July 4 open thread: Kevin Durant chooses Golden State

Through two days of the insane free-agent bonanza of The New Cap Era in the NBA, the Toronto Raptors have mostly been quiet. They re-signed DeMar DeRozan and watched Bismack Biyombo leave, entirely expected moves. And, entirely as expected, they’ve been quiet otherwise. With limited cap resources and the need to potentially leverage the trade market to clear space or land an asset – a trade market that doesn’t open up until July 7 – the Raptors were always likely to be quiet this weekend.

Still, the stagnancy is wearing on some. I understand the impatience, but this is how things were always likely to play out. And it’s July 4, with some big dominoes still in play.

Some notes, and the Durant domino

*The Raptors will receive an estimated $2.5M in luxury tax pay-outs from the 2015-16 season.

*The NBA confirmed its salary cap is set at $94.143M for next season, with a $113.287M luxury tax, $117.287M apron level, and $84.729M floor. These are all almost identical to the estimates we’ve been using in our analysis here, and it means DeMar DeRozan’s first-year salary could come in as high as $26.54M. I have it estimated at $24M below, as that’s the amount at which he’d hit $138M total with the maximum allowable annual raise. There are a number of ways the Raptors could structure it depending on the exact total, his preferences, their preferences, and so on.

*Teams have spent an estimated $2.82B over 56 contracts. Teams as a whole are still about $179M below cap floors, with 80 roster spots still open. There’s also about $468M in cap space, ignoring cap holds and exceptions teams can use to exceed the cap.

*That all means there’s a lot left to come. Everything kind of felt frozen yesterday, and with good reason: Kevin Durant will make his decision at some point today. That’s going to have a huge trickle-down effect. It effects, among others, Harrison Barnes and Pau Gasol, could kick off the trade market if a team needs to shed space, sets up the East/West power balance, and determine the pecking order for “veteran discount ring-chasing teams.” Durant isn’t signing in Toronto, but with the market held up a little bit waiting for his decision, the announcement could help get the ball rolling on some other things for the Raptors (not that I expect them to be particularly busy or anything).

Plus, once he announces on The Players Tribune that he’s signed a one-year deal to remain in OKC, we can start the #KDtoToronto2017 watch.

UPDATE: Durant is going to the Warriors on a 1-and-1 deal.

From a Raptors perspective, the big thing here is that he stayed in the West. The Boston Celtics have improved dramatically, but Durant eschewing them for the Warriors is a positive for Toronto (though it means Amir Johnson is less likely to hit the market). Durant opting against the Spurs also makes them Pau Gasol’s most likely destination, means Harrison Barnes is likely to land in Dallas, and puts Andrew Bogut on the trading block (not Andre Iguodala, as I had kind of hoped).

The Spurs are lasered in now on signing Pau Gasol, sources say, which obviously becomes even more crucial if Tim Duncan elects to walk away

— Marc Stein (@ESPNSteinLine) July 4, 2016

And if Russell Westbrook goes on the block? Take literally anything you want from me. Including my pants.

Resources

Here’s a quick run-down of some things that may be helpful:

*The full salary cap primer, which explains a lot of why the Raptors have been quiet.

*As a quick refresher, this is what the Raptors’ cap sheet looks at right this second:

(Note that Eric Pincus and Albert Random have both amended DeRozan’s cap hold from $15.525M to $15.225M, and I trust their crack at it more than mine, so I’ve followed suit.)

*The follow-up to that, a mailbag that hopefully answers a lot of your questions about the primer.

*A look at how the contracts given out on Day One compare to the Raptors’ deals. And a look at what the Mid-Level Exception market appears to be (or appears not to be, at least).

*To help calibrate with the new cap money, here’s a chart comparing what different salaries will take up in the cap this year compared to last year. Basically, you need to change your benchmark for what $10 million means, or how valuable an asset on a cheap (looking at you, Patrick Patterson) or rookie deal is.

Raptors Rumors

*DeMar DeRozan is back on a five-year deal estimated to be between $137.5M and $145M.

*Bismack Biyombo is gone to Orlando on a four-year deal estimated to be worth $72M.

*The Raptors met with Ryan Anderson, who has since been paid $80M over four years by Houston. They also may or may not have met with Meyers Leonard.

*The Raptors are interested in Pau Gasol, but that could be a complicated chase. Gasol might command $18-22M, which complicates things further.

UPDATE: NEVERMIND. Gasol’s off to the Spurs.

*Any lingering Nerlens Noel interest has dissipated.

*The Raptors have “serious interest” in Dewayne Dedmon.

