Tonight marks the Toronto Raptors 20th game of this post season. That fact alone signifies how successful this historic run has been.
For most, reaching the Eastern Conference Finals was the goal along with the valuable experience the young core would gain in doing so. Yet the manner in how the Raptors made this run has far exceeded expectations.
Slogging through two series pushed to the max against top defensive squads with super star talent showcased their grit. Having to accomplish that feat while the All-Star backcourt had off shooting nights demonstrated their depth. Dealing with numerous injuries,and line-up shuffles cemented their tenacity. Constantly being written off and having to address ridiculous off court personal attacks of their professionalism and heart only served to reveal their true character.
By the time the team reached the ECF they were expected to be swept away by the king led $162M well rested Cavaliers. Certainly if they had lost in that manner (or even in a gentleman’s sweep) the season would still have been deemed a resounding success. But this squad who seemingly prefers to play from a disadvantage has risen to the challenge each and every time.
In order to continue this magical season and post season journey they’ll need to draw from that well once more. Ultimately the team who wins on the others home court will be the one who advances to the NBA Finals.
Facing their third elimination game of this post season the Raptors must first maintain their home court prowess with a win tonight. To do so they’ll need to replicate their last 2 home game efforts and overcome the odds.
To wit, while the numbers allow an argument to be made for either team the experience and success of LeBron James provides a steep mountain to climb.
Number Crunching:
- If the Raptors force a Game 7 (their third consecutive in this playoffs) they will be the first team to ever do so prior to a finals (as per Elias Sports Bureau)
- This 20th game is 2 shy of the cumulative number the Raptors have played in their past 10 seasons
- Cleveland is 11-0 when scoring 100 points
- Cavs are 7-0 when their Big 3 of James, Irving and Love each score 20 or more points
- Conversely in Raptors losses DeRozan and Lowry are averaging 28.3 cumulative points whereas they average 59.5 points in wins.
- DeRozan has averaged 29 points in the Raptors 2 previous elimination games
- Raptors are 10-1 in games they hold their opponent under 100 which is the most by any of the 4 remaining teams
- Raptors are 7-1 when they have a better field goal percentage
- Toronto is 9-1 when they have more assists
- Raptors are a perfect 8-0 when they play at home on a Friday night
- Lowry and DeRozan’s 30 point performances in Game 4 are just the third time in NBA playoff history a duo have accomplished that feat: Kobe Bryant (36) and Shaquille O’Neal (35) did it in 2002, and Charles Barkley (43) and Dan Majerle (34) did in 1993.
- The Raptors have played every other day since April 29th or 14 games with tonight marking their 15th. Conversely the Cavaliers have played 9 games in the same time frame, but also experienced a 7-day rest between Round 1 and Round 2 and another 8-day rest between Round 2 and the ECF. This does beg the question on whether the Raptors Game 5 blow-out in Cleveland had anything to do with the toll this long post season is reeking on the players bodies. If you want to take a positive from that oust, Lowry and DeRozan worked off season to prepare their bodies precisely for an extended run and if nothing else their bodies are used to playing extended minutes.
Adjustments:
Start hot: The team who starts by playing with aggression has gone on to win in every case.
Make the Big 3 a Big 2: In their wins the Raptors were able to hold down at least one of Cleveland’s big 3
Figure out Frye & bench: As much as the above item needs to be a focus, Dwane Casey still needs to figure out how to stop the James line that includes Channing Frye and the Cavs bench unit. They play better defensively and spread the court better. With Patrick Patterson nursing a sore hand it may be limiting him, however it makes more sense to have Patterson guard Frye in order to allow Biyombo the ability to protect the paint.
MOVE: If Cleveland continue to send double teams at Lowry and DeRozan the simplistic answer is to move the ball. In both wins the Raptors moved the ball and their bodies arguably the best we witnessed all season
Drive: Toronto need to continue to take the ball strong into the paint where they can either gain easy scores at the basket or kick it out to an open shooter on the perimeter.
Use Valanciunas wisely: If Cleveland is trying to force pace a good counter to that would be to utilize JV to slow the pace. That said this option has to be utilized when Love and Frye both aren’t on the floor together as the advantage would possibly lost on the opposite end if he’s pulled out of the paint.
X-Factor:Carroll is dealing with a litany of injuries: aside from his recovering knee, he’s got the wrist, ankle and elbow to contend with. Still if he could hit on a few more 3 point attempts it forces Cleveland to spread out their defense. So far in the series Carroll is averaging a meager 16.7% on 4 of 24 from behind the arc. If he can find a way to make his elbow and wrist non factors tonight to bring that average closer to his in season average of 39% it would offer a solution for a third scorer.
It’s a given the Cavs will employ their strategy to shut down DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry, so it’s important someone else becomes a factor. Looking back over the years there is always someone who plays a role who isn’t among the core producers. Could that player be Carroll? Or could Terrence Ross finally emerge to have a big game? Possibly Valanciunas could be that guy, and while he is part of the Big 3, in fairness just returning from injury it may not be fair to put him in that position.
Digging into the numbers:
There’s no use reinventing the wheel so thanks to SportVU I offer you some telling analysis:
Defending Kevin Love: If there is one area of concern entering Game 6 it’s the fact Kevin Love had a huge game following several lack luster performances. The following chart details how (and who) the Raptors have defended him and to what success:
DeRozan creating issues for Cleveland: As per the SportVU chart below it showcases exactly how much game planning the Cavaliers are having to do to stop DeRozan. As much as James has been successful at holding DeRozan somewhat in check coupled with the Cavs choosing to send two defenders at him I like this counter. My reason is, if the Raptors move the ball like they did in their last two home games this defense allows for DeRozan to pass to an open teammate and the Cavs are forced to scramble to recover i.e. giving the Raptors open shots and more time in which to get them up.
