For the second time this post season the Toronto Raptors face elimination via Game 7 at home. True to form the Raptors never take the easy route, seemingly having a preference to be forced into back against the wall situations. This time offers a change from round 1, in that the Raptors don’t carry the same burden to win, having launched that proverbial monkey skyward.
That’s not to say a win isn’t the desired outcome so they can achieve yet another franchise milestone (reaching Eastern Conference Finals). Rather, the Raptors enter today’s mid afternoon tip with far less internal pressure.
The fact is the Raptors have gained more experience in this playoffs than any prior, and are not the same team of seasons past. Masai Ujiri has ample fodder for his off season tweaks and the Raptors core now have substantial knowledge they can utilize to foster their individual summer home work.
My streak of game day wins came to an end Friday (Blake called it), and I mark that up to selecting the Game 6 write-up because my heart wanted the win. I’m back today with no less invested in the desire for the Toronto Raptors to silence their critics. Though the rested Cavaliers (read: heavy favorites regardless of who advances) await, the value of experiencing a Conference Finals to whet the players appetite and gain knowledge is immeasurable.
With that, let’s break it down:
Game Specifics:
The Venue: Air Canada Centre, Toronto, ON
The Tip: 3:30 PM EST
TV: ABC, Sportsnet
Radio: TSN Radio, 1050 Toronto, 790 The Ticket/S in Miami and Sirius 207
Recommended Pregame Reading/Listening:
- Blake’s off day article is a must read. Specifically he theorizes who should back up Biyombo, whether Lowry should (and will) play additional minutes and addresses the adjustments required on the glass, in transition and how to deal with Dragic.
- Blake’s feature which should appease your concerns of another Game 7
- Kiyan’s Game 6, Quick React
- Blake’s post Game 6, analysis
- Zarar and William’s post Game 6 reaction podcast
- NBA.com SportsVU breakdown of Lowry vs Dragic, Wades Isolations, Biyombo on the boards and more
Story Lines:
Battered and Bruised: Of all the 2015-16 playoff series this one has been more like an MMA match than basketball. To wit, both teams are without their starting centers, both teams forwards suffered left wrist bruises and both teams point guards have taken more shots to the face than George Chuvalo.
DeRozan has made shoe lace remedies trendy. Chris Bosh is dealing with blood clots for the second consecutive year which threaten to potentially end his professional career.
Furthermore, if you wondered about DeMarre Carroll’s absence late in Game 6, it was due to him tweaking an ankle which may or may not have irritated his knee. And that’s just the injuries we know of. No one is 100% healthy, so it just comes down to which players have a higher pain tolerance, can perform better under pressure and a greater desire to win.
Desired Wade vs. LeBron ECF: Whether it’s ESPN pregame TV segments, national media or bloggers the main story line before the Raptors and Heat played a minute in the series was the potential for this match-up. James wants to take it to his previous team and Wade wants to show LeBron he can lead his Heat to upset the Cavaliers. The reality is without Whiteside the Heat offer arguably an easier opponent for the Cavs.
Conspiracy Whistle Blowers: If you’ve been waiting for Duane Casey to pull a Frank Vogel all series this is about as close as it gets:
Dwane Casey says the Raptors need to be ready for Dragic making contact on drives — “officials are not calling it.” pic.twitter.com/5oTguPgl0r
— James Herbert (@outsidethenba) May 14, 2016
In the post Game 6 podium presser Casey was asked if he felt Lowry was not receiving the officials respect. Casey avoided an out right answer focusing instead on the Raptors lack of consistent defense or offensive production. Though the fan base has an argument that the whistle has been shady especially with the in cylinder bad call, Wade no calls, Lowry’s ridiculous fourth foul or myriad of Dragic elbows one stat is telling:
Is there a conspiracy? Most will say no, it’s just coincidence Lowry had foul trouble in Game 4 and Game 6. If you review Lowry’s fouls for the most part they are defensible. The problem for most fans is Dragic and Wade are afforded leeway on exactly (if not worse) infractions. The other issue is the timing of whistles has many fans up in arms given they seem to coincide with Raptors runs. Again, this could purely be the result of being aggressive which leads to fouls.
Ultimately, it’s up the Raptors to ignore the calls and take matters into their own hands. They’ve played into the whistle by not bringing consistent defense or hitting crucial shots. There is one way to deal with the whistle and that’s simply to not allow it to matter. Teams like Golden State and Oklahoma City who will meet in the Western Conference Finals had to overcome the same situation early in their rise up the ladder when they faced teams who had established identities and respect. The time has arrived for the Toronto Raptors to do the same.
