A funny thing happens every April when fans fill out their NBA Playoff pools and pundits make their series predictions. Muddied by memories of the regular season, it’s common to make a few selections that in hindsight were so obviously wrong.
In fairness, unless you’ve booked regular sessions with your local soothsayer there are too many intangibles to foresee. That said, all 8 series have completed four games, and some teams have delivered on expectations, such as the 3 teams who have already cemented their semi conference final berths (Cavaliers, Spurs, Thunder).
The east’s middle seeds proved why they fought until game 82 to gain an upper bracket advantage as they’ve showcased Jekyll and Hyde identities in their home versus road personas.
In the past 48 hours injuries to Stephen Curry and Chris Paul altered their respective team’s odds of reaching the finals. (Curry sprained, right MCL – reassessed in 2 weeks, Paul fractured hand, third metacarpal, typically 4-6 weeks). Adding insult to injury Blake Griffin re-aggravated his quad that held him out for several games this season.
I bring all of this up to prove a point. While Toronto prepares for the game 5 tip-off of what is now a best of 3 mini-series they do so with a completely healthy club, a deeper roster and still the prohibitive favorites to win the series.
I understand the angst of fans who recall with great clarity how the past two Raptors post seasons ended. I’m keenly aware DeMar DeRozan, through 4 games has been shut down by Indy, and Kyle Lowry, though more productive in the 2 wins has yet to produce a typical Lowry-esque performance.
Yet, in review of the teams already through to the next round there are several common denominators. Each were top 5 teams, feature roster depth, and perhaps most importantly have valuable post season experience.
Harkening back to a year ago, that post season disappointment sparked DeRozan and Lowry’s decision to reshape their bodies this past summer. And though the franchise is still relatively young, the experience gained in the past 2 post seasons will serve as a valuable conduit to draw upon in the next 3 games.
I posted recently that I feel starting at home can have its disadvantages. Especially with the added pressure to clear a hurdle covered in cobwebs. However, I clarified the deeper the series goes, having home court offers much more than an avid ACC sixth man. The physiological benefit of sleeping at home, being with family and the simple benefit of familiarity can translate into added confidence and calm.
With that lets take a look at the specifics:
Game Specifics:
As per Blake’s article, given the series sweeps by the Spurs and Cavaliers it leaves just 2 games on the NBA docket. That means the Raptors start time moves up to 6PM EST.
TV: TNT, Sportsnet
Radio: TSN Radio, 1050 Toronto
Lessons Learned:
Feed the Big Dog:
Despite Ian Mahinmi’s break out game 4 and the impressive showing by rookie Myles Turner, Jonas Valanciunas remains the best big man on either team. With news Mahinmi was kept out of contact drills in practice the Raptors should return to feeding J.V. early and often (and not forget him). Valanciunas shot 6 for 7 from the field in Game 4 for 16 points begging the question why he didn’t get more touches.
Use the KISS Principle:
Using the KISS principle (keep it simple stupid) the most obvious lessons learned are the team who is the most aggressive from the tip, and maintains that energy without turning over the ball has won. In their losses Toronto turned the ball over 20 and 19 times, in their wins they turned it over 13 and 11 times.
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Stick With the Hot Hand:
In the regular season the Raptors had the fourth best three point shooting percentage (37% tied with Blazers). In 4 games the Raptors three point shooting has sagged to 27.6%. The irony, as Gavin MacPherson’s article brilliantly details is the Pacers are daring Toronto to shoot from beyond the arc as they pack the paint to deter drives, and provide help defense on Valanciunas.
DeMarre Carroll shot 50% from deep in Game 4, and has the best three point percentage 38.9% in the series.
The obvious hot hands in game 4 were Valanciunas and Carroll. Perhaps I’m being too simplistic, but until the Pacers can prove they can stop them, keep running the same plays until they do.
Take Advantage of Your Pluses:
The glass has been owned by the Raptors though Indy had a +3 advantage in game 4 when Toronto focused more on transition defense. The result of that decision meant one of Valanciunas, Biyombo or Patterson were left to compete for the rebound.
The other clear advantage the Raptors have is the sheer number of bodies who can contribute, and the depth of the Raptors bench. Why not take a page out of Brad Steven’s book by starting aggressive defensively, and maintaining that pressure throughout the game. Implementing frequent substitutions prior to players reaching a fatigue stage would do the trick. With the Pacer’s limited depth it presents a problem for their short bench (and/or lack of talent) to match up with that type of intensity. Of note, since the Raptors next game isn’t until Friday, it more likely Casey plays his main guys longer.
