This is it. The Toronto Raptors have the opportunity to win a playoff series for just the second time in franchise history, and they have the opportunity to win a seven-game series for the first time. It’s the same opportunity that was before them after Game 5 in 2014, a chance they squandered in heartbreaking fashion, but there’s reason to believe this time around will be different. Despite not playing their best basketball for much of the series, the Raptors lead 3-2, a dominant position – the road team with a 3-2 lead closes out 53.4 percent of the time in Game 6, and the team with home-court advantge wins the series 91.9 percent of the time when up 3-2.
They still have to get those one wins, though, which is much easier said than done. Closing out on the road is very difficult, and the Indiana Pacers have their backs against the wall. The game tips off at Bankers Life Fieldhouse at 7:30 p.m. on ESPNews/NBA TV (U.S.) TSN (Canada), and TSN 1050 (Canadian radio).
Before we go ahead with the Game 6 preview, let’s take a look back at Game 5, the craziest comeback in franchise history.
What happened in Game 5
Raptors 102, Pacers 99 | Box Score | Quick Reaction | Podcast
Key to the game: The Raptors continued their terrible play from Game 4, turning in three awful quarters before head coach Dwane Casey went to a lineup he’s never used before, one that brought energy, intensity, and could run with the Pacers. It snuffed out Indiana’s transition game, spaced the floor, and, thanks in part to Frank Vogel, let the Raptors build some momentum. From there, they wouldn’t cede it. They shouldn’t have needed such a comeback, but it was beautiful that they did.
Recap: I mean, can you really read about that comeback too many times?
Turning point: With momentum already growing in Toronto’s favor and Indiana’s lead escaping them, Rodney Stuckey simply falls out of bounds, nearly giving Drake a second torn ACL in the process. He earns a furious clapping from the Global Ambassador, T.J. Ross hit a three on the ensuing possession, and nothing was the same.
Reason for optimism: Kyle Lowry still hasn’t turned in a strong shooting night and is making a big impact regardless, while some tweaks to the offense and additional spacing allowed DeMar DeRozan to finally go off. The Raptors now know they can match speed with the Pacers, snuffing out the pace with their athleticism, yet another style Toronto is capable and comfortable with. Role players are clicking. Casey has proven flexible and willing to make adjustments on the fly. And perhaps the biggest factor: I don’t know how Indiana bounces back, psychologically, from that collapse.
Reason for pessimism: The Raptors outscored the Pacers by 18 in the 6:55 that Paul George sat, and it sounds as if not only might Vogel be done with the bench-heavy units the Raptors have killed in the second and fourth quarters, but that George is ready to go 48 minutes tonight. Toronto’s also played just one really strong quarter over the last two games and have gotten out to a poor start in back-to-back games. And for as much as “the Raptors are winning without their stars being elite” is a positive, it’s also a negative, because things get a lot more difficult if DeRozan’s locked back down or Lowry’s shot remains awry.
Revising prediction: I shifted a “Raptors in five” pick to “Raptors in seven” after the series-opening loss, not because of a fundamental change in how I see the series, but because winning twice on the road in the playoffs is really difficult. I…am having trouble picking against the Raptors in this one. Analytically, the fact that they’ve played pretty poorly and are in Indiana suggests, to me, they’ll need a Game 7, but I can’t shake the Pacers’ vibe from after the Game 5 loss. I really don’t know how you rally up again, unless George is going to do it entirely by himself. Which is possible, but…The 6ix in 6…but I’ll change my mind a dozen times by tip-off.
What’s happened since
A lot of talk, as more or less has to be the case with two days off between games. We’ve had Solomon Hill complain about the Raptors’ style of play, the Raptors repeat a hundred times that they’re treating Game 6 like a Game 7, and Patrick Patterson step up for Canadian fans in a major way in response to Indiana’s lame #WeTheGold shirts.
Quick Q&A with Tim Donahue
In order to help us get the Pacers’ perspective on things, we reached out to Tim Donahue of 8 Points, 9 Seconds, and he was kind enough to oblige.
