Olympic basketball has arrived. Qualification tournaments have been played, the exhibition games are behind us – it’s now time for the real thing. The prestigious competition often dominated by the United States will get underway Aug. 6 in Rio De Janeiro, Brazil. Before the action begins, it’s time to rank the rosters and evaluate who has the greatest chance of upsetting the reigning champions.
12. Nigeria (World Ranking: 25)
The Nigerians were never considered to be among the favourites in the competition, but the announcement that neither Al Farouq Aminu nor Festus Ezeli will join the team in Rio cemented their standing as the weakest team in the tournament. Nonetheless, they will have Chamberlain Oguchi on the roster, the 6’6″ wing that was named MVP of the 2015 AfroBasket (he plays his professional basketball in Poland).
An intriguing youngster to keep tabs on will be Michael Gbinije, a Syracuse guard that was selected 49th in the 2016 draft by the Detroit Pistons. Despite his lack of professional basketball experience, he may be asked to take on a leading role for D’Tigers.
Nigeria is a relative newcomer to major international competitions, with Rio marking only their second Olympic appearance (after a 10th-place finish in London in 2012). Their 2015 AfroBasket title was also their first. Nigeria is now producing talent at a higher rate, and their FIBA competition experience is vital in their progress towards becoming one the best teams in the world.
11. China (World Ranking: 14)
China’s win over the Philippines in the final of the 2015 FIBA Asia Championship ensured they enter Rio through the front door, led by Yi Jianlian’s performances that earned him the tournament’s MVP honors. Although he’s been out of the NBA since 2012, Jianlian is in his prime at 28 years old, and has earned four straight Chinese Basketball Association domestic MVP awards from 2013 to 2016.
Another intriguing player to watch is 7’2″ center Zhou Qi, a 2016 second round draft pick (Houston Rockets). Qi’s past includes an astounding stat line from China’s 2011 FIBA U16 World Championship game against Germany, where he recorded 41 points, 28 rebounds and 15 (!) blocks.
China placed 8th on three different occasions in the summer Olympics, the latest as hosts in 2008, and would be looking to repeat the feat in Rio. They have the quality big-men for the task in Jianlian, Qi and Zhelin, but will have to prove that their perimeter players can match the output of their centers if China is to survive the group stage.
10. Venezuela (World Ranking: 22)
At a time when the country is in a state of emergency, suffering from civil unrest due to inflation and lack of access to basic goods, its basketball team will attempt to bring a modicum of happiness to its people with a respectable performance in Rio. Venezuela’s greatest achievement in the summer Olympics was finishing 11th in 1992, and they’ve set their sights on a quarterfinals appearance, knowing they’ll have to beat the likes of China and Australia in Group A to make it to the top 8.
Making matters more difficult is the absence of Greivis Vasquez, a veteran NBA point guard who is still recovering from injuries. The team managed to shock at the FIBA Americas in Mexico last summer without him, beating a relatively star-studded Canada in the semifinals, and then Argentina in the final. Venezuela will therefore be confident they can make history without a single NBA player on the roster.
The team’s biggest star is not one of the guys running up and down the court; rather he’s the head coach – Nestor ‘Che’ Garcia. Garcia lives and breathes every second of the game on the sidelines (to put it lightly), and I recommend every sports fan watch at least one Venezuela game this summer, if only to witness what true, unadulterated passion for a sport looks like. ‘Che’ wills his team on when their talent is not enough, and his players lay it all on the line for him. Whether they’ll achieve their top-8 aims or not, Venezuela’s basketball team will certainly entertain in Rio.
9. Argentina (World Ranking: 4)
The San Antonio Spurs of international FIBA basketball, albeit not as successful. Like their NBA counterpart, they keep growing grey hairs and getting counted out, yet continuously defy expectations to reach the latter stages of most competitions. This is likely to be the last big tournament for the golden age of Argentinian basketball, as Ginobili, Delfino, Scola and Nocioni’s average age stands at 36.
For the first time in many years though, it appears that there will be worthy new blood taking the reigns of the national team behind those icons. Youngsters like Nicolas Laprovittola and Patricio Garino (recently signed by the Spurs) have shown flashes of being capable of maintaining Argentina’s status as a top basketball nation.
