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Is Patrick Patterson A Potential Sixth Man of the Year Candidate?

Since the NBA awards are decided by an array of writers and broadcasters, the definition of some of the awards can mean different things to different people. The MVP could mean the best player on the best team, the best statistical season from a singular player, or the player who is most impactful for their…

Since the NBA awards are decided by an array of writers and broadcasters, the definition of some of the awards can mean different things to different people. The MVP could mean the best player on the best team, the best statistical season from a singular player, or the player who is most impactful for their team. These are all valid answers, and when it comes to the MVP voting process, there really haven’t been too many surprises straying away from the consensus pick.

While the term MVP might have different meanings to different people, it’s still a very well thought out award,but unfortunately the same can’t be said for some other NBA awards. The Sixth Man of the Year Award, has been the player who average the most points off the bench for a playoff team, not always the best player/most impactful player off the bench.

Last season, Jamal Crawford took home his third Sixth Man Award. He had a great season, scoring efficiently off the bench, playing 27 minutes per game, making only five starts all season. In the voting process, Crawford got 51 first-place votes, 341 total voting points, while Andre Iguodala came second with 33 first-place votes, and 288 total vote points. I’m in the camp that Iguodala should have taken home the award, for the impact he made on both ends of the floor, leading a bench unit that helped the Warriors win 73 regular season games.

Both Crawford and Iguodala played 26mpg, but Iguodala averaged more rebounds and assists,  and is by far the superior defender in this comparison. The difference is that Crawford averaged double the amount of points per game, took 6.2 more shots per game, and doubled Iguodala’s USG% in the process. Crawford had a great year, there’s no denying that, and he continues to make a big scoring impact off the bench for the Clippers, but if you’re looking at making an overall impact to the game, it seems as though Iguodalas’ impact was felt more.

This year it will probably be much of the same process in voting. The early winner based off past voting results, seems to be leaning towards Rockets shooting guard Eric Gordon. Gordon is very deserving of the award, he’s averaging 17.8 points per game, shooting a blistering 41% from three, on over 9 three point attempts per game (I can’t believe I just wrote those numbers). Also, the Rockets are a really, really good team this year. He’s made 8 starts so far this season, but with Patrick Beverly back in the starting lineup, Gordon will be coming off the bench for the foreseeable future.

If someone, who isn’t known as much for their scoring prowess is going to get votes, it should be the Raptors Patrick Patterson.  Last year Patterson got one third place vote in the Sixth Man award from ESPN’s Ramona Shelburne, and much like last year, his box score numbers off the bench are not jaw dropping. This season, he’s averaging 7.1 points, 5.5 rebounds, and sporting a 50% TS%, yet he’s averaging a career high 28 minutes per game, and finishing out most games in the fourth quarter. Patterson isn’t the player who’s going to lead the team in scoring or rebounds in a game, but his impact on the floor is greatly felt in the Raptors rotations.

Eric Koreen of the Athletic wrote a great article asking players, coaches, and Raptors front office staff, “What is Patterson’s greatest skill?”. The answers included versatility on defense, coach Casey called him a “glue guy” (not a skill), and three point shooting (which Patterson isn’t really ‘great’ at). The struggle to find a consistent answer shows that Patterson isn’t really great at one thing, but he’s pretty good to okay at just about everything.

All of the Raptors most efficient lineups include Patterson in them. The starting unit of Lowry/DeRozan/Carroll/Siakam/Valanciunas have played a total of 321 minutes together this year, and this lineup in large part is the reason why the Raptors struggle sometimes offensively to start games. With a net rating of -5.9, and an offensive rating of 107.7, defenders tend to sag off of Pascal Siakam in the pick and roll, and whenever he receives the ball on an open mid-range shot, the defenders let him take it. Siakam has outperformed all expectations of him this year, but for a team with lofty expectations, those rookie mistakes can be devastating in big games. Some coaches will say, “It’s not about who start the games, it’s who finishes it.” Patterson is always finding floor time down the stretch. As you can see from the visual below developed by Phil Roth on http://nbarotations.info, the red shaded areas are when Patterson is on the floor, and the black shaded areas are when he’s on the bench. Patterson is seeing time with around five minutes remaining in the first quarter, plays until midway through the second, and comes back onto the floor for the remainder of the game halfway through the third.

 

The Raptors second and third most used lineups are both ultra efficient, and feature Patterson. The Lowry+Bench unit has a net rating of +23.2, scoring at will, with a perfect mix of skillful shooting, screen and roll action from Lucas Nogueira, and players who are capable of finishing at the rim. The other lineup being the starters, with Patterson inserted in for Siakam. This lineup has a 26.4 net rating, is slightly better defensively, and scores even more efficiently than the Lowry+Bench unit. It’s no coincidence that Patterson finds himself on two of the most efficient lineups in the NBA, his presence has a massive impact on both ends of the floor.

Patterson biggest asset to the team is on the defensive end. His strength and quick lateral movement, allow him to switch on to much bigger wings or centers and not get bullied by them, and then switching right back onto and overpower smaller guards, while keeping up with their speed. His one-on-one defense usually has him matching up against the team’s best scorer down the stretch of games.

The Raptors take the quality over quantity approach when shooting threes, with both DeMar DeRozan, and Jonas Valanciunas, who are experts around the rim, and need the space to do so. Patterson’s main value on the offensive end is simply that he stands on the perimeter, spacing out for easy drive and kick threes. Patterson isn’t a great three point shooter by any means, but just by standing in the corner the defense has no choice but to always have a defenders eyes locked on Patterson. With 20.1% of all his threes attempted, the closest defender is 4-6 feet away (which is considered open), on those open shots he’s shooting 29.5% from three, when he has more than 6+ feet of space which is 42.5% of all his threes, he’s shooting 38.7% from three. These numbers aren’t great, and the Raptors offense would probably take another step forward if Patterson became more effective from deep, but for right now his game is quite limited on the offensive end. Patterson’s ability to drive to the basket lacks the ball handling skills, but Patterson does a great job playing within his own game. He doesn’t force drives to the basket when they aren’t there, has an amazing basketball IQ, is a very willing passer who rarely takes a bad shot.

Patterson had his first start of the season this week against the Celtics, where he still looked a step slow getting back from his injury. When healthy on a nightly basis, Patterson is arguably the third most important Raptor behind only Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan. Without Patterson in the lineup this year, the Raptors are 3-2, two of those wins coming against the Brooklyn Nets, and Los Angeles Lakers who are a few tiers below the Raptors in the NBA’s totem poll, and the two losses were absolute blowouts in San Antonio, and against the Chicago Bulls last week. Sure, you could easily chalk both of those games up to the tough schedule the Raptors were playing at the time, but Patterson’s defense/spacing was surely missed in both games.

This coming offseason, Patterson will become an unrestricted free agent, and teams will be looking into his lineup stats, his defense, floor spacing, and will consider signing him for somewhere around $15mil per season. With the success he’s having in Toronto, Jeff Weltman and Masai Ujiri won’t be to quick to let him go. Patterson has become a core part of Toronto’s winning culture since the Rudy Gay trade.

Back on December 8th against the Minnesota Timberwolves, DeRozan and Lowry during halftime went and accepted their USA Gold Medals won during the 2016 Rio Olympics. Patterson snuck behind the cameras and ribbed his teammates on with applause and some Oscar worthy fake crying. Patterson’s impact may not be seen in the box score, instead the essence of who Patterson is making the players around him better, being the defensive anchor, doing all this in the most important parts of the game, and as mentioned by Dwayne Casey “he’s the glue guy.”

 

 

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