Blake Murphy: It probably hurts, so I don’t want to pick too aggressively at the scab, but the fourth quarter of Game 5. Can you give us the perspective of what that was like from the other side?
Tim Donahue: For me, it actually fit pretty perfectly with how this entire Pacer season has played out, so it’s not as painful as it might otherwise have been. Like their 45-win season, Indiana’s Game 5 performance was much better than I expected, but it was accomplished in one of the most disappointing, least encouraging ways imaginable. Strong starts gave way to disappointing finishes, and rather than leaving me with the sense they were ahead of schedule, both left me feeling they weren’t really going anywhere. I’ve watched Pacer losses in five different decades. Of all of the horrible Pacer losses, this was the most recent.
Blake Murphy: DeMar DeRozan got going in Game 5 after shooting below 30 percent over the first four games of the series. The Raptors did a little bit to free him up, like playing him when Paul George sat, playing him in a super-small lineup for additional space, and adding wrinkles to a few pet plays, but really, DeRozan’s just a talented enough scorer that he’s tough to keep off the scoreboard five games in a row. What’d you see from DeRozan, and do you think there are any ways the Pacers could adjust to make him uncomfortable again?
Tim Donahue: I don’t really think there’s a lot of need for the Pacers to change things up much in this area. The challenge with DeRozan remains the same – keep him out of the lane and off the line, make him shoot long twos, get the rebound. Basically, that’s the core of Vogel’s defensive philosophy, so my sense is that the Pacers probably view Game 5 as more of an outlier than the other four. The Pacers were third in defensive efficiency this season, seventh last year, and first in the two seasons prior, and that kind of consistent success will keep them from looking to make any drastic changes based on one game. Indiana will be less concerned with the 4-for-6 DDR shooting in the 5 minutes that PG was on the bench (he was only 2-for-8 with PG on the bench in the 1st four games), focusing more on the 13 FTAs he got with PG out there.
Blake Murphy: This question may flow from the last. George is toiling under just a monstrous workload, but the Pacers go to hell whenever he leaves the floor. Why is Frank Vogel so insistent on sitting George Hill and Monta Ellis at the same time? Will George even see the bench in the second half of Game 4?
Tim Donahue: Second question first: PG may play all 24 minutes in the second half, but game situation will dictate that. Vogel’s instinct will be to get him some rest late third/early fourth.
The bench rotation question is stickier. Vogel has taken a great deal of criticism for not keeping one of PG – Monta – George Hill on the floor at all times. The point is not without merit, but I think it overstates the impact Ellis and Hill have without PG on the floor. And Tuesday night, Vogel used PG & GHill for all 12 minutes of the first quarter, and PG & Monta for 11-1/2 minutes of the third. That allowed the Pacers to out score Toronto 15-6 over the last four minutes of the first and 10-4 over the last four minutes of the third.
What he’s counting on is some kind of contribution from Rodney Stuckey and C.J. Miles to get him through the minutes with PG on the bench. Tuesday he got nothing. In seven minutes of rest for PG the other night, the Pacers scored one – O N E – point. Watching the sequence, the Pacers got some decent looks. They just missed all of them. Neither Stuckey nor Miles are stars, but they’re key rotation players who have to make plays for the Pacers to have a chance.
Blake Murphy: If the Raptors commit to playing smaller for long stretches – a four-out around Bismack Biyombo was wildly effective in Game 5 – how do you think the Pacers can counter? They played most of the stretch run small themselves. Do they go even smaller? Do they go smaller earlier? Do they shift back to a bigger look? Or do they just “play better,” which seems reductive but might be the Occam’s razor of a nine-point fourth-quarter?
Tim Donahue: To be honest, the Pacers aren’t really good enough to have counters. They rely heavily on Paul George being the best player on the floor, and the other guys hitting a reasonable number of shots. When those two things happen, it allows their best attribute – their defense – to become a serious, often deciding factor in these games.
