptors jump into a spot to land Damian Lillard) is my favorite “butterfly effect.” That’s not really a regret, though. NO RAGRETS!

Personally, I don’t apply oil until I’m at roughly a No. 3 length (4mm). Anything shorter and you can just use your facial moisturizer, no problem. Once it hits maybe a No. 6 (9mm), to the point where you can run a comb through it, then I’ll use a balm along with the oil so it stays flat (although that’s new since Badass Beard Care hooked me up).

Once we know the schedule for the second round, I’ll set something up for a birthday+housewarming drop-in.

You’re invited, too, but you have to bring Maddux. Also, I’m close(ish) to a Firkin again, so see you soon.

Difficult realization: I probably won’t be drinking that night (or the night of the RR staff party). I have a half-marathon next Sunday and am easing up on the alcohol a bit right now. I’m lame.

What Sean is talking about, by the way, is the live podcast recording that Raptors HQ and Raptors Republic are doing at Tallboys on Wed. April 27, starting at 7 p.m. It’s free, but space is limited, so book your spot here.


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As a reminder, if you appreciate the content we produce, want to support RR, and have the means to do so, we’ve started a Patreon page at patreon.com/RaptorsRepublic. Any contribution is greatly appreciated and will help us continue to do what we do, and try to do even more.

Scott Suggs had his usual good game and is desperately waiting for a call-up from anyone.

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