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Pre-game news and notes: ‘We were trying but we weren’t trying’

The season is on the line. The Raptors are undefeated in such situations this year.

The Toronto Raptors have their backs against the wall. Down 3-2 to the Cleveland Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference Finals, the Raptors get the benefit of home court to extend their season at least one more game. Not to eulogize early in a series they can still win, but if this is the last home game of the year, it’s really been a remarkable run.

But it might not be! The Raptors have to win back-to-back games against the Cavs, which sounds daunting, but they’ve already done it in this series. No, they haven’t beaten Cleveland in The Land yet, but the Cavs don’t own a win in Toronto, either. There are a lot of “while” and “but” and “if” to throw around here, made all the less sensical and wishy-washy because this series has been such a strange mixed bag. Which Raptors team shows up? Do the Cavs have that killer instinct, as James has often possessed in close-out playoff games? Will the home court really swing another game, as it’s done throughout the postseason?

And can we give it up for the ACC for a minute? I know home court is and has been a thing, but the degree to which the ACC has impacted games over the last six weeks, and how much players and coaches on every team have spoken about it, is really cool. It’s awesome that the Raptors have one of the best fanbases in basketball, and it’s not just lip service. They’re going to need every decibel Friday.

The game tips off at 8:30 p.m. from the Air Canada Centre. ESPN has the game in the U.S., with Mike Breen, Jeff Van Gundy, Mark Jackson, and Doris Burke on the call, while TSN has the Canadian broadcast and TSN 1050 has radio rights. Danny Crawford, Bill Kennedy, and Jason Phillips are the officials.

Required reading
Here’s what you need ahead of Game 6, assuming you haven’t been keeping up.

*Tamberlyn has your full game preview here. Alex Wong and I talked about it a little bit on a bad podcast from Cleveland, too.
*No word if any players were out at casinos last night. What a stupid story. (The Raptors have their teammates backs, by the way.)
*LeBron James didn’t think Game 5 was an adverse situation for the Cavs. Game 6 is decidedly one for Toronto, and they “didn’t get this far for nothing.”
*The key to Game 6 may be busting the Cavs’ traps, and Jonas Valanciunas could be the key.

Raptors updates
The Raptors are no longer dealing with any major injuries. Jonas Valanciunas played 18 minutes in Game 5 and the team is hoping to ramp up his involvement again for Game 6. Whether that means he starts or not is yet to be seen.

“There’s nobody that’s 100 percent,” Casey said, suggesting that for the most part, Valanciunas is doing well. He did highlight timing and defensive awareness as specific rusty areas. “He’s trying to get his rhythm back. I thought he looked good offensively the other night.”

Raptors projected rotation
PG: Kyle Lowry, Cory Joseph, (Delon Wright)
SG: DeMar DeRozan, T.J. Ross, (Norman Powell)
SF: DeMarre Carroll, James Johnson, (Bruno Caboclo)
PF: Luis Scola, Patrick Patterson
C: Bismack Biyombo, Jonas Valanciunas, (Jason Thompson), (Lucas Nogueira)

I outlined in the Valanciunas post linked above that personally, I would start him. Here’s my justification (but click for more):

My answer to this question is “yes.” Casey wouldn’t tip his hand at shootaround, but I think there’s a good case to be made for making the swap.

For one, it lets Valanciunas match up against Tristan Thompson more, his best defensive matchup. The Cavs bringing Channing Frye in earlier has led to Thompson playing with the second unit some, but keeping Valanciunas from chasing Kevin Love and Channing Frye would be ideal given the condition of his ankle (and the fact that he’s generally not that great against mobile centers).
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The team needs top optimize every minute, and while the Luis Scola-Valanciunas frontcourt has been pretty bad defensively, a Love-Thompson pairing opposite them is tenable (if, like the Raptors, you’re of the mind that Scola can handle Love). The important thing is keeping Valanciunas from being matched against Frye or Love in single-big lineups, and starting him allows the team to get him six minutes at the start of each half against ideal opponents.