The roster is moderately talented, but poorly balanced. That’s why they can play with Cleveland or San Antonio, then get run out of their own gym by Orlando. Solomon Hill’s late emergence as a relatively useful player has allowed them to be more effective, when playing small, but they are still only flexible within a relatively narrow range.
Ultimately, their success and failure rises and falls more how well their individual players perform or execute than on significant tactical or personnel variations. For all of the hubbub over the bench unit, it was the core that failed down the stretch the other night. Vogel brought PG & George Hill back at the 8:36 mark of the fourth with a seven-point lead. That unit – their best – scored two points over the next six minutes. That – plus the 10-shot collar in the linked video above – is just straight up players failing to get the job done.
Blake Murphy: Can the Pacers still win this thing?
Tim Donahue: Yeah, but they probably won’t. Other than a freakish November (11-2), the Pacers simply haven’t strung together a full series worth of good basketball. The problems outline in the answers above draw the picture of a very frustrating basketball team. When watching them, you are certain that they can be good enough to win regularly against playoff teams. You just can’t convince yourself that they will, and you can’t really explain why – even to yourself.
Game 6 updates
Everyone’s healthy on both sides, as far as we know. That’s cool! Ian Mahinmi’s back is still a thing, but he’s been playing fine and had two days off, so he should be good to go.
Raptors projected rotation
PG: Lowry, Joseph
SG: DeRozan, Powell
SF: Carroll, Ross
PF: Patterson
C: Valanciunas, Biyombo
The Raptors have been coy, as always, about what their starting lineup may look like. Casey spoke after Game 5 in a way that made it seem like they’d reverse course, but his tone seemed to change some in the days that followed. Patterson starting is the right call, and it’s telling that Luis Scola didn’t see a minute off the bench, but Casey may opt to go back to what’s comfortable. So long as there’d be a quick hook for the starters, that might be doable, but I’d roll with Patterson and the new, smaller nine-man rotation. The starters were only a -2 in 16 minutes, and the reasons you want to start Patterson were obvious on a few plays early on (the ones on which Jonas Valanciunas wasn’t turning the ball over).
But yeah, consider this an open question, with Jason Thompson looming, too. I understand the desire for some to insert Norman Powell into the starting lineup in a smaller look, which was feasible when Lavoy Allen was starting, but that’s tough when you’d have to put DeRozan on Myles Turner or Ian Mahinmi (DeMarre Carroll would still be on George, and a big reason for starting Powell is Monta Ellis).
Pacers projected rotation
PG: G. Hill, Lawson
SG: Ellis, Stuckey
SF: George, Miles
PF: Turner, S. Hill
C: Mahinmi
The Pacers have stuck with mostly the same rotation since Turner entered the starting lineup, and it seems unlikely to change in terms of personnel. Tim made a good point about the counter side of the lineups without George/Hill/Ellis, and how they provided big edges in earlier chunks, but I’d still expect Vogel to try to limit those groups.
The line
Game 1: Raptors -6.5 (Pacers 100, Raptors 90)
Game 2: Raptors -7 (Raptors 98, Pacers 87)
Game 3: Raptors -1 (Raptors 101, Pacers 85)
Game 4: Raptors -1.5 (Pacers 100, Raptors 83)
Game 5: Raptors -7 (Raptors 102, Pacers 99)
Game 6: Pacers -2
This is the first time in the series that oddsmakers have changed from essentially saying “the Raptors are better by four on neutral court.” This is interesting, to say the least. It could be contextual, with a nod to the difficulty at closing out on the road, but historically it’s about an even bet. It could suggest there’s something we don’t really know going on – a lineup change? Lowry’s elbow? DeRozan’s disappointed in Views? – or it could be the evaluation changing given how the last two games have played out. In any case, it’s the first time Indiana’s been favored all series, which should serve to push your optimism from unrelenting to cautious. The over-under has dropped from 196 to 194.5
Check back just before tip-off for the regular pre-game news and notes. I’ll give a prediction then.