Kyle versus Kyrie: This is a little misleading when you consider the blow out nature of all the Cavaliers games, however it offers some intriguing stats:
For those interested there is also a chart on SportVU breaking down the teams’ drives. It may seem surprising Cleveland is gaining more points per possession in those situations, but not when you consider how successful the Frye unit has been.
Rebounding Giants:
Consider for a moment the sheer number of big men who’ve logged minutes in these playoffs and then factor in Bismack Biyombo didn’t start until part way through the second round. Then consider Jonas Valanciunas sat out most of the second round and just returned in Game 5 of the ECF. They both find themselves ranking top 5 in playoff rebounding with Bis sitting atop the heap (far ahead of his closest competitor) and JV ranks fifth.
Game Specifics:
The Venue: Air Canada Centre, Toronto, ON
The Tip: 8:30 PM EST
TV: ESPN, Sportsnet
Radio: Sportset 590 the FAN, WTAM 1100/100.7 WMMS, 87.7 FM (ESP)
Recommended Pregame Reading/Listening:
Box Score | Quick Reaction | Post-Game Podcast
Playoff Stats:
Walking Wounded:
Patterson is expected to play despite a sore hand as per CBC
Rotations:
Raptors:
PG: Kyle Lowry, Cory Joseph, (Delon Wright)
SG:DeMar DeRozan, Terrence Ross, (Norman Powell)
SF: DeMarre Carroll, James Johnson, (Bruno Caboclo)
PF: Luis Scola, Patrick Patterson,
C: Bismack Biyombo, Jonas Valanciunas, (Jason Thompson), (Lucas Nogueira)
Cavaliers projected rotation
PG: Kyrie Irving, Matthew Dellavedova, (Mo Williams)
SG: J.R. Smith, Iman Shumpert, (Dahntay Jones), (Jordan McRae)
SF: LeBron James, Richard Jefferson
PF: Kevin Love, (James Jones)
C: Tristan Thompson, Channing Frye, (Timofey Mozgov), (Sasha Kaun)
The Line:
Game 1: Cavaliers -10.5 (Cavaliers 115, Raptors 84)
Game 2: Cavaliers -11.5 (Cavaliers 108, Raptors 89)
Game 3: Cavaliers -5.5 (Raptors 99, Cavaliers 84)
Game 4: Cavaliers -6.5 (Raptors 105, Cavaliers 99)
Game 5: Cavaliers -11.5 (Cavaliers 116, Raptors 78)
Game 6: Cavaliers -6
After a 38 point blow-out it’s not surprising the odds makers continue to bank on the Cavaliers in spite of them not having won a game North of the border this season. The over under is 196.6 points but Cleveland are only slight favorites (and have dropped from their initial opening), a likely result of how the Raptors play at home. .
Referee Assignments:
Danny Crawford, Bill Kennedy, Jason Phillips and alternate John Goble
In Closing:
In yet more numbers to consider, LeBron James enters tonight fresh off earning a spot on the All NBA First Team. Kyle Lowry also comes to the court having earned a well deserved All NBA Third Team spot (though I think he deserved a spot on the second team).
Notably Kyrie Irving said the past two games at the ACC were the most hostile environment he’s ever experienced in the playoffs (and he experienced Oracle, so that’s saying something.)
Since the onset of the series the Raptors have dealt with a lack of respect. Sir Charles referred to the Raptors as guppies facing the Cavs’ sharks, shouting “FOUR, FOUR, FOUR”. His counterpart Shaquille O’Neal has picked the Raptors opponent to win in every series. South of the border declarations of the Raptors being mannequins not worthy of being on the same court spewed forth.
Stephen A. (does that stand for a–hole?) Smith vacillated between put downs, apologies and recants. In arguably the most disturbing story line Lowry was called out for abandoning his team and having no heart. I wondered at the time if these writers and analysts just hadn’t watched this team to know how ridiculous that statement was. Having witnessed Lowry’s growth into a leader the fact he chose to not get ejected for arguing or bring his frustrations to the bench showcased his maturity in my opinion. Even a certain Sun writer was seemingly seeking his turn on TMZ with what could be deemed nothing more than a headline hunting for attention (and a follow up to justify his actions).
Meanwhile, Michael Grange faced a stare down from “LeFlop” for daring to ask the hard question and kudos to him for doing so. And Tyronn Lue has gone out of his way to shelter Kevin Love from the masses while he struggled early in the series. In truth, the Cavaliers have faced very little adversity to this point. And although they’ve yet to lose at Quicken Loans surely a forced Game 7 could offer some tension for the confident Cavaliers who most certainly are aware in a one game winner take all, these Raptors could do the unthinkable.
So, while I can dissect the numbers til I’m blue in the face, ultimately the only thing that matters is which player and team has the greater desire to win. Ever the optimist, I’ll put my faith in the bull dog who refuses to succumb to anything written or said about him and bet (pun intended) on one number: that Kyle Lowry’s heart is the largest on the court!
As the Raptors reach for that milestone as the first team to ever force three Game 7s, prior to the finals let’s offer Kyle Lowry and this magical Toronto Raptors squad with the inspiration to do just that.
Win or lose they deserve our admiration as the greatest Toronto Raptors team in franchise history.
Go Raptors!
