July 6 open thread: ‘Everyone’ did not get better

(Programming note: The open threads will only run through July 7, when deals can become official. There just won’t be enough news/movement after that to warrant them, I don’t think, and Summer League begins July 8.)

Alright. We’re through the big stuff. Most of the top free agents are off the board, and the trickle-down from Kevin Durant signing in Golden State is starting to materialize, and even settle. Unfortunately, the Warriors thinning themselves out theoretically takes a few potential ring-chasers off the market, and we’re still left to wonder exactly what type of players may fit the Raptors’ financial situation.

Today and tomorrow should be instructive. The moratorium is lifted at 12:01 later tonight/early tomorrow, which means teams are free to “officially” make moves, which could also open up the trade market. It will also tell us if the Raptors are opting to maintain cap space (delaying DeMar DeRozan’s signing) or locking in to the trade route and the mid-level exception (in either case, they’d also have a second, smaller exception).

And yeah, I get why a lot of you are impatient. But it mostly seems unfounded, unless your expectations were too high or you haven’t been reading here. The Raptors’ offseason was always more likely to be quiet than noisy. DeRozan was always likely to stay, Bismack Biymbo was always likely to go, and barring the market proving far more reasonable than anticipated (see below), it was always going to make sense for the team to be patient for the market to settle and the trade market to establish itself. Yeah, it sucks having been on-call 24/7 for a week to have little news, and it sucks to have missed out on Boris Diaw, one of my favorite players and people in the NBA. But this was the high-likelihood path, with the Raptors staying patient with their limited cap space and exceptions, banking on further internal development and the trade market – now or during the seaosn – to fortify the core.

Meanwhile, yes, other teams have been busy. “Everyone” did not get better, though, as has been tweeted at me multiple times. Last year, NBA teams combined to win 1,230 games. In 2016-17, they will win 1,230 games. Unless the Raptors are going to win 27 games or fewer, evenly distributing those extra losses among their competitors, everyone else did not get better. The NBA is a zero-sum game. The Raptors appear likely to take a step back next year, at least in the regular season, which is exactly what I would have told you was likely when the playoffs ended. Boston got better, Cleveland is Cleveland, and some other East teams have taken some gambles that may or may not pay off.

It’s not a disaster. The Raptors didn’t have a ton of cap flexibility and the trade market is only just starting. Even if they’re quiet, that was probably alwayrus going to happen. If you’re mad, that anger should have manifested itself long before this week, because everything’s gone mostly as predicted, short of diving in to the Tarik Black part of the market. Please, though, tell me more about how the general manager doesn’t want to win, or how the Raptors erred in extending Terrence Ross and Jonas Valanciunas to below-market deals early even though their cap holds would have rendered the additional bit of cap space from waiting nearly irrelevant in this market, or how the organization is cheap because they won’t violate the salary cap with moves the leagues would veto, anyway.

End rant.

Some notes, and the MLE market

*The NBA confirmed its salary cap is set at $94.143M for next season, with a $113.287M luxury tax, $117.287M apron level, and $84.729M floor. These are all almost identical to the estimates we’ve been using in our analysis here, and it means DeMar DeRozan’s first-year salary could come in as high as $26.54M. I have it estimated at $24M below, as that’s the amount at which he’d hit $138M total with the maximum allowable annual raise. There are a number of ways the Raptors could structure it depending on the exact total, his preferences, their preferences, and so on.

*Teams have spent an estimated $3.06B over 72 contracts. Teams as a whole are still about $133M below cap floors, with 78 roster spots still open. There’s also about $381M in potential cap space, ignoring cap holds and exceptions teams can use to exceed the cap.

*So, yeah, it’s still tough to figure who the Raptors might be able to go after with their estimated $5.7 million in cap space and $2.9-million room exception or the $5.6-million mid-level exception and the $2.2-million bi-annual exception. Here’s a look at what players have signed for less than $6.5 million annually, to give a feel for the player type who’s presently available without shedding salary.

