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Raptors-Cavaliers Series Preview Q&A

Going deep behind enemy lines to find out if MGK is really enough to match up with Drake.

The Toronto Raptors have graduated from the Cryami Weaks to the Grieveland Cavatears. Out of the crying pan, into the crier, as it were.

I kid, of course. The Heat series was awesome, and with the Raptors prevailing, they’re now on to an incredibly difficult test in the Cleveland Cavaliers. They are the employers of LeBron James, Kyrie Irving, and Kevin Love, they are the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference, and they found themselves on another level entirely over the first two rounds (scoring an obscene 117 points per-100 possessions). As far as the East is concerned, they are Toronto’s Goliath – The Cavs are -1200 favorites in the series, with an implied win probability of 92.3 percent, and they are 10.5-point favorites in Game 1, the largest spread of any Raptors playoff game so far.

But there’s a chance. There’s always a chance. There is variance, there is randomness, there is momentum, there are injuries, and there is chaos. The odds are long, but the Raptors were and are the second best team in the East. If anyone’s going to push Cleveland, it’s the Raptors. Or at least, the Raptors that showed up for Game 7 against Miami. THAT Raptors team can push Cleveland even more than Atlanta, who entered the playoffs in a real groove and were excellent in the second half of the season (it was a competitive sweep, if such things exist). If it’s the Toronto team that showed up against Indiana and in Game 6 against Miami, it’s a little harder to be optimistic. If the right Raptors show up, though? Hey, they took two of three in the regular season, DeMarre Carroll’s rounding into form, and Kyle Lowry Over Everything.

Plus, LeBron James is overrated and not clutch or some such garbage, and Cleveland’s even more tormented than Toronto, right?

If you can tell how much effort it took to drum up optimism for a competitive series, well, yeah. The Cavaliers are really, really good. The Raptors are in tough here. Nobody on the Cleveland side is all too worried, and I’d be surprised if anyone on the national scale picks this to go more than six. They also mostly picked the Heat in six, though. (/Extremely Enzo Amore voice – Coupla haters.) 

With the quick turnaround between series, there’s not a ton of time to go deep and explore where the Raptors may be able to find edges and steal a game or two, but we’ll try. And we’re fortunate to have a friend familiar with both sides – Justin Rowan of Fear the Sword happens to be a Cavs fan based in Canada, one who knows both teams well and was kind enough to help set the series up. He’s also never had a bad hair day in his life. Give him a follow for the upcoming series (and then a really quick unfollow after).

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Blake Murphy: LeBron James may not have won an MVP, but he remains one of, if not the, best basketball player on planet earth. The first two rounds of the playoffs made it seem as if he kept something extra in store all year for the playoffs, as he should have. The Raptors brought in DeMarre Carroll to help with matchups like this (and has done a decent job on James in the past), Patrick Patterson has improved a great deal guarding power-threes but will be needed on Kevin Love and Channing Frye, and James Johnson theoretically exists. Do the Raptors have enough defensive tools to slow James down a little and make the other Cavaliers beat them?

Justin Rowan: I think outside of Kawhi Leonard there isn’t a player better suited to guard LeBron James than DeMarre Carroll. He has the strength and size to be an annoyance to him. In the playoffs LeBron is taking 47.7 percent of his shots within three feet of the rim and is passing on 41.1 percent of his drives. He’s trusting his teammates more than ever and it’s making his game far less predictable. So while making everyone else beat you is the proper strategy with the Cavs, it’s been the team effort so far in the playoffs that has made them so deadly.

carroll on james

Blake Murphy: How have the Cavs not gotten more fans? I mean, it’s one lone All-Star and a cast of role players around him. This is a true underdog team. AMIRIGHT? (And yes, I’m just throwing you a lob to troll here. Apologies to everyone else in advance.)

Justin Rowan: Well when you don’t have anyone giving away iPhones in order to get you in as an All Star starter things can be tough. In all seriousness you can make the argument that Lowry and Irving are the two best point guards in the East and there’s a good chance the whole All Star angle will add some fuel to what promises to be a bright fire.

Blake Murphy: On paper, the Love-Frye frontcourt duo should be death for the Raptors. How much has Cleveland leaned on that pairing, and can the Raptors do anything to combat it? The Patterson-Biyombo duo may have the defensive range, but it opens up the rim, and they can’t really punish them at the other end. Tristan Thompson is obviously great, but is the Canadian only the third most important big for Cleveland in this series? Carroll and Patterson might be able to switch James-Love pick-and-rolls comfortably, but Toronto can’t afford to send any help on those actions, right?

Justin Rowan: The Frye-Love-James frontcourt has been something Tyronn Lue mostly waited until the playoffs to reveal. Most knew it was coming, but it has been absolutely devastating so far and without Jonas Valanciunas punishing the slender Frye in the post, I expect heavy doses of that, as well as Love playing at center. The Frye/Love duo allows the Cavs to run pick and rolls with Irving and James where James can roll to the basket with four knockdown shooters surrounding him. Thompson will still play an important role as the battle of the boards will be huge for Toronto and his defensive versatility will allow him to disrupt guys like Lowry and DeRozan and force them into mid-range shots, but given Toronto’s limitations I expect Lue to turn to more floor spacing unless Jonas returns.

lineups

(Note: The James-Love-Frye trio only played 19 minutes together over the first two rounds, but they scored 114.2 PPC and had a plus-16.8 net rating.)