Rediscover Offensive Fluidity:
As Blake’s article outlined if any adjustments are made they won’t include changes to their offensive strategy. It worked to garner 56 victories this season, so Casey won’t look to reinvent the wheel. That means DeRozan and Lowry will continue to lead the on court product. Lowry specifically owned up to shooting poorly, and while he’s getting some clean looks he noted the Pacers are rushing him to take the shot sooner. Given Lowry and DeRozan have frequently drawn double teams it seems like there’s an obvious resolution: – – MOVE.
Certainly the Pacers defense has been stellar, but other than the fourth quarter of Game 2 and major portions of Game 3 the Raptors offense has looked hesitant while lacking it’s typical fluidity. Perhaps reintegrating Carroll combined with DeRozan playing slower has thrown off the team’s natural rhythm. That said, when DeRozan was aggressive and made quick decisions he was more successful.
The Raptors are definitely at their best when their defense ignites the offense, and when they move (both the ball and themselves). DeRozan and Lowry can be the catalyst for that movement by initiating both.
Adjust QUICKLY:
Personally I feel Luis Scola offered valuable contributions to the Raptors especially early in the season and in the road victories. The problem is this game is too important to allow Indy any early advantage. So, if Scola can’t hit wide open shots, or be a factor on defense he should be on a short leash. Again, as per Blake’s article, the indication was no starting line-up rotations would occur. This is the post season though, so just like Vogel didn’t broadcast Turner would replace Allen until shortly before game time, I wouldn’t expect Casey to be forthcoming on that front either. Casey isn’t likely to insert Patterson given his reported penchant for coming off the bench. A logical option would be inserting Jason Thompson who is savvy enough to defend, especially considering he’d likely be matched up with the rookie Turner.
Casey also pointed to the pace with which Monta Ellis initiates Indy’s offense as an issue. In the game 4 loss, the Raptors couldn’t find energy, struggled defensively and weren’t cohesive offensively. In a little over 13 minutes Norman Powell scored 10 points, hit 2 of 3 threes, had 3 rebounds, 2 steals and was a team high plus 6. Coinciding with my point for Casey to utilize the Raptors depth, Norman Powell at this stage (in my opinion) has earned extra minutes, especially with his ability to guard multiple positions.
Walking Wounded:
Raptors:
- NONE
Pacers:
- Ian Mahinmi – back, despite a sore lower back the big man played through pain and was the x-factor in game 4. He is listed as questionable for Tuesday. If he can’t go it would put the Pacers in a pickle in terms of their front court depth. As per ESPN he was limited to non-contact practice drills on Monday. If I had to guess, I’d say he plays.
Raptors projected rotation
PG: Lowry, Joseph
SG:DeRozan Powell,
SF: Carroll, Ross
PF: Scola, Patterson, Thompson
C: Valanciunas, Biyombo
Pacers projected rotation
PG: G. Hill, Lawson
SG:Ellis, Stuckey
SF: George, Miles
PF Turner: Allen, S. Hill
C: (Mahinmi),
The Line:
The odds makers continue to favor the Raptors again listing them as 7 point favorites with an over under of 192 points and early action slightly favoring Indiana.
In Closing:
The last time the Raptors lost 2 games in a row was March 23 and 25. Prior to that you have to go back to the bookend games around the All-Star break mid February. If Toronto had one calling card this season it was consistency, and although the playoffs are a different beast the habits a team forms during the regular season tend to carry over into the post season.
As I outlined above the 3 squads now prepping for the second round have commonalities. And, while the Raptors don’t have as many years of post season experience they do factor into all the other categories I mentioned. In fact, taking a lesson from the team they finished just ahead of (Oklahoma City Thunder) could offer a good model to replicate.
Like Toronto, the Thunder have had early exits in the playoffs due to injuries to their star players. They faced a Mavericks squad who like the Pacers couldn’t match OKC’s talent or depth, yet still managed to steal a win on the road. In game 2, stars Kevin Durant shot 7 of 33 (21%)| 2 of 11 (18%) from three and Russell Westbrook shot 8 of 22 (36.3%) | 1 of 6 from 3 (16.6%). Playing with grit and intensity the Mavericks were able to get under Durant’s skin which lead to him being evicted from a game and some technical fouls. In the end the Thunder found a way to win and move forward primarily via their leaders involving the rest of the team and playing aggressively. Granted, Durant and Westbrook are top 5 talents, but it could be argued Toronto’s “others” are on par with the best teams.
Bottom line, Lowry and DeRozan don’t need to be the leading scorers or shoot a high percentage for the Raptors to win, they just need to fulfill their role and be leaders.
Through the first 4 games, each game winner has been dictated by good starts, maintained aggressiveness and low turnovers. Typically a longer series lends itself to shifts with each game taking on a new theme. Though I could argue the logic of DeRozan and Lowry being due for a break-out performance, my sense is the Raptors team is due for a big night from deep.
Check back prior to tip for Blake’s pregame news and notes.
