With a quick turnaround from Miami for an early Sunday tip, the Toronto Raptors opted to eschew a full formal practice on Saturday. That meant no media availability for players, although head coach Dwane Casey was made available on a conference call.
Here are some quick notes and quotes before you get on with your Saturday evening.
Yes, both centers are out, so Raptors have to adjust small
Both head coaches sounded Friday night as if their centers would be out for Game 7, and both teams confirmed as much Saturday. No Jonas Valanciunas, no Hassan Whiteside, and a resounding yes to a lot of small lineups.
The Heat will once again start Justise Winslow as their de facto center, a dice roll that really paid off for Erik Spoelstra in Game 6. After playing well in smaller stretches (10 and 15 minutes) in Games 4 and 5, Spoelstra committed to going small for the long haul, playing 30 minutes without a true center. That’s a lot of fun, and both sides have some experience playing small, but it’s also quite a divergence from what was expected in thise matchup.
“It’s a great series. It’s a very competitive series,” Casey said with a laugh when asked about Winslow at the five. “It’s changed from a big, we went in prepared to go against one of the best shot-blockers in the game with their team, and now he’s out, and we were gonna go inside more to Valanciunas, and now he’s out, and now it’s more like a 6’7” and under league.
“It’s a fun series for our players to get adjusted to. And again, it’s basketball, it’s not rocket science.”
It’s not rocket science, no, but the Raptors are left looking for a way to adjust. Their starting lineup remained moderately effective despite the big-small dynamic, but the rest of their units struggled. They had to sit Kyle Lowry due to foul trouble more than they’d have liked, and it seemed they were intentionally getting him quick bursts of rests in the first half to keep him fresh late, but that doesn’t change the fact that some of the mish-mashed starter-reserve groups have to find a way to produce.
To wit, over the last three games, the starters are a plus-19 and the infamous Lowry-plus-reserves group (Joseph, Ross, Patterson, Biyombo) is a plus-9, six of their next seven most-used lineups have been outscored. Meanwhile, Miami is now a plus-16 with their starters, buried Amar’e Stoudemire groups that were dramatically outscored, and found a few other small iterations (using Josh Richardson or Tyler Johnson) that seemed to work. They even tried a three-point guard attack to really push the pace. (And yes, Casey pointed out that officials aren’t calling some Dragic contact on drives.)
“One thing is, you gotta get back in transition and load up to the basketball. We didn’t do a good job of getting back in transition…and being prepared for the speed that they were coming with,” Casey said. “I don’t think we did a good job of handling that (the contact) last night. The key is getting back and getting five men below the basketball. For whatever reason last night, we didn’t do a good job of loading up and getting five men blow the ball.”
One of the strangest byproducts – or lack thereof – of Miami going small was that the Raptors didn’t make hay on the glass, grabbing just eight offensive rebounds. If Miami’s small, that’s supposed to be something they’re surrendering, and the Raptors didn’t take advantage. That would be fine if they were actually getting back to snuff out the transition game, but they weren’t, and Goran Dragic ran a muck as a result.
“When we play more aggressive and everybody is attacking, that’s our game,” Dragic said, per Couper Moorhead of NBA.com “As long as we can get into the open court, that helps too.”
Morehead also provided this nugget: Dragic went 8-of-12 on his 21 drives, with two assists, and the Heat were 18-of-35 at the rim overall. That number at the rim isn’t all that effective, but it’s a large number of attempts. The Raptors did a better job in Game 4 and most of Game 5 (until late) at keeping Miami from beating them one-on-one, but they really lost the defensive plot on Friday.
“Me and Goran are always trying to get in the paint and when we are able to see the floor open, I think we both feel a lot better about our chances,” Dwyane Wade said.
So, the Raptors aren’t protecting the rim all that well because the Heat’s small group is pulling Biyombo away from it, and they’re not rebounding well but also not getting back in transition enough. That’s a really tough mix of things going wrong, and the Raptors are faced with a few tough strategic decisions as a result.
Who backs up Biyombo? The Raptors have gotten little from Jason Thompson or Lucas Nogueira, and it’s probably unfair to ask much from Luis Scola at this point. Personally, I’ve long thought going small was the answer off the bench, even though it’s tough to juggle the rotation such that Patterson’s the backup center. James Johnson could be key there, playing quick spot minutes in Patterson’s place (iffy given spacing concerns next to Biyombo), or working as the de facto backup power forward alongside Patterson in an inverted frontcourt setup (with Carroll shifting over more, and Norman Powell possibly seeing more minutes at the two to slow down Dragic). The Raptors aren’t getting the advantages of playing big outside of their starting group, so it’s worth trying to match smaller off the bench.
