Alright. It’s finally time. After weeks of attending draft workouts and playing catch-up with video scouting after the deep playoff run, I’m finally ready to release my official (!) rankings for the 2016 NBA Draft class.
As a bit of a note, I’m probably slightly less versed on the prospects than the last two seasons. But I’ve played catch-up well, I think. It’s just that in the last two seasons, I was the draft lead at theScore, and because the Raptors didn’t make as deep a run and the draft was more my full-time job than the Raptors, I allotted my time accordingly. I still watched a fair amount of college ball during the course of this season, and since the Raptors’ run ended I’ve been hustling to catch up through torrented games, highlight packages, and a lot of reading.
(The work of Draft Express, Chad Ford, Sam Vecenie, Kevin O’Connor, and Joshua Riddell is invaluable. If you’re curious, I ran regressions for my rankings against there’s, and I’m closest to DX and Vecenie, furthest from Ford, and in the middle for Riddell and O’Connor.)
For those curious, my process is basically as follows: I aggregate the top-100 rankings to create a base ranking (and determine an order in which I’ll try to catch up on guys – I also prioritized players the Raptors worked out, even though that’s only one part of the draft process for the team). From there, I’ll try to watch at least a couple of their games from in the season, and failing that, I’ll look for individual game highlight packages (I realize this isn’t ideal, but game torrents are often tough to come by). Next, I’ll read from the sources cited and try to go back and double-check anything that stands out as something I disagreed with or may have missed. Once I’m comfortable with a prospect, I’ll watch the DraftExpress videos (weaknesses first, always) – they’re the best resource, bar none, but I try to save it for last so I don’t simply trust their opinion as gospel.
Then I look at the updated, aggregated top 100, and adjust for my own personal taste. That personal taste generally skews toward “best player available,” specifically upside. My guiding philosophy for where the Raptors are is basically that the team is too good to reasonably expect someone to come in and contribute from Day One (the public generally overvalues the impact of rookies), and because there’s not a clear path to pushing the team to the next level right now, swinging for ceiling is the best approach for appreciably changing the team’s longer-term outlook. They’re not going to have a top-10 pick again anytime soon (we hope), and even though the free agent market may not have a lot of low-cost help-now options, I’d rather roll the dice on a player being a meaningful piece down the line than trying to slot someone in just to fill a role for 2016-17. That only comes into play sometimes, mind you, particularly at No. 9.
Anyway, those preferences are absolutely up for debate and just my opinion, so I’d imagine there will be some disagreement with the rankings, particularly for the earlier pick. I should also note that the rankings approximate my overall rankings (because I lean best talent/upside), but I created them with the Raptors in mind, so there may be instances of a prospect sliding a spot or two after losing a “tiebreaker” of sorts based on team context, particularly the later-draft point guards.
Enough preamble. What follows is my top 60, and then some tiers (basically, within a tier there’s less separation, and I wouldn’t begrudge you ranking within that table differently). I doubt I’ll have time to wade through comments for arguments/discussion today, but maybe if there are enough names people are curious about, I’ll throw up another post Thursday.
Overall Top 60
* – indicates # of publicly-acknowledged workouts with Raptors
My Rank | Name | Out Of | Position | Age |
1 | Ben Simmons | LSU | PF | 19 |
2 | Brandon Ingram | Duke | SF | 18 |
3 | Kris Dunn | Providence | PG | 22 |
4 | Jaylen Brown | California | SG | 19 |
5 | Dragan Bender | Croatia | PF | 18 |
6 | Marquese Chriss | Washington | PF | 18 |
7 | Jamal Murray | Kentucky | SG | 19 |
8 | Buddy Hield | Oklahoma | SG | 22 |
9 | Deyonta Davis | Michigan State | C | 19 |
10 | Timothe Luwawu | France | SG | 21 |
11 | Skal Labissiere* | Kentucky | PF | 20 |
12 | Jakob Poeltl* | Utah | C | 20 |
13 | Wade Baldwin IV | Vanderbilt | PG | 20 |
14 | Domantas Sabonis* | Gonzaga | PF | 20 |
15 | Furkan Korkmaz | Turkey | SG | 18 |
16 | DeAndre’ Bembry | St. Joseph’s | SF | 21 |
