Fan Duel Toronto Raptors

Raptors take a chance with Jared Sullinger

The thickly insulated Ohio State product has arrived in TO. Will it pay off?

The search for a power forward might just be over for Masai Ujiri and the Toronto Raptors, as it was reported yesterday that former Boston Celtic Jared Sullinger has signed a one-year deal with the Toronto Raptors for about $6 million. The deal, a long awaited one for Raptors fans, solidifies an obvious hole coming into the off-season at the power forward/centre spots, in the wake of losing Bismack Biyombo to the Orlando Magic in free agency.

Sullinger’s qualifying offer was renounced by the Celtics on Sunday night, making him a free agent in the open market, and Toronto struck quickly to retain his services. While Sullinger was a capable big-man, letting go of the 4th year pro made sense for Boston on paper given their overload at the 4/5 spots, and their recent signing of marquee free agent Al Horford.

For Raptors fans, the signing sure seems exciting given it’s the first real decision made by Masai Ujiri this off-season other than his draft picks. But on some level, this really just seems somewhat typical; typical of Masai Ujiri to once again sign a low-risk, under-the-radar player big man, written off by another team.

Taking the flyer

2 years ago, it was Tyler Hansbrough. Last year, it was Bismack Biyombo. And this year, it’s Jared Sullinger. There’s a common and increasingly noticeable theme underlying all of those transactions – and it’s one we’ve come to grown accustomed to with Masai. Take the flyer, and hope for the best. And worst case, rely on somebody else. By “flyer” we obviously don’t mean the Vince Carter of the bunch, but rather the “might-as-well” chance that Ujiri so often takes. By giving small amounts of money (and over relatively short guaranteed periods) to players with obvious levels of talent or at one time, potential, Ujiri has made an art out of getting the most out of a roster. And usually, not always, it pays off (at least in the short-term).

Think about it this way – best case, Sullinger carves out a great niche in the Raptors roster, becomes a starting 4 and commands top dollar next year as a free-agent (i.e. the Bismack Biyombo situation). And worst case, it’s $6M committed for one year (less than 7% of your cap) to a guy that at least on paper seems to fill a noticeable void. Not bad.

2015/2016 Season and Playoffs

For the immediate reaction, in-depth analysis regarding fit on the roster and general strengths/weaknesses of Sullinger, make sure you also check out Blake’s reaction piece from yesterday. For the purposes of this piece, I’ll stick to the basic stats that are likely going to tell Sullinger’s Raptor story.

Fans might be quick to forget that Jared Sullinger was one of the most sought-after draft selections in the 2012 NBA draft (projected to go as high as first overall for a large chunk of the NCAA season), before his stock fell drastically due to rumoured back issues he was facing at the time. With a big body like that (I’ll side-step the Jared subway jokes), it was understandable that most teams were apprehensive to select the 2-time AP All-American from Ohio State. But that year, Boston took the flyer and went with Sullinger with the 21st overall selection, with the hopes that he could overcome the back issues and deliver on his draft-day potential.

The 2015/2016 regular season was an up-and-down one for Sullinger, who contributed early and often in the season, but had a forgettable playoff stretch to say the least. Sullinger, who posted regular season averages of 10.3 ppg, and 8.3 rpg in about 24 minutes of action saw those figures drop to 5.2, 4.5 and 14 respectively during the Celtics brief post-season run. His shooting also dropped off considerably (44% to 31%).

Sullinger regressed slightly from a scoring perspective in 15/16 as compared to his earlier years (largely due to Boston becoming a better team last year), but improved his rebounding numbers. He’s shown the ability throughout his career to use his size to his advantage defensively (at least in one-on-one scenarios) and on the glass – two areas that will prove themselves to be invaluable come playoff time. We might’ve lost Biyombo’s inhuman rebounding abilities to the Magic, but to get Sullinger is a great deal for the Raptors – the guy’s had 20+ rebounding nights multiple times in the past. Not to mention, he’s 20th in the league in rebounding % (rebounds obtained by a player, as a percentage of total rebounds available during their time on court). And while that’s a drop-off from Biyombo who was 11th in that same category, it certainly doesn’t hurt that JV is 6th.

The areas I’d be worried about with Sullinger would be his team-defensive intuitiveness, ability to defend pick-and-rolls, and closing out effectively on shooters. It’s not that Sullinger absolutely can’t defend outside the post, but in situations requiring mobility, it’s difficult to place reliance on a 260-pound 6’-9” power forward to do the dirty work. That’s especially true given he’d be playing alongside JV, who’s not exactly the most mobile himself. But, as Blake mentions in his piece, the Raptors won 56 games with Luis Scola (not much faster than Sullinger) starting alongside JV. So, perhaps we’re just overthinking all of this?

That could be true, but another year of banking on monster games from Lowry and DeRozan in the backcourt just doesn’t seem like the answer – that game plan might work from game-to-game in the regular season, but in the post-season, it’s a balanced team attack that is more likely to wear down opponents. While the Raptors were able to get away on most nights with sub-par shooting and defense from Scola, it’s likely not to last for large chunks of the regular season when teams game plan more effectively for Lowry and DeRozan, and especially in the playoffs when they’re totally locked-in to the scoring duo.

Shooting the 3

A key way in which Sullinger can contribute to a more balanced offense would be with his three-point stroke, which Raptors fans might remember from some of their past meetings against the Celtics. But surprisingly, Sullinger only shoots it at around a 28% clip – that’s DeMar DeRozan level, and quite honestly won’t cut it. So, I encourage all Raptors fans to please avoid using the phrase “3-and-D” until this guy can prove he can shoot it at least with 33% accuracy.

Having said that, it’s nice to know that even if Patterson is sitting down, the Raptors will have at least one other big that can stretch the floor if defenses make that shot available. I’m not saying it will happen but if Sullinger can somehow become even somewhat effective as a three-point shooter, it adds a completely new dynamic to the Raptors offense who can play multiple lineups with a 3-point shooting big man. That’s a massive asset to have, especially if Casey plans on using Sullinger in small-ball lineups. Not to mention, when Patterson plays heavy minutes, his 3-point efficiency goes way down. Now, adding Sullinger is doubly advantageous as it allows Patterson to rest and be more efficient, while simultaneously getting production from Sullinger.

Lastly, as we saw from the Cleveland series in the playoffs, when Lowry and DeRozan are trapped in the back court by opposing defenses, it’s usually Patterson and/or Carroll that benefit on the first pass out of the trap/double-team. Sullinger is likely to also be a beneficary in such scenarios, and if he’s able (or Patterson) to shoot when asked to do so, it makes the Raptors that much more unstoppable on offense.

I’ll say it again though – all of these arguments rest on Sullinger’s ability to improve his stroke at least marginally; and the jury is still out on that.

In Summary…

If I had to give this deal a yay or nay, I’d say yay, but not with a great level of confidence. I like the deal because it’s cheap, low risk, and fills an immediate need with a young player. Reasons I don’t like the deal include Sullinger’s weight, defensive mobility, his deceptively poor shooting, and his lack of impact during last year’s playoffs.

All things considered, I still like the deal for one good reason (probably could say this about most of Ujiri’s decisions): the degree of potential upside is higher than the potential downside. So what the heck – why not take the flyer?