Do you hedge on Dragic? Biyombo can hedge and even switch on to guards, but with the Heat spacing the floor with smalls who can shoot and attack off the catch, this opens up other opportunities, and Winslow, while not a floor-spacer, can make the Raptors pay with his off-ball cuts and plays around the rim. The difficult and reductive answer may be that the team’s guards just have to do a better job on Dragic.
Do you crash the offensive glass? Casey stressed the need to get back in transition, so I doubt this happens, but I might consider it. If Miami’s going small, this is their biggest weakness, and Biyombo’s fast enough to rejoin the play in short order after attacking the boards. Even Patterson has done a good job crashing. It’s not a very Casey way of playing – Biyombo and Valanciunas were among the league’s best offensive rebounders, but Toronto had a strict “one man only” crashing philosophy – but they have to try to take an edge somewhere.
Can you play Lowry more? Yes. Part of why his minutes were low was foul trouble, and he was probably set to play the full second half if not for that. Maybe a couple quick breathers in the first half, but they need all the Lowry they can get. You’re not saving him for anything after this.
Of course, the Raptors have almost no time to implement these changes, though Casey doesn’t see that as a factor.
“It really doesn’t. We’ve gone small quite a bit throughout the year, played against smaller lineups, we’ve played without Jonas Valanciunas, we’ve played without DeMarre Carroll. We’ve had a lot of radical changes to our lineup, style of play, so the season kind of prepared us for this,” he said. “We’re kind of used to kind of having a radical change type of lineup and style of play.
“We understand how they’re gonna play. Last night was a little different, they went away from some of their sets…It’s nothing we haven’t seen throughout the year.”
Casey’s game-to-game adjustments in the playoffs have been pretty good. He’ll change something for Game 7. As I’ve outlined here, though, there are a number of different ways they can adjust, none of them perfect. This should be a lot of fun.
Is this Game 7 different?
The big buzz stats has been that the Raptors have never won a game when leading in a series (0-7), but that’s kind of a silly stat. And it may have a silver lining, too – the Raptors have played Game 7s at home twice in the past three years, and their Game 7 against Indiana in the last round may have provided a bit of stress-reducing experience.
“I think going through the Indiana series helped them tremendously. Now it’s about playing basketball and getting it done on the court,” Casey said.
As for what will be different, the removal of the weight of history off their backs should help.
“One thing, you either win or you go home. In the situation in the first series, I thought we were a little tight going into Game 7, because of the history,” Casey said. “I don’t sense that in this round.I sense a sense of understanding the moment. I think this Game 7 will be different than the last Game 7.”
In other words, giddy up?
“Game 7s are fun. I tell our guys, these are the games you work all summer for,” Casey said. “Let’s go out and play basketball and have fun competing.”
Assorted
*Everyone else came through Game 6 mostly healthy: “They came through last night OK. DeMar, DeMarre, made it through without further injury. Demarre tweaked his ankle a little bit last night but he’s OK. I think everybody came through healthy and ready to go.”
*You know what might help? The supporting cast not going 1-of-10 on threes in Game 6, and shooting poorly overall for the playoffs. Our man Joe Wolfond pulls the stats:
@JLew1050 they’re at 31.9% on what https://t.co/wFYKsuJ5dz deems “wide open” threes. were at 42.5% in regular season (2nd to warriors)
— Joe Wolfond (@joey_doubleyou) May 14, 2016
*Casey spoke highly of the impact of the Air Canada Centre crowd on the game: “It’s going to be huge., Last night, I thought the fans gave Miami a huge boost and was the sixth man for them. I know in Game 5 for us, our home crowd was huge., And the same in the last series. I can’;t say enough about our fans…We have some of the best fans in the league and one of the loudest crowds in the league…It’s exciting for our fans, it’s exciting for our franchise…I know our players are excited about being at home for Game 7.”
*Luol Deng is embracing being the road team, per Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald: “It’s going to be fun to have the crowd against you. When we look back one day, we’ll be very thankful to be in the position we’re in.”
*As a reminder for those coming in for the game, a chunk of the Gardiner is closed, so check your routes ahead of time and give yourself a bit of extra time.