What’s more, if Valanciunas does prove an effective pressure release for the trapping, he could help get Lowry and DeRozan in a rhythm early. That’s appeared to be pretty important throughout the series (and playoffs as a whole), and while Biyombo has been terrific at home and brings a ton of energy to the Air Canada Centre, he can bring that energy off the bench just as effectively. That would also give the Lowry-and-bench unit some more time, and that’s a group that’s really been minimized with Biyombo starting (and may be a counter to Cleveland’s own deadly star-and-bench group).

It’s not that big a deal if he doesn’t start, of course. Biyombo has been great, and Thompson has often played in the second quarter to present another opportunity to deploy Valanciunas in an ideal spot. The Raptors can also just have Valanciunas chase Frye or Love, or cross-match, and hope the offensive gain outweighs the loss.

Otherwise, the rotation probably won’t change a great deal. The Raptors know what worked in Games 3 and 4, and they’ll probably roll with the same rotation, which means a few minutes for T.J. Ross and James Johnson, with the share being determined by game flow, minimal minutes as the starter for Scola, and Joseph will figure in pretty heavily if he’s playing well. Given how poorly a few players have played at times in this series, the exact minutes and rotations are tough to figure, but at this point it seems we know the 10 guys who will be involved, at least.

Check back before tip off to confirm the starters. UPDATE: Starters are the same.

Cavaliers updates
The Cavs are likewise healthy

Cavaliers projected rotation
PG: Kyrie Irving, Matthew Dellavedova, (Mo Williams)
SG: J.R. Smith, Iman Shumpert, (Dahntay Jones), (Jordan McRae)
SF: LeBron James, Richard Jefferson
PF: Kevin Love, (James Jones)
C: Tristan Thompson, Channing Frye, (Timofey Mozgov), (Sasha Kaun)

I’m not sure why the Cavs would tweak much here. If Valanciunas starts, they’ll go to Frye earlier. If he doesn’t, they may delay Frye’s entrance into the game in order to have him match up with Valanciunas. That is, assuming they like their offensive edge more than the loss on defense – Frye isn’t a bad post defender, but Valanciunas should be able to win that battle handily. Whenever Frye’s deployed, expect to see more of the Benchnik Termites, the James-and-reserves group that’s outscored Toronto by 30 points in 30 minutes in this series.

Check back for confirmation of the starters. UPDATE: Starters are the same.

Pre-game news and notes
*On trying to draw lessons from such a large blowout, Casey offered, “We showed the guy the level of play that Cleveland played with, and the level of intensity. We were trying but we weren’t trying. They were a step faster in everything they were doing…From that standpoint, there wasn’t anything redeeming from it.”

*”One point, 40 points, you never want to get demoralized like that, but it’s one game,” Casey said. “It’s about resiliency, bouncing back, coming back. Whether it’s us or them.” He still doesn’t know why the Raptors have been blown out so much, calling it a “mystery” and pointing to how the team has responded most times. “Talking about it isn’t going to do it,” in terms of coming out better for Game 6.

*”I think he has a chance in this league,” Casey said of James. I agree.

*”We’re gonna get out to a better start,” Ty Lue said of adjusting to the crowd’s impact from Games 3 and 4, particularly the inability to come back once down big. “This is a hostile environment. They play very well here.”

Assorted
*Here’s your Game 6 swag update:

Pretty good setup tonight.

A photo posted by Blake Murphy (@eblakemurphy) on

*Raekwon is performing at halftime!!

*This is the best Raptors-related Twitter exchange I can remember.

The line
Game 1: Cavaliers -10.5 (Cavaliers 115, Raptors 84)
Game 2: Cavaliers -11.5 (Cavaliers 108, Raptors 89)
Game 3: Cavaliers -5.5 (Raptors 99, Cavaliers 84)
Game 4: Cavaliers -6.5 (Raptors 105, Cavaliers 99)
Game 5: Cavaliers -11.5 (Cavaliers 116, Raptors 78)
Game 6: Cavaliers -6
Series: Cavaliers -2500 (96.2% implied win probability)

The Cavs hold steady at the line they’ve existed at for most of the series. It makes sense, but from a completely non-analytical perspective, it’s hard to see the Raptors not responding, as they have all playoffs long in these spots. Then again, Cleveland has looked absolutely unstoppable at times in this series, and there aren’t any clear and obvious answers for Toronto, particularly at the defensive end. I don’t know…I really don’t know. But I’m hopeful.

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