That said, if Miami appears to be getting the home whistle early (read: sarcasm), Casey must bite the bullet and take the technical. That action should function to get the crowd in the game, motivate the players and hopefully hold the officials accountable to call an even game. Casey was on Rick Carlisle’s staff when they beat the Heat for the title in 2011, and I’ll never forget Carlisle going ballistic to take the tech which ended in the refs calling an even game with a few notable calls they hadn’t received on the road to that point finally going their way.
History Books:
- Per Elias Sports Bureau, since the first round went to a best of 7 games in 2002-03, this is the first time both teams went the duration in each of the first two rounds.
- As per nba.com there have been 123 game 7s in history with the home team winning 80.5% of the time. In the past 11 game 7s the home team has won 10 times and yes the lone loss was the Raptors to the Nets.
- Today represents the Raptors fourth game 7 in their history. The first ending in a loss with Vince Carter’s shot bouncing off the rim in Philly. The second another loss when Lowry lost the ball driving the paint, regained it only to have Paul ‘Raptors don’t have “it” Pierce’ blocking his shot and the third with a win this season over the Pacers.
- The Raptors are 2-7 in close out game opportunities whereas the Heat are 7-1 in close out games.
- Toronto is 1-4 in elimination games with the lone win coming off Alvin Williams hands in MSG.
- Miami have won their last four Game 7s, but notably three of those wins came with a man named LeBron in the line-up. Historically the Heat are 6-3 in Game 7s with their latest being the first round win in Charlotte to reach this series. As for the other 5 eliminations games Wade played in 3 winning once at home (03-04) and losing twice (at home to Pistons 04-05 and on the road to Atlanta 09-10). The 2 pre-Wade elimination games featured Game 7s versus the Knicks on both occasions with one win (at home in 96-97) and one loss also at home in 99-00.
- If the Heat win they’ll join the Celtics and Lakers as the only teams in history to win 5 straight Game 7s.
- The victor of Game 7 will be just the 15th team to win two Game 7’s in one post season run. Should the Raptors win they’ll move on to their first ECFs and for the Heat they would become the first team to come back in consecutive series after trailing 3-2.
Lessons Learned:
Dirty Dragic: No surprise here, the elbow wielding Dragic was key to the Heat’s win in Game 6. The Raptors need to contain his dribble penetration, clog his passing lanes and force him to shoot contested shots.
Heat Small Ball Starting 5: The Heat had great success going entirely small with 6’7 Justise Winslow at center, so expect the same line-up. To counter act this Casey’s strategy should be to force the Heat into taking outside shots by packing the paint which should also serve to allow them to control the defensive boards.
Further, Toronto have to set the tempo and pace. A key to doing this is also by dominating the offensive glass so the Heat don’t get out quickly in transition.
Lowry/DeRozan: The All-Star backcourt have put together consecutive strong games. The difference in the loss was Toronto’s bench who arguably over achieved through the first 12 games collectively had their worst post season game.
pictures courtesy of NBA TV
Keys to Win:
Control the pace: Obviously Miami will look to force the pace as they did in Game 6. One of the key differences in the Heats wins versus their losses is the number of shots they took. Notably in their 3 wins the Heat attempted 84.3 shots versus losses 77.6 shots. Obviously that becomes a more difficult problem with the small ball line-up, but it comes down to the Raptors defense in transition, stopping dribble penetration and forcing contested shots.
Get Dragic in early foul trouble: Maybe it seems like a simplistic answer, but Dragic represents the worst Heat defender in the starting line-up. Toronto should go at him early and often to try to get him in foul trouble. At worst forcing him to defend can work to fatigue him and hopefully effect his offensive production.
As good as Wade has been his production is virtually the same in wins (25.3ppg) versus losses (25.0), although he posted 38 points in the Game 3 loss.
Hit open threes: The Raptors missed numerous open perimeter shots in Game 6 with Lowry hitting 3 of the 4 they made (Carroll hit the other). Though not a guarantee, one would anticipate players like Patterson, Ross and potentially Powell should he see time would be more comfortable at home.
Be the aggressor: In the Heat’s wins they have averaged 45.8% from the field. Though their field goal percent in losses doesn’t vary much (44.2) that can be attributed to Game 2 when Deng was still scoring and Whiteside was still playing. In each win the Raptors have progressively lowered the Heat’s field goal percent: Game 2: 49.4%, Game 3: 42.9% and Game 5: 40.3%. If this trend holds true it would require the Raptors to bring aggressive defense for a full 48.
Offensive adjustments: Again pulling from their wins the Raptors need to move the ball (and players), drive the paint early and often and most important get into their offensive sets earlier. Whether the latter is doable given the teams propensity to draw out shot clocks is a huge question mark, but they’ve demonstrated they can do it in wins. The major difference will be forcing themselves to keep the heat on (no pun intended) through 48 minutes rather than getting a lead and then playing not to lose.