Blake Murphy: What life advice do you think J.R. Smith will give Terrence Ross as the series ends?

Justin Rowan: “When in doubt, shoot” – J.R. Smith. It’s actually not the worst advice because Ross can be indecisive and that indecision usually leads to a bad fadeaway shot. If you’re open and the ball touches your fingers, put it up. The simplified role has lead to J.R. playing some of the best ball on both sides of the court in his career. Ross could benefit from it.


Trying-to-get-the-pipe
Blake Murphy: Kyle Lowry versus Kyrie Irving has been a popular debate over the last two years. I know you believe Irving is better on the whole, but can you concede that Lowry was better this season (and yes, Irving was coming back from injury)? Who do you expect to have a bigger impact in this series – it seems Irving should be able to score just fine given Toronto’s trouble with rangy point guards, but can he slow an apparently no-longer-slumping Lowry enough to win the battle? This looks like Toronto’s biggest potential advantage, if Irving can’t get up to defend consistently, and they’ll need Lowry to win this battle every night.

Justin Rowan: Lowry was absolutely better in the regular season. It’s impossible to deny. Last year I would give Irving the edge, but coming off of knee surgery in addition to skinny Kyle having his most consistent season ever you need to give the edge to Lowry.

But this Cavs team isn’t about the regular season. James is still showing he can be the best player in any given series, and Irving is playing out of his mind and playing some pretty good defense as well. From a Cavs standpoint, if Irving’s scoring matches Lowry, Toronto basically has no chance. Lowry has to take on a bigger role and is their best player, so if you have Irving matching him night after night, it’s unlikely Toronto manufactures enough offense to come away with the win.

I think it’s possible for Irving to win the battle, but when it comes to stopping/slowing down elite point guards, it’s a whole team effort. No point guard can stop a high end point guard one on one. They might play decent defense in space, but normally they get hit with a pick immediately and that point guard becomes a team problem. Maybe Irving wins the match up, but so far in the playoffs the Cavs have attacked wherever they have a match up advantage, so it’ll depend on who has the hot hand and where they can draw the most blood. Lowry is going to be relied upon every game in this series to try and be a match up advantage.

lowry irving


Blake Murphy: Will Matthew Dellavedova be allowed back in Canada by the end of the series?

Justin Rowan: The bond Canada and Australia share as commonwealth countries may not be enough for Delly to maintain a valid passport after this series.


Blake Murphy: The Cavs look pretty impenetrable as far as this matchup goes. I like how the Raptors match up in a few spots (being able to play two point guards a lot, Lowry getting into the paint, Bebe being a much better 13th-man than Sasha Kaun), but it’s hard to point to a strategic element they could really lean on, and Cleveland’s 3-point shooting is a major, major concern. I guess maybe if the Cavs opt to have James guard off of DeRozan (which I think is the likely case, to start games)? But they can just correct if he gets going. If you were to point to a weakness that Toronto might be able to exploit, what would it be? 

Justin Rowan: I don’t expect James to guard DeRozan much in this series. All season long, the Cavs have had J.R. Smith take the toughest wing assignment and while the early results weren’t great, he’s turned into a fairly solid defender and did a tremendous job locking down Kyle Korver against the Hawks. So if there’s one place the Cavs could be tested, it would be how Smith holds up against DeRozan. If Smith can make DeRozan make field goals instead of free throws and keep him away from the rim, then it’s hard to point to one spot where the Raptors have a large advantage. Bottom line is DeMar is going to need to play much better than before.

cavs def


Blake Murphy: Who matches up with Drake? MGK? Kid Cudi? Does “AND NEWWWW…” Stipe Miocic draw the P.K. Subban assignment?

Justin Rowan: MGK is a strong candidate. The Cavs already broke out Bone Thugs and Harmony last round, but I wouldn’t be opposed to bringing them back for Toronto. I think they’ll probably put RG3 on Subban.

Blake Murphy: If I could tell you right now that Jonas Valanciunas plays from Game 1 onward, how does that change your opinion of the series?

Justin Rowan: If he was playing and limited I think the series wouldn’t be as wide open. The Cavs would need to adjust to his size similar to how they played Andre Drummond. I would think about giving Toronto a game out of respect.

Blake Murphy: Call it.

Justin Rowan: I don’t see Jonas playing or being close to himself if he does. Big Biz is going up against the better version of himself in Tristan Thompson and a seven foot three point specialist instead of a rookie shooting guard at center. With their injuries I don’t see this Toronto team as better than Atlanta last round. I’m going with a Cavs sweep.


Blake Murphy: This preview reads pretty pessimistic from a Raptors perspective, in part because we’re talking to someone on the Cavs side, in part because the Cavs are just a huge favorite, and in part because Justin’s the worst. I’m saying Cavaliers in 5, sadly, but I think those five games will be really competitive. Check back tomorrow for more on what the Raptors can do to neutralize some of Cleveland’s advantages and create some of their own.

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