Right as the Toronto Raptors tipped off against the Utah Jazz on Thursday night, their chances of upsetting the Cleveland Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference Finals took a blow. No Raptor was injured on a play, or anything like that, though Kyle Lowry did roll his ankle shortly after, nearly inciting panic.
Instead, The Vertical broke the news that the Cavaliers were in the process of acquiring sharpshooter Kyle Korver from the Atlanta Hawks.
By the time the details came out, not only had the Cavaliers acquired Korver, they had managed to do so losing little from their regular rotation (Mike Dunleavy Jr., and a 2019 first-round pick), and keeping their sizable Anderson Varejao trade exception in tact. That last point is notable, because the Cavaliers still have the ability to take on more salary (for a backup point guard, perhaps), and they still have the rights to Cedi Osman to send out as trade sweetener.
In acquiring Korver, the Cavs have become even more lethal than they already were. It goes without saying that adding one of the best shooters of all time to a lineup will help, even as a specialist. Korver won’t be a specialist, though – he’ll help fill the J.R. Smith absence in the short-term, take minutes from the outbound Dunleavy and possibly Iman Shumpert, plus soak up some of the end-of-bench minutes that would need to be spread around in the postseason. He’s a good player, and good players at little cost are nice additions.
There is no diminishing return to his shooting, either. There’s an argument to be made that, like potent offenses in baseball, there’s actually the opposite with shooters. The Cavs are already flush with shooting, but Korver gives them their deadliest catch-and-shoot option yet and opens up a ton of options for head coach Tyronn Lue. Adding another marksman to spacy lineups stretches defenses out even further and makes it even harder to help-and-recover – a lineup of Kyrie Irving, Korver, LeBron James, Channing Frye, and Kevin Love would essentially make James impossible to double-team or send aggressive help on without opening up massive opportunity for the Cavs to kick and swing, a specialty of any James-led offense. Korver’s mastery off the ball can create a lot of distraction around the already deadly Irving-James or James-Love actions. There are several lineup iterations here that are suddenly much more terrifying with Korver, and the Cavs go from being nearly impossible to defend to maybe-I’ll-see-how-this-bleach-tastes.
And yes, the lineups mentioned may want for defense. It likely won’t matter for Cleveland until they see the Golden State Warriors in the NBA Finals, and even then, it’s an extra weapon to deploy (and again, at little cost). The Cavaliers can be better defensively, when locked in, than they’ve shown. We know this from last year. And points are points, so while you’d like balance and to be able to stop an opponent, simply being better in the aggregate is good, too. The best or second-best team in the NBA just got even better, and they might not be done.
We also know the Raptors were already a step or two behind the Cavs. They took Cleveland to six games last year, yes, but the series wasn’t as close as that suggested (they were blown out in each loss, sometimes viciously), and the Cavs took a trio of close games between the two teams this year. It’s worth repeating that being in the league’s second tier for the second year in a row is not a bad place to be, but anyone who believed the Raptors were set for a linear step forward, as currently constructed, was being a little too optimistic.
Now that the Cavs have improved and are showing such aggression to continue to do so, the gap between the two teams has widened. The Raptors would have been a sizable underdog against Cleveland, and they still will be, with precious little in the way of a defensive answer over the course of seven games.
The Korver deal, then, poses a tough and interesting question for Toronto: Does this make them more likely to trade for an extra piece, or less likely?
As has been discussed here ad nauseam of late, the Raptors are among the teams who have reportedly made calls on Paul Millsap, along with Denver, Sacramento, and Philadelphia. With the Hawks dealing Korver, speculation is only going to ramp up about the Hawks’ mini-tear down, and true to form, reports after the Korver deal suggested talks were heating up. The Hawks are clearly motivated sellers, they clearly don’t care to wait for the trade deadline, and they will jump on the right deal if it presents itself.
This doesn’t necessarily make it a given that Toronto will continue to be aggressive here. There is strong logic behind dealing for Millsap. He would be a great on-court fit at both ends and, it seems, a quality off-court one (DeMarre Carroll was raving about him after Thursday’s game, while being careful not to cross any tampering lines or saying anything he shouldn’t). He would make the Raptors significantly better on defense while also adding an extra, important element on offense outside of Toronto’s current two-headed monster. As discussed on today’s podcast, he is a very, very good, and criminally underrated player who would give the Raptors three top-25 players.
Millsap, then,would still make the Raptors much, much better.
