While all focus in Toronto is firmly on the Raptors’ upcoming Eastern Conference Finals series against the Cavaliers, the 2016 NBA Draft Lottery will take place before Game 1 tips off on Tuesday.
Representing the Raptors on the lottery floor will be Masai Ujiri, flanked by Dan Tolzman in the drawing room.
The #DraftLottery Stage Participants & Lottery Room Reps announced for Tuesday's Lottery in NYC! pic.twitter.com/T4Hj7Dx1BY
— NBA Draft (@NBADraft) May 16, 2016
As a quick refresher, the Raptors are owed a first-round pick from the New York Knicks, but the Denver Nuggets have first claim at it. That complicates the Raptors’ lottery odds – they don’t simply own the odds of the Nuggets, because the Nuggets have the right to decline the swap if their own pick lands higher, so Toronto’s odds become a complicated conditional probability function. I broke all of this down in detail here (and here), but here’s a high level (#HighLevel) look at what you need to know:
The Knicks finished 7th-last. The Nuggets finished in a three-way tie for 8th-last, which means they’ll split the ping-pong balls for the Nos. 8, 9, and 10 spots, with the Nuggets landing an extra ball from the flip. What’s important from the flip, though, is that the Nuggets slot 9th, not 8th, which impacts Toronto’s most likely landing spot.
Based on the Knicks and Nuggets finishing 7th and T-8th=9th, the Raptors will have a 0.1687-percent chance of landing the No. 2 pick, or roughly a 1-in-593 chance. They will most likely pick ninth but could conceivably pick at Nos. 2, 3, 8, 9, 10, 11, or 12.
The Raptors will also select 27th with their own pick. They convey their 2nd-round pick to Memphis to complete the 2009 Hedo Turkoglu trade.
The draft lottery will take place at 8 p.m. and will air on TSN here in Canada.
The Raptors really should have sent Andrea Bargnani to the room, right?