An interesting story to follow on the blue and whites is the return of Carlos Delfino to competitive play, as he was recovering from injuries since 2013. He looked sharp in exhibition games and will have ample motivation to earn another contract, be it in the NBA or the Euroleague. The team has a wealth of experience on the roster, which could play a major role in tense knockout games if they succeed in getting out of pool play. Although a repeat of the 2004 Olympic gold medal is unlikely, never count out the Argentinians.
8. Australia (World Ranking: 11)
The Aussies come to Rio with a roster that opponents want nothing to do with. It features the likes of Aron Baynes, Andrew Bogut and Matthew Dellavedova, as icepack manufacturers stand to see their revenues jump after every Australia game. Alongside the mainstay Mills, it’s Dellavedova who will be asked to create for himself and others, taking on a larger role than he’s used to in the NBA (a recurring theme in FIBA tournaments).
Australia qualified to the tournament by winning the FIBA Oceania Championship in 2015, a tournament that consisted of only two games between two teams, Australia and New Zealand. The Aussies won both games, and were able to turn their attention to the real challenge beginning in early August.
The roster offers other experienced NBA players like Joe Ingles and the ever-present David Andersen, combining to form a decent, if unspectacular side that will challenge for a top-8 finish. However, the overall talent level will likely not allow them to reach the lofty heights of previous Olympics (finished 4th three times).
7. Brazil (World Ranking: 9)
The host nation presents some familiar faces in Barbosa, Varejao and Nene, but doesn’t have the talent level of some of the other teams in the competition. The reason they have a very realistic chance to get through a challenging Group B is the very fact that they’re the home team. Despite the controversy surrounding the Olympic hosts, their fans will flock to their games and push them to elevate their performances.
Utah Jazz point guard Raul Neto will be asked to lead by example, as he’s entering his 4th major international tournament at 24 years of age, after a decent rookie season in the NBA. Alongside another NBA guard in Huertas, the pair will need to spread the floor and create scoring opportunities for their big men.
Brazil’s poor 2015 FIBA Americas performance notwithstanding (none of their top players featured, as they had already automatically qualified to the Olympics), they’re arriving after an impressive 6th place finish in the 2014 World Cup, which included a victory over Argentina in the round of 16 before a quarterfinal elimination at the hands of eventual runner-up Serbia. It’s likely that Argentina will be the team they need to beat once again in order to at least finish 4th in the group and set up an exciting potential match up against the United States.
6. Serbia (World Ranking: 6)
The ever-present Milos Teodosic will once again look to take the basketball-crazed nation to a medal. There is certainly talent on the team spread around some of Europe’s best clubs. However, a single name rises above the others – Nikola Jokic, the roster’s lone NBA player, carries an air of excitement about him. The 21 year-old was named MVP of the qualifying tournament, averaging 17.8 points and 7.5 rebounds per game, flashing some serious star potential.
Serbia will look to build on its 2014 World Cup appearance, where they finished second behind the United States after impressive wins over Greece and France along the way. They looked strong in the 2015 EuroBasket as well, going 7-0 until a semi-final 3-point loss to Lithuania ended their championship hopes.
They qualified to Rio after professional wins over the likes of Czech Republic and Puerto Rico this summer. The pool play will likely see them battle France for 2nd, in hopes of avoiding Spain and Lithuania in the quarterfinals.
5. Croatia (World Ranking: 12)
When it comes to international FIBA Basketball, the Croatians often take a backseat to the more illustrious former Yugoslavian nations like Serbia and even Slovenia at times. This tournament, things may turn out differently. Nearly half the roster consists of young guys playing their basketball in the modest Croatian league, but they’re not without talent. Players like Mario Hezonja (Orlando Magic), Bojan Bogdanovic (Brooklyn Nets) and former NBA player Roko Ukic will need to show leadership and a steadying presence. Though they may be the biggest names, they’re not going to be the main attraction.
Croatia’s star in this tournament will be the young Dario Saric, who is finally joining the ranks of NBA players in the upcoming season with Philadelphia. Saric earned the MVP award in the most difficult of the summer’s Olympic qualifying tournaments, as Croatia had to beat both Greece and Italy to get to Rio. Saric averaged 14 points, 10 rebounds and 2.2 assists in the four games played, and will be asked to do even more in Brazil.