Andrew Nicholson – Washington – 4 years, $26M
Ish Smith – Detroit – 3 years, $18M
Wesley Johnson – L.A. Clippers – 3 years, $18M
Jason Smith – Washington – 3 years, $16M
Tarik Black – L.A. Lakers – 2 years, $12.9M
Ramon Sessions – Charlotte – 2 years, $12.5M
Matt Barnes – Sacramento – 2 years, $12M
James Ennis – Memphis – 2 years, $6M
Justin Hamilton – Brooklyn – 2 years, $6M
Seth Curry – Dallas – 2 years, $6M
Mindaugas Kizminskas – New York – 2 years, $6M
Brandon Jennings – New York – 1 year, $5M
Roy Hibbert – Charlotte – 1 year, $5M
Luc Mbah a Moute – L.A. Clippers – 2 years, $4.5M
Zaza Pachulia – Golden State – 1 year, $2.9M
David West – Golden State – 1 year, $1.55M
Malcolm Delaney – Atlanta – 2 years, $1.5M

That’s a mixed bag, to say the least. But the market seems to have settled down just a bit, and so maybe the Raptors’ early patience will pay off in the coming days. It’s just really tough to gauge what kind of player might land in that range.

Resources

Here’s a quick run-down of some things that may be helpful:

*The full salary cap primer, which explains a lot of why the Raptors have been quiet.

*As a quick refresher, this is what the Raptors’ cap sheet looks at right this second:

(Note that Eric Pincus and Albert Random have both amended DeRozan’s cap hold from $15.525M to $15.225M, and I trust their crack at it more than mine, so I’ve followed suit.)

*The follow-up to that, a mailbag that hopefully answers a lot of your questions about the primer.

*A look at how the contracts given out on Day One compare to the Raptors’ deals. And a look at what the Mid-Level Exception market appears to be (or appears not to be, at least).

*To help calibrate with the new cap money, here’s a chart comparing what different salaries will take up in the cap this year compared to last year. Basically, you need to change your benchmark for what $10 million means, or how valuable an asset on a cheap (looking at you, Patrick Patterson) or rookie deal is.

Raptors Rumors

*DeMar DeRozan is back on a five-year deal estimated to be between $137.5M and $145M.

*Bismack Biyombo is gone to Orlando on a four-year deal estimated to be worth $72M.

*The Raptors met with Ryan Anderson, who has since been paid $80M over four years by Houston. They also may or may not have met with Meyers Leonard.

*The Raptors are interested in Pau Gasol, but that could be a complicated chase. Gasol might command $18-22M, which complicates things further. Gasol’s off to the Spurs, anyway.

*Any lingering Nerlens Noel interest has dissipated.

*The Raptors have “serious interest” in Dewayne Dedmon.

Reported agreements/close – Friday to Monday

(Note: I was keeping track source by source originally but lost the handle, so I’ll refer you to the fine work of CBS Sports or USA TODAY Sports for more.)

Re-sign

Mike Conley – Memphis – 5 years, $153M (full max)
DeMar DeRozan – Toronto – 5 years, $137.5-139M (90.9% of max)
Andre Drummond – Detroit – 5 years, $128-130M (full max)
Bradley Beal – Washington – 5 years, $128M (full max)
Nicolas Batum – Charlotte – 5 years, $120M (78.5% of max)
Hassan Whiteside – Miami – 4 years, $98.6M (full max)
Evan Fournier – Orlando – 5 years, $85M
Kent Bazemore – Atlanta – 4 years, $70M
Marvin Williams – Charlotte – 4 years, $54.5M
Jordan Clarkson – L.A. Lakers – 4 years, $50M
Jamal Crawford – L.A. Clippers – 3 years, $42M
Dirk Nowitzki – Dallas – 2 years, $40M
Dwight Powell – Dallas – 4 years, $37M
Austin Rivers – L.A. Clippers – 3 years, $35M
Lance Thomas – New York – 4 years, $27.1M
Darrell Arthur – Denver – 3 years, $23M
Wesley Johnson – L.A. Clippers – 3 years, $18M
Tarik Black – L.A. Lakers – 2 years, $12.9M
Deron Williams – Dallas – 1 year, $10M
Tomas Satorasnky – Washington – 3 years, $9M (was their 2012 2nd-round pick)
Willy Hernangomez – New York – Multi-year deal TBA (was their 2015 2nd-round pick)
Luc Mbah a Moute – L.A. Clippers – 2 years, $4.5M