The issue, though, is that Millsap wouldn’t push the Raptors quite to Cleveland’s level. That was true before the Korver deal, but Millsap would have added enough to at least make it a conversation, shrinking the gap and giving Toronto more weapons in creating a two-way strategy to match Cleveland. The addition of Korver isn’t bigger than a Millsap one would be – the marginal gain of adding a top-25 piece for Toronto is enormous, qualitatively, while Cleveland can only play so many studs – but it moves the needle, and Cleveland maintaining that sizable trade exception is just as scary. Millsap already wouldn’t have closed the gap completely, and now the gap his acquisition would be looking to close is even wider.
There are a couple of different ways to look at this. On the one hand, if the Raptors want to represent any semblance of competition, Cleveland’s aggression ratchets up the pressure to make a move here. They’re falling further behind, as it were, and Millsap becomes even more important. On the other, the overall value of adding Millsap for this year is probably a little less, if we’re being honest, and so the Raptors shouldn’t be as aggressive – moving the Eastern Conference Finals odds from 15 percent to 35 percent is a lot more important than moving them from 10 percent to 20 percent (I’m using completely arbitrary numbers here). The marginal value of Millsap this year may have decreased, as it were, and Millsap becomes even less important.
Whichever side of that fence you fall on – and either is justified, I think – the accounting of a Millsap deal has to change at least a little bit.
Acquiring Millsap’s Bird rights in free agency, and thus the option to keep a Lowry-DeRozan-Millsap competitive window open for the next several years, takes on a greater weight in the accounting. Adding Millsap might not make up enough ground this year, but adding him to the core moving forward puts the Raptors in a stronger position next year. So if the Raptors weren’t entirely sure Millsap would re-sign, or if they were on the fence about potentially paying that trio up to $100 million annually starting next year (likely shedding some salary in the process), they have to consider the next few years even more. There’s also now a greater cost to losing future assets, depending on how you want to frame it. You could suggest that the window two years from now is a more realistic opportunity than the one this year – James will eventually age, Cleveland is becoming quite low on marketable trade assets, the Raptors are still young and improving – and if that’s the reality, the future value of picks, prospects, or even a reasonably priced Terrence Ross might be higher than an aging Millsap on a large contract (it’s hard to say, but Millsap’s game should age well).
Again, people are going to feel different ways about the Cavs being aggressive and what the Raptors should do in response. It’s not my aim to tell anyone how to be a fan, or that they should root for aggression or caution, an all-in approach or an eye for the future. But it’s worth re-evaluating your thoughts on a potential Millsap deal, because the balance in the Eastern Conference has shifted a little and could shift even more in the coming weeks.
Personally, I think the Korver move makes a Millsap addition less of an impact right now, but still a worthwhile one given the chance to re-sign Millsap and move forward with three potential All-Stars, depending on the ultimate asking price. That creates a precarious cap scenario, but there aren’t many other paths to top-loading a roster like that, and amassing talent at the top is important. There’s also not another clear path to taking the next step this offseason, because the Raptors are unlikely to be able to wiggle into cap room. You can pay Millsap whatever it ends up costing, or you can pay Patrick Patterson about $15 million annually, or you can pay neither and continue the perpetual search for a power forward as Lowry hits the back-end of his prime. You could hold the assets for a different trade, or continue to bank on chemistry, continuity, and development (a smart, if unsexy approach in most cases), but they may wind up repeating at this same sub-Cleveland level for a third year in a row (a good, if unsexy place to be). Players of Millsap’s ilk don’t often become available to team’s in Toronto’s position, and it would be tough to walk away from the table on such a move.
The price on Korver was low, and the other suitors calling on Millsap might not have the same willingness to pay (Sacramento and Denver are highly motivated to reach the playoffs, but the Kings are low on assets and the Nuggets are an awkward trade partner, salary-wise). It’s also reasonable to assume the Cavs getting even stronger would take some teams out of the buyer’s market – is Boston really going to cash in that Nets pick chip in this competitive environment? – so Atlanta may have fewer offers. On the podcast, Brad Rowland and I came to a rough agreement of Ross, Jakob Poeltl, Jared Sullinger (for salary purposes), and a first-round pick for Millsap. If you can take out Poeltl or the pick, maybe that’s still worth it. Maybe it is as constructed; there just aren’t many other ways to get a Millsap. I’d probably pay a little less in a “give me your best offer or we’re done” situation than I would have 24 hours ago, but the Korver deal doesn’t scare me off entirely.
This whole situation has grown even more complicated. I think there are several ways you could feel about a Millsap acquisition, and I wouldn’t fault you for most of them. (Mostly, I’m feeling that the Cavs are annoying.) Millsap is very good, and adding a very good player is, umm, very good. Hot take, I know. Anyway, I’m curious to hear if and how the Korver deal has shaped or changed any of your opinions.
