Analytics have taken the NBA by storm as more and more teams utilize advanced stats to quantify prospect potential.
To suggest analytics is new to the Association isn’t accurate; there is just more detailed data being tracked. Decades ago General Managers and scouts poured over box scores to decipher a player’s production. What has changed (for some franchises) is how much emphasis is placed on analytics versus the old school eye test.
For the upcoming 2016 draft, teams will amalgamate past season and draft combine diagnostics with in person tryouts. Teams like the Raptors and Spurs also place major emphasis on the interview since it offers insight into an individual’s character.
In terms of selecting a draft pick using analytics makes sense. Though, one could argue some franchises should give more credence to how the athlete performs in person and their interview (read: Houston Rockets GM Daryl Morey).
As far as GMs basing trade and free agency decisions solely on analytics, again there are a myriad of other things to consider. For example a strong catch and shoot specialist who can’t create their own shot shouldn’t be expected to replicate their efforts on a team without multiple play makers. Similarly, qualities like leadership, role acceptance, and performance in pressure situations should carry equal weight.
Having said that, a new twist to analytics offers defensive data that won’t change regardless of the system a team runs: hustle stats.
Hustle Stat Definitions:
For the first time in the playoffs the NBA is collecting data specific to seven hustle categories both for teams and individuals.
as per NBA.com:
Screen Assists: Offensive player sets a screen for a teammate that directly leads to a field goal by that teammate
Deflections: Defensive player gets his hand on the ball on a non shot attempt
Loose Balls Recovered: Player gains sole possession of a live ball not in control of either team
Charges Drawn: Defensive player draws a charge
Contested 2-Point Shots: Defensive player closes out and raises a hand to contest a 2-point shot prior to its release
Contested 3-Point Shots: Defensive player closes out and raises a hand to contest a 3-point shot prior to its release
Contested Shots: Defensive player closes out and raises a hand to contest a shot prior to its release
The following charts show where the Raptors and Pacers rate among playoff teams as well as the top performers from each squad.
Team Hustle Stats:
Player Hustle Stats:
Notably the two individuals who’ve been drawing ample dissection regarding their inefficient shooting appear multiple times which speaks to Lowry’s point:
“My job is always the same: to lead my team and help my team win — no matter what it takes.- Lowry”
Obvious Takeaways:
Pacers:
In truth the Pacers success versus the Raptors isn’t exactly coming out of the blue as they played the third best defense on the Raptors this season. Nevertheless there are some areas Indy has improved upon.
To wit, the two obvious upgrades have been on the perimeter and the strategy employed to crowd/hurry Toronto’s backcourt. In season, the Pacers ranked third at defending the 3 point line (33.4%). They’ve improved upon those efforts in the playoffs holding the Raptors to 26.6% who shot the fifth best from the arc in season (37.0%).
Nor is it surprising Paul George appears in 6 of the 7 hustle categories given how he defended DeMar DeRozan, especially in the first 4 games of the series. Logically George will draw the primary defensive assignment on DeRozan again since Indy are in a must win situation. It’s also likely he’ll play more than 41 minutes which could pay dividends if the Raptors can continue to limit the rest of the Pacers offense. Additionally, Norman Powell‘s defense on George in game 5 offered insight to carry forward. By utilizing their depth (Carroll, Ross, DeRozan and Powell) the Raptors could expedite George’s fatigue level.
Despite a bad back Ian Mahinmi rates in 4 categories and the emergence of rookie Myles Turner who finds himself listed in 3 categories is aiding to Indy’s defensive success. Arguably the surprise Pacer appearing in 2 categories is Monta Ellis who is often described as defensively challenged. Again, if Frank Vogel elects to play his starters extended minutes it may not have the desired result since they’ll be tasked with shutting down the Raptors on both ends.
Raptors:
While I couldn’t break down the hustle stats by game the Raptors will have that information at their disposal. Moreover, it’s likely the variances in the data would signify a major difference in wins versus losses.
For example, based on the Raptors success in the final frame of game 5 via solid screen setting their should be emphasis on recreating them in game 6.
Like George, it’s no surprise Bismack Biyombo ranks in 3 categories. His presence in the paint has altered shots and his screens were critical to the comeback in game 5. Given how dominate Jonas Valanciunas began the series his ranking in 4 categories was also expected. Nor was it shocking to find Patrick Patterson ranking in 3 categories despite his rough outing in game 5.
Admittedly I assumed Kyle Lowry would be on the list, but the fact he ranked top 6 or better in 3 categories was a bonus. Arguably the appearance of DeRozan in 3 categories (at 12th or higher) was the true revelation.
Key Stat In Wins/Losses:
While the hustle stats demonstrate the effort areas by the team one typical box score stat jumps off the page: turnovers. In the Raptors 2 losses they averaged 19.5 turnovers. Conversely, in wins they turned the ball over almost half as much: 10.6.
In Closing:
Tonight marks the tenth time this season and sixth time in a row the Raptors will tip-off against the Pacers. At this stage the teams won’t be inserting many new wrinkles, rather they’ll be adjusting to what has occurred throughout the series.
It’s also reasonable to assume the Raptors are due for a break out night behind the arc. A great shooting night from Lowry could be the spark required.
To that end, Kenny Smith pointed out Lowry is being forced to take off balanced shots. He suggested the Raptors maneuver (presumably via screens and more player/ball movement) to get him space to take balanced, in-rhythm shots.
In fact, it appears Lowry is getting advice from multiple sources. Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo’s The Vertical article reports the point guard received suggestions from his former Villanova head coach Jay Wright:
Between Games 5 and 6, Lowry stopped to study a series of text messages that popped into his phone. His college coach, Villanova’s Jay Wright, broke down Lowry’s decisions and plays in the final several minutes of Tuesday night’s victory.
Suffice to say at this stage each team knows what to expect from each other. And, while this data can serve to help the Raptors tweak specific components ultimately game 6 will be decided by simple terms. The team who plays with defensive energy for the majority of 48 minutes without turning over the ball will be the victor.
Both teams enter with pressure unique to them:
Indy will have the added stress in front of their home court to extend the series. Whereas the Raptors seek to win a first round series for the second time in franchise history (first time for a 7-game series).
Here’s to hoping the Raptors depth, an overdue onslaught from the perimeter and Lowry having received just enough intel to have “one of those nights” will finally exorcise that damn monkey.
Go Raptors!