New homes

Al Horford – Boston – 4 years, $113M
Harrison Barnes – Dallas – 4 years, $94M (agreement to sign offer sheet) (full max)
Chandler Parsons – Memphis – 4 years, $94M (full max)
Ryan Anderson – Houston – 4 years, $80M
Luol Deng – L.A. Lakers – 4 years, $72M
Joakim Noah – New York – 4 years, $72M
Bismack Biyombo – Orlando – 4 years, $72M
Dwight Howard – Atlanta – 3 years, $70.5M
Evan Turner – Portland – 4 years, $70M
Ian Mahinmi – Washington – 4 years, $64M
Timofey Mozgov – L.A. Lakers – 4 years, $64M
Kevin Durant – Golden State – 2 years, $54.3M
Eric Gordon – Houston – 4 years, $53M
Solomon Hill – New Orleans – 4 years, $52M
Tyler Johnson – Brooklyn – 4 years, $50M (offer sheet)
Courtney Lee – New York – 4 years, $48M
Jon Leuer – Detroit – 4 years, $42M
Matthew Dellavedova – Milwaukee – 4 years, $38.4M (offer sheet, Cavs won’t match)
Jeremy Lin – Brooklyn – 3 years, $36M
E’Twaun Moore – New Orleans – 4 years, $34M
Pau Gasol – San Antonio – 2 years, $30M
Jared Dudley – Phoenix – 3 years, $30M
Al Jefferson – Indiana – 3 years, $30M
Mirza Teletovic – Milwaukee – 3 years, $30M
D.J. Augustin – Orlando – 4 years, $29M
Rajon Rondo – Chicago – 2 years, $28M
Jerryd Bayless – Philadelphia – 3 years, $27M
Andrew Nicholson – Washington – 4 years, $26M
Arron Afflalo – Sacramento – 2 years, $25M
Garrett Temple – Sacramento – 3 years, $24M
Joe Johnson – Utah – 2 years, $22M
Cold Aldrich – Minnesota – 3 years, $22M
Trevor Booker – Brooklyn – 2 years, $18M
Ish Smith – Detroit – 3 years, $18M
Gerald Henderson – Philadelphia – 2 years, $18M
Jason Smith – Washington – 3 years, $16M
Anthony Tolliver – Sacramento – 2 years, $16M
Jeff Green – Orlando – 1 year, $15M
Ramon Sessions – Charlotte – 2 years, $12.5M
Matt Barnes – Sacramento – 2 years, $12M
Sergio Rodriguez – Philadelphia – 1 year, $8M
James Ennis – Memphis – 2 years, $6M
Justin Hamilton – Brooklyn – 2 years, $6M
Seth Curry – Dallas – 2 years, $6M
Mindaugas Kizminskas – New York – 2 years, $6M
Brandon Jennings – New York -1 year, $5M
Roy Hibbert – Charlotte – 1 year, $5M
Zaza Pachulia – Golden State – 1 year, $2.9M
David West – Golden State – 1 year, $1.55M
Malcolm Delaney – Atlanta – 2 years, $1.5M

Trades
Utah sending Trey Burke to Washington for a 2021 2nd-round pick
Golden State sending Andrew Bogut to Dallas for a future 2nd-round pick
Orlando sending Shabazz Napier to Portland for cash
San Antonio sending Boris Diaw to Utah for the rights to Olivier Hanlan (these are tears I’m crying)

Waived

Duje Dukan, Caron Butler – Sacramento

Remaining free agents

Here’s an updated table of remaining free agents and their most common positions in 2015-16, as explained in more detail here.

Reported agreements/close -Tuesday

Re-sign

New homes
Brandon Rush – Minnesota – 1 year, $3.5M
Nene – Houston – 1 year, $2.9M

Trades
Dallas sending Jeremy Evans and cash to Indiana (likely for a future protected 2nd-round pick)