Gameday: Raptors @ Heat, Game 6, May 13

Let’s be clear out of the gate, this is not just another game day for the Toronto Raptors. It’s game 6 of the Eastern Conference Semi Finals with the Raptors looking to clinch the series for a trip to the EC Finals.

I’ve entered an alternate universe, I swear. Can someone please pinch me, so I know I’m not dreaming! For many this season has offered a cornucopia of delights as the Raptors filled the sparse annuls with records and set new milestones. Tonight though offers the opportunity to high jump over a bar by earning a trip to face the awaiting LeBron James and his Cavaliers.

Closing a series is never easy, especially on the opponents court, but game 5, at least from my perspective offered the first glimpse this post season where the Raptors resembled the in season version of the squad who accomplished so much.

Whether it was the energy of Biyombo, a $1000.00 shoe lace or simply the Raptors depth, the offense was back, and with it the chemistry of the club was on full display at both ends of the court. More importantly they looked like they were enjoying themselves. Smiles replaced the looks of stress on the faces of the Raptors as they finally remembered, the goal is to win, but let’s have fun doing it.

With that, here is the game day preview:

Game Specifics:

The Venue: American Airlines Arena, Miami, FL

The Tip: 8:00 PM EST

TV: ESPN, Sportsnet

Radio:1050 Toronto, Sportsnet The Fan 590 790 The Ticket / S:, WRTO MIX 98.3 FM, , Sirius:207

Walking Wounded:

Not much new to report here: Chris Bosh remains out as do both teams centers: Jonas Valanciunas and Hassan Whiteside.

DeMarre Carroll and Luol Deng who each left game 5 after left wrist injuries were initially both listed as questionable. However it’s logical to assume they’ll both be in the starting line-up. NOTE: rotoworld has Carroll listed as probable.

Note: as per Blake’s practice notes article, Valanciunas is out of his walking boot (good news).

Lowry on banged up Raptors squad #Raptors #NBAPlayoffs #Lowry https://t.co/qnvCns7jje via @NBA
— Tamberlyn's Tip-Off (@TTOTambz) May 13, 2016

In a humorous turn (though I’m sure it’s not funny to him) NBA TV’s The Starters point out the abuse Lowry’s face is taking:

Kyle #Lowry has taken a beating R2 (esp his face) as The Starters point out in the Meme Team #NBA #Raptors https://t.co/qTI6ZlAQKY via @nba
— Tamberlyn's Tip-Off (@TTOTambz) May 13, 2016

Note: video are included in each of the above tweets

History Books:

As noted winning this series would catapult the Raptors into uncharted territory. Looking at history offers the following statistical references:

Another record is set for the Raptors as this is their 13th game of the post season. Their previous foray into the second round (2001) ended in 12 games.
Game 5 winners go on to win the series 82% of the time.
Toronto are 1-4 all time on the road in series clinching opportunities
In their last 8 elimination games the Heat are 7-1. Recalling their opening round versus the Charlotte Hornets they staved off elimination twice.
As per nba.com only 2 East teams have won two games in Miami in the same series since Dwyane Wade was drafted in 2003

Series Stats:

Reversal of Fortunes?

Though players and coaches say each game takes on it’s own theme I’ve noticed some very interesting common themes emerging. Ironically the Raptors main short comings in season have seemingly crossed the court as they now represent the Heat’s main issues. Arguably the three main criticisms of the Raptors in season were a lack of ball movement resulting in low assists, perimeter defense and the knack for reverting to isolation play in crunch time specifically.

Assists: The Raptors finished the season ranked 29th in assists per game (18.7), In fairness this didn’t hurt the Raptors offense as their passes tended to lead to drives and they did finish the season with the 5th ranked offense. Conversely the Heat produced 20.8apg, but saw an increase post All-Star break rising to a high of 23.9apg in March. Through 5 games the Raptors are holding the Heat to 12.8 apg well off their season average and drastically different than how they entered the post season.

Perimeter Defense: With the Raptors intent on blocking the paint their defensive focus on defending the perimeter came later in the season. Though the Raptors finished ranked 29th on perimeter defense (37.3% ) they saw noteworthy improvements as the season progressed climbing to the 10th ranked perimeter defense in the final month of the season (35%).