Reported agreements/close – Friday to Sunday

(Note: I was keeping track source by source originally but lost the handle, so I’ll refer you to the fine work of CBS Sports or USA TODAY Sports for more.)

Re-sign

Mike Conley – Memphis – 5 years, $153M (full max)
DeMar DeRozan – Toronto – 5 years, $137.5-139M (90.9% of max)
Andre Drummond – Detroit – 5 years, $128-130M (full max)
Bradley Beal – Washington – 5 years, $128M (full max)
Nicolas Batum – Charlotte – 5 years, $120M (78.5% of max)
Hassan Whiteside – Miami – 4 years, $98.6M (full max)
Evan Fournier – Orlando – 5 years, $85M
Kent Bazemore – Atlanta – 4 years, $70M
Marvin Williams – Charlotte – 4 years, $54.5M
Jordan Clarkson – L.A. Lakers – 4 years, $50M
Jamal Crawford – L.A. Clippers – 3 years, $42M
Dwight Powell – Dallas – 4 years, $37M
Austin Rivers – L.A. Clippers – 3 years, $35M
Darrell Arthur – Denver – 3 years, $23M
Wesley Johnson – L.A. Clippers – 3 years, $18M
Tarik Black – L.A. Lakers – 2 years, $12.9M
Deron Williams – Dallas – 1 year, $10M
Tomas Satorasnky – Washington – 3 years, $9M (was their 2012 2nd-round pick)

New homes

Al Horford – Boston – 4 years, $113M
Harrison Barnes – Dallas – 4 years, $94M (agreement to sign offer sheet) (full max)
Chandler Parsons – Memphis – 4 years, $94M (full max)
Ryan Anderson – Houston – 4 years, $80M
Luol Deng – L.A. Lakers – 4 years, $72M
Joakim Noah – New York – 4 years, $72M
Bismack Biyombo – Orlando a- 4 years, $72M
Dwight Howard – Atlanta – 3 years, $70.5M
Evan Turner – Portland – 4 years, $70M
Ian Mahinmi – Washington – 4 years, $64M
Timofey Mozgov – L.A. Lakers – 4 years, $64M
Eric Gordon – Houston – 4 years, $53M
Solomon Hill – New Orleans – 4 years, $52M
Tyler Johnson – Brooklyn – 4 years, $50M (offer sheet)
Courtney Lee – New York – 4 years, $48M
Jon Leuer – Detroit – 4 years, $42M
Matthew Dellavedova – Milwaukee – 4 years, $38.4M (offer sheet, Cavs won’t match)
Jeremy Lin – Brooklyn – 3 years, $36M
E’Twaun Moore – New Orleans – 4 years, $34M
Jared Dudley – Phoenix – 3 years, $30M
Al Jefferson – Indiana – 3 years, $30M
Mirza Teletovic – Milwaukee – 3 years, $30M
D.J. Augustin – Orlando – 4 years, $29M
Rajon Rondo – Chicago – 2 years, $28M
Jerryd Bayless – Philadelphia – 3 years, $27M
Andrew Nicholson – Washington – 4 years, $26M
Arron Afflalo – Sacramento – 2 years, $25M
Garrett Temple – Sacramento – 3 years, $24M
Joe Johnson – Utah – 2 years, $22M
Cold Aldrich – Minnesota – 3 years, $22M
Trevor Booker – Brooklyn – 2 years, $18M
Ish Smith – Detroit – 3 years, $18M
Anthony Tolliver – Sacramento – 2 years, $16M
Jeff Green – Orlando – 1 year, $15M
Matt Barnes – Sacramento – 2 years, $12M
James Ennis – Memphis – 2 years, $6M
Justin Hamilton – Brooklyn – 2 years, $6M
Malcolm Delaney – Atlanta – 2 years, $1.5M

Trades
Utah sending Trey Burke to Washington for a 2021 2nd-round pick

Remaining free agents

Here’s an updated table of remaining free agents and their most common positions in 2015-16, as explained in more detail here.

Reported agreements/close – Monday

Re-sign

Luc Mbah a Moute – L.A. Clippers – 2 years, $4.5M
Lance Thomas – New York – TBA

New homes

Kevin Durant – Golden State – 2 years, $54.3M
Pau Gasol – San Antonio – 2 years, $30M
Ramon Sessions – Charlotte – 2 years, $12.5M
Sergio Rodriguez – Philadelphia – 1 year, $8M
Brandon Jennings – New York -1 year, $5M
Roy Hibbert – Charlotte – 1 year, $5M
Zaza Pachulia – Golden State – 1 year, $2.9M

Trades

Golden State sending Andrew Bogut to Dallas for a future 2nd-round pick

Waived

Duje Dukan, Caron Butler – Sacramento