This past off-season, ESPN projected 51 wins for the Toronto Raptors – a team that’s won 48, 49, and 56 games in its last 3 seasons, is coming off a franchise high in regular season victories, as well as recent unprecedented playoff success. While it was clear that the Cavs were a clear number one in the conference, the Raptors still were, in many analysts’ eyes, the third best team in the conference behind the Boston Celtics. And yet here we are…just like the position we were in last year…and the year before…the Raptors are piling on regular season wins like its nobody’s business, keeping the Eastern Conference race interesting, and for the most part, beating teams they should beat in blow-out fashion.
This time last year, through 28 games, the Raptors had just beaten the Miami Heat in Miami to claim a 17-11 record. That was after having played the Warriors twice, as well as the Cavaliers (albeit not in the peak of their form), and going through the always-tough West Coast road trip featuring dates with the Kings, Warriors, Jazz, Lakers, and Clippers. This time around, with a virtually equal schedule in terms of difficulty, the Raptors have managed to reach historic offensive heights; but due to a defensive decline through the first 28 games, there has been a slight offset. In the end, the Raptors, at least in the win/loss column, are better now than they were this time last year. With a record of 20-8, the Raptors lurk just a game and a half behind the Cleveland Cavaliers. The Raps will not have the tiebreak, meaning they would have to fully surprass Cleveland to get the number 1 seed, which will probably prove to be too arduous a task.
Having said that, the interesting thing to note for me this season will be the Raptors win total. As a clear number 2 seed, the Raptors’ winning trend of the past 3.5 years will be put to the test once again. And while I don’t think it’s a given, it’s certainly likely that this year’s iteration of the squad can finally reach the unquestionably elite-worthy 60-win plateau. Yeah sure…to some, 60+ wins may seem like just a number (just ask San Antonio last year), but for the Raptors, it would mean so much more than just that.
The way the season shakes out is actually pretty favourable for Toronto – there are some ups-and-downs of course, as the Raptors will see over the upcoming days against a string of tough Western Conference teams on the road, but overall – the hardest part is over in a sense.
In the Raptors 28 games thus far this season, they’ve faced teams with a combined record (as of today) of about 51%. Strictly numerically, the Raptors have more favourable competition coming up, with a combined winning percentage of only 47%, and with a negative net point differential. While this is an overarching statistic that clearly glazes over many of the details, it gives an overall indication that easier times are ahead – with inevitable rough patches here and there.
Given all of those factors, and the fact that the Raptors still have Jared Sullinger in their back pocket (who Dwane Casey confirmed yesterday will be out at least for the next month), it would lead me to believe that their current winning percentage of 71% (on pace for 59 wins) may just end up being a tad better at the end of the season. And even with the slightest of improvements in the new year (perhaps on the defensive side of the ball, where the Raptors have now regressed to the 16th in the league and are significantly underachieving), it could certainly mean netting 60 wins. There are 4 more road games than home games remaining, but as evidenced by their 9-3 road record this season (better than their home record of 11-5), the Raps are road warriors. And again…the win total itself is just a number, but yet, it’s something that I think would represent a huge milestone for this franchise.
After all, no matter how good Toronto has been in the regular season or playoffs (think back to the good Raptors teams in 2000/2001, 2006/2007, 2013/2014, 2014/2015 and even last year), they’ve never been viewed as an elite, “1A” team in the league. This year, there’s Golden State and there’s Cleveland. And while the Raptors are right there knocking on the “elite” door, they’re still not invited to the party just yet. San Antonio seemed to have a seat last year with Golden State, and we’ll see how things turn out this year. But for now, the Raptors can join the Spurs, Clippers (and possibly Rockets) as the “1B” teams – teams that could hand out a ton of T-shirts in the playoffs, but in reality, don’t have a real chance in the Conference finals.
60 wins seems to have that allure to it – after all, a 60+ win record would suggest you win more than 73% of your regular season games. That’s about as guaranteed as the average free-throw percentage in the league, meaning well…you’re pretty damn good. And while all of that could very well mean nothing in mid-May when King James and his squad come to defend their title, for the Raptors, it just could mean a seat at that “elite” table.