Take advantage of Heat’s small ball and dominate the glass: With the Heat utilizing this ultra small line-up the Raptors have to grab the advantage on the glass. Shockingly in Game 6 the Raptors had just 1 extra rebound on each end. Defensive rebounds won will stop second chance opportunities and offensive rebounds serves a dual purpose of giving the Raptors their own second chance opportunities while stopping the Heat from getting out quickly in transition.
Use the crowd to build momentum: It’s been said repeatedly: the Raptors fought through injury and adversity this season to produce 56 wins and the East’s second seed. They did that to have the right to host a Game 7 and play in front of their home crowd. Several players pointed to the ACC faithful providing them with energy in Game 5, so if you’re one of the lucky ones make sure to fuel the Raptors with energy. By virtue of the round 1, Game 7 victory the intense pressure to succeed is removed, albeit franchise history is begging for that round 2 series win milestone to be met.
Raptors bench: They’ve been spectacular throughout the playoffs and collectively had their worst showing in Game 6. Logically the bench should rebound at home and for those who witnessed Cory Joseph’s worst game of the playoffs (possibly of the season) I’ll point you to a recent occasion when he was faced with rebounding from a devastating loss to become the game winning hero:
Series Stats:
Walking Wounded:
Chris Bosh remains out as do both teams centers: Jonas Valanciunas and Hassan Whiteside.
DeMarre Carroll and Luol Deng who each left game 5 after left wrist injuries both played in Game 6 and will be expected to start Game 7. While Carroll tweaked his ankle it was apparently a minor tweak, so we should expect JYD 2.0 in the line-up.
Rotations:
Raptors:
PG: Kyle Lowry, Cory Joseph
SG:DeMar DeRozan Norman Powell,
SF: DeMarre Carroll, Terrence Ross,
PF: Patrick Patterson, James Johnson, Luis Scola,
C: Bismack Biyombo, Jason Thompson, Lucas Nogueira
Heat:
PG: Goran Dragic, Tyler Johnson
SG: Dwyane Wade, Josh Richardson,
SF: Joe Johnson,, Gerald Green
PF: Luol Deng, Josh McRoberts
C: Justise Winslow, Udonis Haslem, Amar’e Stoudemire
Spoelstra didn’t play Haslem or Stoudemire at all in G6 electing to utilize just 8 players with McRoberts (18) and Johnson (15) playing limited minutes. This means the veteran core of Wade, Deng, Johnson and Dragic will all log heavy minutes.
Lowry and DeRozan are used to this workload. Alternatively, the Heat’s 30+ crew aren’t used to this type of run. I’ve stated repeatedly the Heat’s veteran core would eventually succumb to these minutes with signs of fatigue specifically on the Raptors court. With the up tempo pace and the Raptors younger counterparts could Game 7 finally result in an edge for Toronto?
The main roster question is which Raptor provides back-up center minutes and whether Casey will remove the shackles from Norman Powell to offer resistance to Dragic. Powell did an admirable job at slowing speedy guard Monta Ellis in round 1, but will Casey trust him in a G7?
James Johnson played 6 minutes in Game 6 and was relatively successful. Given Nogueira and Thompson didn’t offer much in response perhaps JJ will get some burn to at least put his body on Wade or Joe Johnson. And raise your hand if you would love to see Johnson set a screen that levels Dragic in payback for all his whistle-less infractions.
The Line:
Game 1: Raptors -4.5 (Heat 102, Raptors 96 in OT)
Game 2: Raptors -5 (Raptors 96, Heat 92 in OT)
Game 3: Heat -5.5 (Raptors 95, Heat 91)
Game 4: Heat -5 (Heat 94, Raptors 87)
Game 5: Raptors -4.5 (Raptors 99, Heat 91)
Game 6: Heat -4 (Heat 103, Raptors 91)
Game 7: Raptors -4.5
True to form the odds makers have given the home town team the edge each game, so Toronto enters as the 4.5 point favorite. The over-under is 188.5 points and a very slight edge favoring the Raptors.
Referee Assignments:
Not the best draw, truth be told:
Danny Crawford, James Capers, Zach Zarba and alternate Kane Fitzgerald
In Closing:
Let’s keep it simple here- Game 7s are full of drama, anxiety and angst, but unlike the majority of years the Toronto Raptors are still playing with a chance to continue.
For the players they get the opportunity to make their drive-way childhood dreams come to fruition. For the franchise the prospect of recognizing another milestone. And for the fans the chance to cheer for the best Toronto Raptors team ever and see a major league team go to a third round of post season play. These moments are meant to be cherished.
Entering the day the Raptors have yet to lose two games in a row since mid March and are the better, deeper team. Whether you are among those at the ACC, or watching from home or in Jurassic Park let’s send all our positive energy to this Toronto Raptors team who gave us so many magical memories this season.
Let’s GO RAPTORS!