17 | Patrick McCaw* | UNLV | SG | 20 |
18 | Denzel Valentine | Michigan State | PG | 22 |
19 | Taurean Prince | Baylor | SF | 21 |
20 | Malachi Richardson* | Syracuse | SG | 20 |
21 | Juan Hernangomez | Spain | PF | 20 |
22 | Ante Zizic | Croatia | C | 19 |
23 | Malik Beasley | Florida State | SG | 19 |
24 | Malcolm Brogdon* | Virginia | SG | 23 |
25 | Tyler Ulis | Kentucky | PG | 20 |
26 | Demetrius Jackson* | Notre Dame | PG | 21 |
27 | Ivica Zubac* | Croatia | C | 19 |
28 | Dejounte Murray | Washington | SG | 19 |
29 | Damian Jones* | Vanderbilt | C | 20 |
30 | Diamond Stone** | Maryland | C | 19 |
31 | Henry Ellenson* | Marquette | PF | 19 |
32 | Chinanu Onuaku* | Louisville | C | 19 |
33 | Brice Johnson* | UNC | PF | 21 |
34 | Cheick Diallo | Kansas | C | 19 |
35 | Gary Payton II* | Oregon State | SG | 23 |
36 | Rade Zagorac | Serbia | SF | 20 |
37 | Paul Zipser | Germany | PF | 22 |
39 | Thon Maker | Canada | PF | 19 |
39 | Isaia Cordinier* | France | SG | 19 |
40 | A.J. Hammons* | Purdue | C | 23 |
41 | Petr Cornelie | France | PF | 20 |
42 | Guerschon Yabusele* | France | PF | 20 |
43 | Caris LeVert | Michigan | SG | 21 |
44 | Dorian Finney-Smith** | Florida | PF | 23 |
45 | Pascal Siakam* | New Mexico State | PF | 22 |
46 | Michael Gbinije* | Syracuse | PG | 24 |
47 | Ben Bentil | Providence | PF | 21 |
48 | Robert Carter* | Maryland | PF | 22 |
49 | Georgios Papagiannis | Greece | C | 18 |
50 | Kay Felder | Oakland | PG | 21 |
51 | Zhou Qi | China | C | 20 |
52 | Jake Layman* | Maryland | PF | 22 |
53 | Joel Bolomboy | Wichita State | C | 22 |
54 | Jarrod Uthoff* | Iowa | PF | 23 |
55 | Stephen Zimmerman Jr.* | UNLV | C | 19 |
56 | Anthony Barber | NC State | PG | 21 |
57 | Isaiah Cousins* | Oklahoma | SG | 22 |
58 | Isaiah Whitehead | Seton Hall | SG | 21 |
59 | Wayne Selden Jr. | Kansas | SG | 21 |
60 | Fred VanVleet* | Wichita State | PG | 22 |
Top prospects by tiers
Tier 1
1 | Ben Simmons | LSU | PF | 19 |
2 | Brandon Ingram | Duke | SF | 18 |
Tier 2
3 | Kris Dunn | Providence | PG | 22 |
4 | Jaylen Brown | California | SG | 19 |
5 | Dragan Bender | Croatia | PF | 18 |
6 | Marquese Chriss | Washington | PF | 18 |
7 | Jamal Murray | Kentucky | SG | 19 |
8 | Buddy Hield | Oklahoma | SG | 22 |
Tier 3
9 | Deyonta Davis | Michigan State | C | 19 |
10 | Timothe Luwawu | France | SG | 21 |
11 | Skal Labissiere | Kentucky | PF | 20 |
12 | Jakob Poeltl | Utah | C | 20 |
13 | Wade Baldwin IV | Vanderbilt | PG | 20 |
14 | Domantas Sabonis | Gonzaga | PF | 20 |
15 | Furkan Korkmaz | Turkey | SG | 18 |
Tier 4
16 | DeAndre’ Bembry | St. Joseph’s | SF | 21 |
17 | Patrick McCaw | UNLV | SG | 20 |
18 | Denzel Valentine | Michigan State | PG | 22 |
19 | Taurean Prince | Baylor | SF | 21 |
20 | Malachi Richardson | Syracuse | SG | 20 |
21 | Juan Hernangomez | Spain | PF | 20 |
22 | Ante Zizic | Croatia | C | 19 |
Tier 5
23 | Malik Beasley | Florida State | SG | 19 |
24 | Malcolm Brogdon | Virginia | SG | 23 |
25 | Tyler Ulis | Kentucky | PG | 20 |
26 | Demetrius Jackson | Notre Dame | PG | 21 |
27 | Ivica Zubac | Croatia | C | 19 |
28 | Dejounte Murray | Washington | SG | 19 |
29 | Damian Jones | Vanderbilt | C | 20 |
30 | Diamond Stone | Maryland | C | 19 |
31 | Henry Ellenson | Marquette | PF | 19 |
32 | Chinanu Onuaku | Louisville | C | 19 |
33 | Brice Johnson | UNC | PF | 21 |
34 | Cheick Diallo | Kansas | C | 19 |
35 | Gary Payton II | Oregon State | SG | 23 |
36 | Rade Zagorac | Serbia | SF | 20 |
37 | Paul Zipser | Germany | PF | 22 |
39 | Thon Maker | Canada | PF | 19 |
39 | Isaia Cordinier | France | SG | 19 |
40 | A.J. Hammons | Purdue | C | 23 |
41 | Petr Cornelie | France | PF | 20 |
42 | Guerschon Yabusele | France | PF | 20 |
Tier 6
43 | Caris LeVert | Michigan | SG | 21 |
44 | Dorian Finney-Smith | Florida | PF | 23 |
45 | Pascal Siakam | New Mexico State | PF | 22 |
46 | Michael Gbinije | Syracuse | PG | 24 |
47 | Ben Bentil | Providence | PF | 21 |
48 | Robert Carter | Maryland | PF | 22 |
49 | Georgios Papagiannis | Greece | C | 18 |
50 | Kay Felder | Oakland | PG | 21 |
Tier 7
51 | Zhou Qi | China | C | 20 |
52 | Jake Layman | Maryland | PF | 22 |
53 | Joel Bolomboy | Wichita State | C | 22 |
54 | Jarrod Uthoff | Iowa | PF | 23 |
55 | Stephen Zimmerman Jr. | UNLV | C | 19 |
56 | Anthony Barber | NC State | PG | 21 |
57 | Isaiah Cousins | Oklahoma | SG | 22 |
58 | Isaiah Whitehead | Seton Hall | SG | 21 |
59 | Wayne Selden Jr. | Kansas | SG | 21 |
60 | Fred VanVleet | Wichita State | PG | 22 |