Fan Duel Toronto Raptors

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My 2016 NBA Draft rankings

Here's where I'm at ahead of Thursday.

Alright. It’s finally time. After weeks of attending draft workouts and playing catch-up with video scouting after the deep playoff run, I’m finally ready to release my official (!) rankings for the 2016 NBA Draft class.

As a bit of a note, I’m probably slightly less versed on the prospects than the last two seasons. But I’ve played catch-up well, I think. It’s just that in the last two seasons, I was the draft lead at theScore, and because the Raptors didn’t make as deep a run and the draft was more my full-time job than the Raptors, I allotted my time accordingly. I still watched a fair amount of college ball during the course of this season, and since the Raptors’ run ended I’ve been hustling to catch up through torrented games, highlight packages, and a lot of reading.

(The work of Draft Express, Chad Ford, Sam Vecenie, Kevin O’Connor, and Joshua Riddell is invaluable. If you’re curious, I ran regressions for my rankings against there’s, and I’m closest to DX and Vecenie, furthest from Ford, and in the middle for Riddell and O’Connor.)

For those curious, my process is basically as follows: I aggregate the top-100 rankings to create a base ranking (and determine an order in which I’ll try to catch up on guys – I also prioritized players the Raptors worked out, even though that’s only one part of the draft process for the team). From there, I’ll try to watch at least a couple of their games from in the season, and failing that, I’ll look for individual game highlight packages (I realize this isn’t ideal, but game torrents are often tough to come by). Next, I’ll read from the sources cited and try to go back and double-check anything that stands out as something I disagreed with or may have missed. Once I’m comfortable with a prospect, I’ll watch the DraftExpress videos (weaknesses first, always) – they’re the best resource, bar none, but I try to save it for last so I don’t simply trust their opinion as gospel.

Then I look at the updated, aggregated top 100, and adjust for my own personal taste. That personal taste generally skews toward “best player available,” specifically upside. My guiding philosophy for where the Raptors are is basically that the team is too good to reasonably expect someone to come in and contribute from Day One (the public generally overvalues the impact of rookies), and because there’s not a clear path to pushing the team to the next level right now, swinging for ceiling is the best approach for appreciably changing the team’s longer-term outlook. They’re not going to have a top-10 pick again anytime soon (we hope), and even though the free agent market may not have a lot of low-cost help-now options, I’d rather roll the dice on a player being a meaningful piece down the line than trying to slot someone in just to fill a role for 2016-17. That only comes into play sometimes, mind you, particularly at No. 9.

Anyway, those preferences are absolutely up for debate and just my opinion, so I’d imagine there will be some disagreement with the rankings, particularly for the earlier pick. I should also note that the rankings approximate my overall rankings (because I lean best talent/upside), but I created them with the Raptors in mind, so there may be instances of a prospect sliding a spot or two after losing a “tiebreaker” of sorts based on team context, particularly the later-draft point guards.

Enough preamble. What follows is my top 60, and then some tiers (basically, within a tier there’s less separation, and I wouldn’t begrudge you ranking within that table differently). I doubt I’ll have time to wade through comments for arguments/discussion today, but maybe if there are enough names people are curious about, I’ll throw up another post Thursday.