Again, the Heat entered the post season boasting significant improvements scoring from deep likely the result of their switch to small ball following Chris Bosh’s injury. Post All-Star break the Heat shot 36.5% but even that figure is deceiving as they ranked first in the NBA in March hitting on 40.3% from the perimeter. Toronto has held the Heat to 30.4% in the series. A fact made all the more remarkable when you consider two facts:

Miami entered round 2 shooting 40.6% from deep vs the Hornets
Dwyane Wade is shooting close to 59% in the series having connected on 7 of 12 attempts. The reason this is significant is that matches his total in season makes (7 of 44). This does little to take away from the Raptors are doing defensively as the logical game plan would be to force Wade to shoot from deep.

Isolation Ball: Changing habits is hard as the propensity in panic or pressure situations is to revert to old habits. Though the Raptors still haven’t conquered the beast, it’s fair to say changes this season particularly in terms of their use of screen setting offers ball movement leading to better shots or drives. Game 5 represented the Raptors at their best offensively. They still have work to do closing quarters and end of game scenarios. Having said that, it’s fair to stipulate the Heat are also benefiting from a different whistle at game end especially when Wade has the ball (just ask Kyle Lowry ie. phantom foul call).

The surprise here is the combination of the Heat being brutal from the perimeter (Joe Johnson is 1 for 17: thank you Patrick Patterson!) and the increase of Miami’s isolation plays offering their best scoring options. To wit, nba.com sport VU offers amazing insight into the Heat’s isolation use and the Raptors success with specific focus on Lowry and DeRozan. I won’t reinvent the wheel here:

Miami Isolation Plays:

The Shoe Lace Works:

Defense Prevailing: Suffice to say this series has been a lock down, drag out battle with little variance one game to the next. Through 5 games the Raptors have yet to break the century mark, but the Heat aren’t much better having accomplished that feat once, and it took overtime to do it. For as much as Toronto have had their issues regaining their offensive chemistry, Miami have seemingly had more difficulty as they haven’t scored more than 94 points in regulation. Ultimately it’s the Raptors defense that is leading to wins and with what looked like the team regaining their offensive chemistry in game 5 it should offer confidence heading into tonight.

Note: check out the entire SportVU article as it has more good stuff on Lowry.

It Comes Down To:

With no disrespect to Duane Casey, coming into the series I had Eric Spoelstra with the decided advantage given his experience and title wins. Sure, Casey shouldn’t have gone small in game 4, could have been quicker on some substitutions and worked to resolve closing quarters better. That said I feel like Spoelstra made a big error in the series by not utilizing his youth sooner. The trio of Johnson, Richardson and Winslow have offered more than Miami’s vets, specifically in their comebacks and 2 wins. Had Spoelstra utilized them sooner they could have gained the knowledge that comes from facing the same player repeated which would help them defensively.

Further the vets who he relies on so heavily are beginning to show the signs of wear from having to play every other day. Deng, Wade, Johnson and Dragic have all logged between 37- 39 minutes per game and it’s showing in the stats. Wade scored 20 points in game 5, yet 7 of those came at the stripe. Deng, Dragic and Johnson had a cumulative point total of 28 (just 3 less than Lowry’s output).

Wade showed signs of being tired and you can tell he’s picking and choosing when to amp it up, which has primarily been to close out quarters and at game end. But how much more can he do? He’s been spectacular, but without major offensive production from the veteran starters it’s an uphill battle. And, if any of the 3 do rise to the occasion offensively will they have the legs to stop the Raptors defensively?

For the Raptors, it’s no surprise Captain Lowry is the difference maker. Though his scoring average is well below what he likely desires the bulldog is back. To that end, with 1:15 remaining in game 5 Lowry forced Dragic to turn over the ball, at :54 he hit that deep 3 over Richardson to give the Raptors a 6 point lead, and at :25 (in a similar fall away to the one he had over Wade in game 3) he hit a fall away again over Richardson to once again put Toronto up by 6.