Croatia’s 2014 World Cup (10th) and 2015 EuroBasket (9th) performances left a lot to be desired, but their 2016 summer showing lifted their spirits and expectations accordingly. The nation that produced Drazen Petrovic and Toni Kukoc is the dark horse this summer, and will prove a difficult obstacle for every opponent.
4. France (World Ranking: 5)
The French have proven themselves to be among the elite in FIBA basketball over the last few years, and are continuously producing quality young talent. Their 2015 EuroBakset journey ended in the semifinals in a heartbreaking overtime loss to eventual champions Spain, and they’re itching to set the record straight against their rivals. However, they did not impress in the qualifying tournament, as each of their wins was closer than expected, whether their opponent was the Philippines, Turkey, or Canada.
Although the French squad boasts a number of proven NBA players, it’s CSKA Moscow star Nando De Colo who carried them to Rio in the qualifying tournament, earning MVP honors in the process, adding to his Euroleague MVP award from the 2015-16 season. Rio will likely play out as the venue for the official passing of the torch from Tony Parker to De Colo.
The only change from the qualifying tournament is the inclusion of Utah’s athletic center Rudy Gobert, adding much-needed paint protection to the team. France will need to find their rhythm and improve from their qualifying form if they’re to challenge for a medal.
3. Lithuania (World Ranking: 3)
The only nation among the 12, and in the world perhaps, that can honestly call basketball its number one religion. A small country in the northeastern corner of Europe with a population of under three million, that has consistently produced fundamentally-sound basketball players for the Euroleague’s top teams. They’re now starting to cross the Atlantic and into the NBA, headlined by the skilled and powerful Jonas Valanciunas of the Toronto Raptors.
JV has established himself as a mainstay in the NBA, and appears ready to put Lithuania on his broad shoulders and lead them to an Olympic medal. He will have help from newly minted NBA players in Kuzminskas (New York Knicks) and Sabonis (Oklahoma City Thunder). They’ll be joined by the veteran Euroleague point guard Kalnietis, and lead a roster that will need to prove greater than the sum of its parts.
Lithuania’s 2015 EuroBasket performance was encouraging, as they finished 2nd behind only Spain, following impressive victories over Italy and Serbia. Their 2014 World Cup campaign ended in the semifinals against the United States, as they recorded a 4th-place finish. Lithuania will look to build on those experiences in the hopes of reaching the gold medal game.
2. Spain (World Ranking: 2)
Once again, the Spaniards present the most difficult challenge to the star-studded Americans. Their roster is not as talented as in past years (missing Marc Gasol), but still features a number of NBA players. The decorated veterans that will lead the way early on will be Pau Gasol, Navarro and Calderon. However, as the tournament heads towards the knockout stages, the younger talents will need to make their mark if Spain are to have a chance of eclipsing their greatest Olympic achievement (three silver medals).
Nikola Mirotic’s style of play is a perfect fit for international basketball, and he will look to relive past glories as a youngster starring in the Euroleague. He will be expected to consistently play at a high level, and a good tournament will give him the confidence needed to carve out a role in the re-modeled Chicago Bulls after a disappointing NBA season for both player and club.
The reigning EuroBasket champions will look to put the disappointing quarterfinals elimination in the 2014 World Cup behind them, and justify their standing in the basketball world as the ‘next best team’ behind the American Goliath.
1. United States (World Ranking: 1)
The team to beat. A single look at their medal count tells the story – 14 gold medals in the summer Olympics. Despite missing some of the world’s best players (LeBron James, Steph Curry), the roster is filled with NBA All-Stars looking to add to their nation’s storied tradition. If their exhibition games were any indication, the U.S. squad may not be tested until the last two games of the tournament, if at all.
Every player on the roster has a chance to leave their mark at Rio, but most eyes will focus on Paul George. The Indiana Pacers franchise player had an excellent comeback season after a horrific injury, returning to All-Star form in the process. George almost single-handedly eliminated the Toronto Raptors in the first round of the 2016 playoffs, and will look to cap off his comeback with an Olympic gold medal.
Any nation looking to take down the perennial champions will need to slow down their best shooters in Thompson, Durant, Anthony and Irving, while winning the rebounding battle against behemoths like Cousins and Jordan. A Sisyphean task if there ever was one.
Let the games begin.