Overall Top 60

* – indicates # of publicly-acknowledged workouts with Raptors

My RankNameOut OfPositionAge
1Ben SimmonsLSUPF19
2Brandon IngramDukeSF18
3Kris DunnProvidencePG22
4Jaylen BrownCaliforniaSG19
5Dragan BenderCroatiaPF18
6Marquese ChrissWashingtonPF18
7Jamal MurrayKentuckySG19
8Buddy HieldOklahomaSG22
9Deyonta DavisMichigan StateC19
10Timothe LuwawuFranceSG21
11Skal Labissiere*KentuckyPF20
12Jakob Poeltl*UtahC20
13Wade Baldwin IVVanderbiltPG20
14Domantas Sabonis*GonzagaPF20
15Furkan KorkmazTurkeySG18
16DeAndre’ BembrySt. Joseph’sSF21
17Patrick McCaw*UNLVSG20
18Denzel ValentineMichigan StatePG22
19Taurean PrinceBaylorSF21
20Malachi Richardson*SyracuseSG20
21Juan HernangomezSpainPF20
22Ante ZizicCroatiaC19
23Malik BeasleyFlorida StateSG19
24Malcolm Brogdon*VirginiaSG23
25Tyler UlisKentuckyPG20
26Demetrius Jackson*Notre DamePG21
27Ivica Zubac*CroatiaC19
28Dejounte MurrayWashingtonSG19
29Damian Jones*VanderbiltC20
30Diamond Stone**MarylandC19
31Henry Ellenson*MarquettePF19
32Chinanu Onuaku*LouisvilleC19
33Brice Johnson*UNCPF21
34Cheick DialloKansasC19
35Gary Payton II*Oregon StateSG23
36Rade ZagoracSerbiaSF20
37Paul ZipserGermanyPF22
39Thon MakerCanadaPF19
39Isaia Cordinier*FranceSG19
40A.J. Hammons*PurdueC23
41Petr CornelieFrancePF20
42Guerschon Yabusele*FrancePF20
43Caris LeVertMichiganSG21
44Dorian Finney-Smith**FloridaPF23
45Pascal Siakam*New Mexico StatePF22
46Michael Gbinije*SyracusePG24
47Ben BentilProvidencePF21
48Robert Carter*MarylandPF22
49Georgios PapagiannisGreeceC18
50Kay FelderOaklandPG21
51Zhou QiChinaC20
52Jake Layman*MarylandPF22
53Joel BolomboyWichita StateC22
54Jarrod Uthoff*IowaPF23
55Stephen Zimmerman Jr.*UNLVC19
56Anthony BarberNC StatePG21
57Isaiah Cousins*OklahomaSG22
58Isaiah WhiteheadSeton HallSG21
59Wayne Selden Jr.KansasSG21
60Fred VanVleet*Wichita StatePG22

Top prospects by tiers

Tier 1

1Ben SimmonsLSUPF19
2Brandon IngramDukeSF18

Tier 2

3Kris DunnProvidencePG22
4Jaylen BrownCaliforniaSG19
5Dragan BenderCroatiaPF18
6Marquese ChrissWashingtonPF18
7Jamal MurrayKentuckySG19
8Buddy HieldOklahomaSG22

Tier 3

9Deyonta DavisMichigan StateC19
10Timothe LuwawuFranceSG21
11Skal LabissiereKentuckyPF20
12Jakob PoeltlUtahC20
13Wade Baldwin IVVanderbiltPG20
14Domantas SabonisGonzagaPF20
15Furkan KorkmazTurkeySG18

Tier 4

16DeAndre’ BembrySt. Joseph’sSF21
17Patrick McCawUNLVSG20
18Denzel ValentineMichigan StatePG22
19Taurean PrinceBaylorSF21
20Malachi RichardsonSyracuseSG20
21Juan HernangomezSpainPF20
22Ante ZizicCroatiaC19

Tier 5

23Malik BeasleyFlorida StateSG19
24Malcolm BrogdonVirginiaSG23
25Tyler UlisKentuckyPG20
26Demetrius JacksonNotre DamePG21
27Ivica ZubacCroatiaC19
28Dejounte MurrayWashingtonSG19
29Damian JonesVanderbiltC20
30Diamond StoneMarylandC19
31Henry EllensonMarquettePF19
32Chinanu OnuakuLouisvilleC19
33Brice JohnsonUNCPF21
34Cheick DialloKansasC19
35Gary Payton IIOregon StateSG23
36Rade ZagoracSerbiaSF20
37Paul ZipserGermanyPF22
39Thon MakerCanadaPF19
39Isaia CordinierFranceSG19
40A.J. HammonsPurdueC23
41Petr CornelieFrancePF20
42Guerschon YabuseleFrancePF20

Tier 6

43Caris LeVertMichiganSG21
44Dorian Finney-SmithFloridaPF23
45Pascal SiakamNew Mexico StatePF22
46Michael GbinijeSyracusePG24
47Ben BentilProvidencePF21
48Robert CarterMarylandPF22
49Georgios PapagiannisGreeceC18
50Kay FelderOaklandPG21

Tier 7

51Zhou QiChinaC20
52Jake LaymanMarylandPF22
53Joel BolomboyWichita StateC22
54Jarrod UthoffIowaPF23
55Stephen Zimmerman Jr.UNLVC19
56Anthony BarberNC StatePG21
57Isaiah CousinsOklahomaSG22
58Isaiah WhiteheadSeton HallSG21
59Wayne Selden Jr.KansasSG21
60Fred VanVleetWichita StatePG22