A look back at game 5 showcased (other than the FG%) the very best of Lowry as he lead BOTH teams:

in rebounds (10)
assists (6)
steals (3)
three-pointers (4)
plus-minus PLUS 25

Lowry In the series:

he is tied with DeRozan for second most rebounds (JV is first)
most assists (29), closest to him is Joseph with 15
most three pointers
most steals
second in scoring

Likewise Wade is doing it all, leading the Heat in scoring, rebounding, assists and is tied for most three pointers.

Rotations:

Raptors:
PG: Kyle Lowry, Cory Joseph
SG:DeMar DeRozan Norman Powell,
SF: (DeMarre Carroll), Terrence Ross,
PF: Patrick Patterson, James Johnson, Luis Scola,
C: Bismack Biyombo, Jason Thompson, Lucas Nogueira

Heat:

PG: Goran Dragic, Tyler Johnson
SG: Dwyane Wade, Josh Richardson,
SF: Justise Winslow, Gerald Green
PF: (Luol Deng), Joe Johnson,
C: Josh McRoberts, Udonis Haslem, Amar’e Stoudemire

Suffice to say putting together the above rotational list was an exercise akin to pin the tail on the donkey or jacks. With the series shifted to small ball and the uncertainty of whether Carroll or Deng will play or how many minutes they’ll log it’s anyone’s guess who’ll play where, specifically in the front court. Odds are both Carroll and Deng play since their roles are geared primarily to defense.

The Line:

Game 1: Raptors -4.5 (Heat 102, Raptors 96 in OT)
Game 2: Raptors -5 (Raptors 96, Heat 92 in OT)
Game 3: Heat -5.5 (Raptors 95, Heat 91)
Game 4: Heat -5 (Heat 94, Raptors 87)
Game 5: Raptors -4.5 (Raptors 99, Heat 91)
Game 6:Heat -4

The odds makers continue to vacillate with the favorite always being the home court team. Perhaps it’s a little surprising the shift occurs back to the Heat given the Raptors seem to have rediscovered their offensive game. Then again, it’s an elimination game for the Heat who’ll have that inspiration in mind from the tip. The only shift (and it’s minor) would be the shift from 5.5/5 point edge down to 4 which ultimately means this is a pick-em. The over-under is 189 points, which is also not surprising given the average through 5 games has been 188.6. The Raptors hold the early edge in public opinion. .

Referee Assignments:

Monty McCutchen, Sean Corbin, Marc Davis, and Tom Washington (alternate)

In Closing:

Though the Raptors have two chances to get the job done, they’ve arrived in Miami with their bags packed hoping they’ll be headed to Cleveland after the game and not back to the 6ix. They are also armed with the knowledge learned from round 1 not to take a desperate team lightly when they face elimination. Most importantly they approach tip-off with the recent success of closing out a series that debatably carried a far greater burden for them.

Again, I’ll point to the return of the offensive chemistry in game 5, and the look of joy on the Raptors faces. For most, they have surpassed expectations already. A win tonight and they can do something they haven’t been afforded this entire playoffs: to play freely with the shackles of being the favorite removed.

Further, should they win they won’t have to play the first game at home (in the Raptors case that’s a huge advantage). Best of all, Cleveland doesn’t have the same clutch and grab personnel they dealt with in two hard fought scrappy defensive series. At season start I predicted an Oklahoma City versus Cleveland final and we may well be headed in that direction. I certainly didn’t expect the Raptors to finish second (Bulls – got that one way wrong), nor did I hope for more than a deep run in the second round.

But a win today will result in something this city and nation have long been robbed of – a major sports team making it past a second round playoff series. A win today and everything else is gravy.

My wish for the team is to complete the mission in Miami, so they aren’t burdened with another game 7, and for the team to have fun doing it. This Toronto Raptors team sure has given the fan base one exciting ride this season.

Let’s enjoy this one folks, for as much as tossing that monkey skyward in round 1 was cathartic, reaching a new franchise milestone isn’t just historic it’s the thing 21 years of being a fan in love with this team through thick and thin, sick and sin was made for.

Let’s do it!